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Reds Tidbits (2007 Season)

Bestbuck36;763311; said:
Post #103

I could feel it before ST started and its going to come to fruition. Paul Wilson is going to make this team as the #5 starter. The Reds have had a penchant for the "Comeback Player of the Year" and I feel it. This year will be Paul Wilson. No all star performance but about 11 or 12 wins and an ERA hovering at 4. The beauty of this is that we'll be more inclined to deal a guy like Milton, that Krivsky loves and fans dont, without losing that veteran experience and bring in Homer by the all star break.

Now if we can just find enough offense! C'mon Hamilton, give Wilson a run for his CPOY honors. Hehe.:biggrin:

He hasn't thrown to a real batter yet. Maybe a little early for this premonition? Don't get me wrong, it would be great for the Reds if Wilson could make this team, but let's let him throw some games before we anoint him #5.

As for trading Milton, with a 10 mill contract and average stats, there are few teams who would be willing to roll the dice on him. We'd have to eat a lot of the contract and not expect much in return. (I can't believe I am saying this, but) It'd actually make more sense to keep him and just ride it out.

Where Wilson could really help us is injury protection. If he could win the 5, we'd be able to keep Belile and Saroloos and Ramirez as protection.

In the end, I'd be happy if any one of the 4 stepped up and showed he was worthy of the number 5 (and Lohse deserved anywhere near the praise Narron has throw at him this spring).
 
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Bestbuck36;763311; said:
Post #103

I could feel it before ST started and its going to come to fruition. Paul Wilson is going to make this team as the #5 starter. The Reds have had a penchant for the "Comeback Player of the Year" and I feel it. This year will be Paul Wilson. No all star performance but about 11 or 12 wins and an ERA hovering at 4. The beauty of this is that we'll be more inclined to deal a guy like Milton, that Krivsky loves and fans dont, without losing that veteran experience and bring in Homer by the all star break.

Now if we can just find enough offense! C'mon Hamilton, give Wilson a run for his CPOY honors. Hehe.:biggrin:


An ERA hovering around 4 is better than league average. No way in hell Wilson pulls that off. More like hovering around 5.00 imo.

Krivsky has been very critical of Milton on many occasions. It was Dan O that had Milton man love.
 
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Okinawa's#1Buck;763461; said:
In the end, I'd be happy if any one of the 4 stepped up and showed he was worthy of the number 5 (and Lohse deserved anywhere near the praise Narron has throw at him this spring).

After further consideration, I'd like to amend this statement. What would really make me happy is if any starter stepped up and showed he was worthy of the #3 spot, closely followed by the #4. If somehow Milton could be worked down to the #5 spot, I would be estatic. If what Jax said is true about his knees, he may actually be more effective as a 5 getting more rest between starts, and that would mean we've progressed to the point where we don't have to throw a guy in as 3 or 4 just because he is being paid as such.
 
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Okinawa's#1Buck;764030; said:
. If what Jax said is true about his knees, he may actually be more effective as a 5 getting more rest between starts, and that would mean we've progressed to the point where we don't have to throw a guy in as 3 or 4 just because he is being paid as such.


Oh its true. Sadly enough it was pretty well known BEFORE that dumb fuck Dan O gave him the monster contract.

Lifted this from RZ for a point of reference:

From December 5th, 2003 ...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2472


The trade of Eric Milton to the Philadelphia Phillies in return for Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, and a MLTBNLATRFD (minor leaguer to be named later, after the Rule 5 draft) is one fraught with medhead angst. Milton, of course, is coming off a season defined by and almost completely lost to an extensive knee surgery. Is this surgery the reason that the Twins were willing to move him, or was his 17-inning audition at the end of the 2003 season enough for the Phillies to be satisfied that he can move into a rotation that may lose ace Kevin Millwood?

Like most instances where baseball and medicine meet, the answer is "both." After Milton's late-March knee surgery, details came out about the severe deterioration that was found despite his relatively youthful age of 27 (he's now 28). His surgeon, Dr. Thomas Rosenberg had operated earlier in 2003 on Tiger Woods, but unlike Woods' relatively simple surgery, Rosenberg found Milton's knee required much more extensive work. In the procedure, Rosenberg removed more than 30 discreet pieces of cartilage from both the medial and lateral meniscus. He was also forced to debride what was described as significant osteoarthritis from the knee both above and below the joint. As you can see from this illustration and description of similar procedures, Milton's knee likely looked like that of a much older person that may at some point be a candidate for complete joint replacement in order to maintain function.

The six-month recovery and involved rehabilitation that Milton went through in order to return to the game went according to plan, according to Twins sources. Once he began to pitch again, both in drill and during a brief minor league rehab stint, it was clear that at least in the short term, Milton was able to return to his previous level of pitching. There is, however, a significant worry that his knee will continue to degrade over the course of a full season, endangering his ability to contribute as expected. It's one thing to pitch 17 good innings and quite another to the reach the 200-inning level for which the Phillies are paying.

Milton's injury is similar to, but much more advanced than that of fellow lefty Randy Johnson. Johnson was able to come back after injections of synvisc, a synthetic lubricant that seeks to reduce bone-on-bone friction in the absence of normal, natural shock absorbers. There is a great deal of disagreement over which, if any, technique is more effective in the long-term, but sports medicine often takes an odd perspective on both efficacy and function. There is clearly room for interpretation and individuality. Where both techniques returned the respective pitchers to function, both are also likely to be walking around with their children and grandchildren on a replacement joint. It is one price of professional sports that we seldom see.

The Phillies receive a pitcher with significant risk of recurrence who will likely pitch--and walk--with some level of pain. It is Milton's pain tolerance and the abilities of the Phillies' medical staff that will decide his effectiveness on the mound. The team takes on a one-year risk, which given the usual timeframe for recurrence, is only slightly elevated over a normal pitcher of this age. They also deal with a known quantity: By knowing the level of damage, the Phillies' staff will be able to come up with a plan to keep Milton as healthy as possible, something they were unable to do in Minnesota before the problem showed up.
 
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Okinawa's#1Buck;763461; said:
He hasn't thrown to a real batter yet. Maybe a little early for this premonition? Don't get me wrong, it would be great for the Reds if Wilson could make this team, but let's let him throw some games before we anoint him #5.

As for trading Milton, with a 10 mill contract and average stats, there are few teams who would be willing to roll the dice on him. We'd have to eat a lot of the contract and not expect much in return. (I can't believe I am saying this, but) It'd actually make more sense to keep him and just ride it out.

Where Wilson could really help us is injury protection. If he could win the 5, we'd be able to keep Belile and Saroloos and Ramirez as protection.

In the end, I'd be happy if any one of the 4 stepped up and showed he was worthy of the number 5 (and Lohse deserved anywhere near the praise Narron has throw at him this spring).

Hey, premonitions dont work on a schedule they just come when they come. Yes its still early but it is going to happen.
 
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Okinawa's#1Buck;764429; said:
Jax,

That is a great read. It stuns me that I never heard this before or since his huge deal was signed. Props and greenies for the post.

I didn't even need to know that to know it wasn't worth signing Milton to that contract. He had a good number of Ws the year before, but his ERA and Whip were not good. Got paid for a career year. Dumb, dumb signing. I do appreciate the fact that he has tried to pitch through the pain. It would be nice to see Wilson bounce back, but I think if he does make the team it will be in relief. I don't know what they are talking with this nonsense of maybe only carrying 11 pitchers. Unless starters 3-5 start being good for more than 5 innings, this makes no sense.
 
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Some thoughts on Milty:

Milton is actually tradeable this year if he can put up some decent #'s for a stretch. The recent insanity in the pitching FA department actually made his contract "average" and its over this year anyway. I don't think he's physically capable of a decent half season, I don't have faith in Krivsky to do it but theoretically speaking, Milty is tradeable.

At one point about mid season last year he had #'s better than the backend guys of both NY teams...that was the time to trade him imo. Sell it to the Mets and include how much better he would be in Shea vs GAB, but thats all over now. You only get comp picks if you make an offer to a FA and he leaves anyway, I don't think you can take that risk with Milton. I forsee a big fat ZERO in return for him and watching him just walk off into the sunset at the end of the year. Of course there is something to be said for addition by subtraction.

Let me just take one second to say my piece on something that was mentioned above. For all the ripping on him I, and every Reds fan alive, do I want to tip my hat to him for how hard he tries and the pain he goes through. I know he's making sick money but the guy's going beyond what he actually has to do. Baseball contracts are guaranteed, he could ride those knees on the DL for as long as he wants to and still get paid. Instead he sticks it out, endures the pain and the humiliation of what those bum knees do to his game. I guarantee his pride is in more pain than his knees.

It's not his fault Dan O gave him that fucked up contract, but to his credit as a man he's done everything in his power to at least try to earn it in the world of what he does. He's failed but at least he's tried and still has never quit. I have nothing but repect for him as a person.
 
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No need to worry about a fifth starter?


FOUR-MAN ROTATION: Narron spent a lot of time discussing the four-man rotation Wednesday.
"I really believe Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo could pitch in a four-man rotation," he said.
"I just know baseball-wise it was a four-man rotation for 100 years and there were no pitch counts. Now we've got pitch counts and we're on a five-man rotation. Seems like it would be the other way around," Narron said.
"As much as anything, it's what pitchers get accustomed to. Pitchers are accustomed to five days."
After all the discussion, Narron added: "We're talking about something that's not going to happen."


Thanks goodness. I was worried when I started reading this. We finally get enough candidates to scrape together a decent rotation and this comes up. The story also talks about a promising reliever, Brad Salmon and more.
 
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Heard a few good things about Homer on the radio this morning. After yesterday's intersquad game, Javy Valentine who caught him said he's ready. Adam Dunn who faced him said "count me on the bandwagon" and said he had a "nasty" change-up.

Reminder: 1st Spring Training game is today at 1:05ET and is on the Reds Radio Network!
 
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Okinawa's#1Buck;766957; said:
No need to worry about a fifth starter?


FOUR-MAN ROTATION: Narron spent a lot of time discussing the four-man rotation Wednesday.
"I really believe Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo could pitch in a four-man rotation," he said.
"I just know baseball-wise it was a four-man rotation for 100 years and there were no pitch counts. Now we've got pitch counts and we're on a five-man rotation. Seems like it would be the other way around," Narron said.
"As much as anything, it's what pitchers get accustomed to. Pitchers are accustomed to five days."
After all the discussion, Narron added: "We're talking about something that's not going to happen."


Thanks goodness. I was worried when I started reading this. We finally get enough candidates to scrape together a decent rotation and this comes up. The story also talks about a promising reliever, Brad Salmon and more.

I can't believe I'm saying this but I agree with Jerry 100%. The 5th starter spot doesn't need to take up a roster position because it isn't a true occurence. With days off and such you can use a good long reliever/5th starter guy from the pen imo. Or think of it like this, that 12 pitcher on any MLB team is marginal at best and gets used maybe once or twice a week. I'd rather have the extra bench guy.

MuckFich06;767101; said:
Heard a few good things about Homer on the radio this morning. After yesterday's intersquad game, Javy Valentine who caught him said he's ready. Adam Dunn who faced him said "count me on the bandwagon" and said he had a "nasty" change-up.

Reminder: 1st Spring Training game is today at 1:05ET and is on the Reds Radio Network!

I think they are going extra slow with Homer and I'm ok with that. They are concerned with the mental side which IMO is most important. No matter how filthy a guys stuff is at some point he gets lit up by MLB hitters. We want to make sure that doesn't have any ill effects on Homers psyche. Let him learn to dominate at every stop along the way after being initially challenged and build some true, deep and genuine confidence. Guys with just as much talent as HB have gone to shit because their confidence was shattered and thats the only thing left for him if his change up(3rd pitch) is as nasty as they say it is.

BTW it was at this time last year a lot of very knowledgable scout types were afraid his top end may have been as a closer because he only had the fastball and curve. The rate at which he's mastered the change(thank you Mario Soto) has been impressive indeed and is the reason he's now projected as a clear #1 ace type starter. Casual fans have thought he was always slotted for that but there was a real doubt inside up to about 1 year ago.


Just good to have baseball back.
 
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I like the idea of a 4 man rotation and the use of a long reliever like a guy like Belisle, Wilson, Sarloos, and you could really go about 4 innings for one fo them and 4 for another...B/c those guys are the guys that seem to throw good for about 4 innings and that is about it...
 
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MuckFich06;767566; said:
Just heard on the game that the Reds have signed Hermanson.

Beat me to it. Injured most of last year, but logged a 2.04 era with 34 saves in 57 appearances for the ChiSox in 2004. And his career 1.13 GB/FB ratio isn't bad, at least not in comparison to the other guys. :)
 
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