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QB Troy Smith (2006 Heisman Trophy Winner)

Deety's Daily Stat Break

In the thread at this LINK, it was shown that the quarterbacks with the fewest attempts (but still the minimum 15 required to be ranked) had the lowest passing efficiency ratings, on average.

That was strictly true last year. If you list the QBs in order based on attempts per game and take any 10 consecutive QBs from the list, the group with the lowest average efficiency was the bottom 10 in terms of attempts per game.

Over the last 6 years this was also true, but there was one other group that faired as badly; the group with somewhere around 21-23 attempts per game.

Last year, being in this group was double bad, as the bottom 10 (in attempts per game) included Marcus Vick, at 22.23 attempts per game. By way of comparison, the 10th fewest attempts per game was less than 18 per game in 2000 and 2001.

Recall from a previous post that Troy Smith had 21.55 attempts per game last year, placing him in the bottom 10 in attempts per game. While his peers in this group averaged a humble rating of 115.23, Troy's rating was a manly 162.7.

To state it plainly, Troy Smith had a QB rating 47 and a half points higher than those who had a similar number of attempts per game. Last year, 47 and a half points was more than the difference between being ranked #4 (Troy Smith) and being ranked #74 (Andre Woodson of Kentucky). I can promise you that this is the only context in which Troy Smith and Andre Woodson can be mentioned in the same sentence.

All Hail the Glory of Troy Smith
 
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I love TS. But, it's hard to forget his past. Every time I see his name come up I get queasy. And pray.
We all hope THIS will be the year he leades this team to a NC.

And Santonio has been an exemplary Buckeye. And a fan favorite.
 
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I love TS. But, it's hard to forget his past. Every time I see his name come up I get queasy. And pray.
We all hope THIS will be the year he leades this team to a NC.

And Santonio has been an exemplary Buckeye. And a fan favorite.

Let's keep in mind that his suspension at the beginning of last year was for an infraction that was, by then, several months old. If Troy stays as clean as he's been for the last 1 and a half years, if his reformation is as genuine as it appears; then his career will be a shining monument to the leadership of Jim Tressel. How many players have had those kinds of problems and experienced a legit turn-around while still in college? Very few I expect. No doubt such a transformation recommends the man himself, but there is even less doubt of the role that his coach has played in his life. Just ask Troy.
 
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Recall from a previous post that Troy Smith had 21.55 attempts per game last year, placing him in the bottom 10 in attempts per game. While his peers in this group averaged a humble rating of 115.23, Troy's rating was a manly 162.7.
I would argue that with the way that the passer efficiency rating is formulated for college football, attempts are the least significant stat in the equation. Because of the multiplicative nature of the formula, a far greater emphasis is on throwing TDs, especially long TDs, and avoiding INTs.

8.4 * YDs + 330 * TDs - 200 * INTs + 100 * COMPs / ATTs

Using Troy Smith's 2005 season as a baseline:

8.4 * 2285 + 330 * 16 - 200 * 4 + 100 * 149 / 237
or
19194 + 5280 - 800 + 14900 / 237
or
38574 / 237
or
162.75949

Troy averaged 9.64 yards per pass completion. Modifying each number down the row to show the adjusted efficiency rating under four different scenarios:

One fewer COMP (presumes loss of YDs using avg): 161.98312
One fewer TD (all other stats are equal): 161.36708
One more INT (all other stats are equal): 161.91561
One more ATT (all other stats are equal, the ATT was incomplete): 162.07563

The best way to boost a pass efficiency rating is with long pass play TDs. As mentioned, with the formula being heavily multiplicative, a long pass play TD bumps the passers' YDs, TDs, and COMPs, while not detracting with additional ATTs. So, as worked above, a COMP is worth .8, an INT is worth .8, a TD is worth 1.4, an ATT is worth about .7.

So, the big killer is throwing an INT in the red zone (duh!). :biggrin: If you adjust all stats on the line accordingly, presume a 10 yard completion for a TD was actually picked off in the end zone, then a passers' rating drops by over 3 full points since you must lower the YDs, COMPs, and TDs numbers while factoring in the INT.

What does all this mean? Well, obviously, I'll never dispute that Troy Smith is a great, great QB. He has a fantastic arm and he's earned that pass efficiency rating with his performance on the field. However, having threats like Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, and Ted Ginn Jr who can bust plays off for 40, 60 or even 85 yards really inflates that passer stat quick. Troy's numbers will be affected as much by how TGII handles sliding into 'Tone's #1 receiver spot than by anything TS does or can do on a football field or in a film room.
 
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Let's keep in mind that his suspension at the beginning of last year was for an infraction that was, by then, several months old. If Troy stays as clean as he's been for the last 1 and a half years, if his reformation is as genuine as it appears; then his career will be a shining monument to the leadership of Jim Tressel. How many players have had those kinds of problems and experienced a legit turn-around while still in college? Very few I expect. No doubt such a transformation recommends the man himself, but there is even less doubt of the role that his coach has played in his life. Just ask Troy.
the infraction occurred in the spring before the 04 season.
 
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Dryden, your ability to look beyond the numbers is amazing. I agree with every point you make. I'll just defend my post by repeating something I said in another thread. The numerical correlation between attempts and efficiency is counter-intuitive to me. It fell out of my spread-sheet, and it gives us a different angle from which to view the greatness of our favorite quarterback. That's the only reason I mentioned it. Well, that and Deety "asked" for more stat breaks.

Let me add to your last point by saying that a QB like Troy Smith is exactly what elusive burners like Ginn[sup]2[/sup] and Gonzalez need. Troy's rocket arm gets the ball to them before the defenders can close all of the distance to the receiver. This gives our blazing wide-outs a quarter of a second to make a move to shake the first tackler. That is frequently all they need.

That is why the videos in this thread are more articulate than any of the stats that you and I can provide.
 
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Troy's rocket arm gets the ball to them before the defenders can close all of the distance to the receiver. This gives our blazing wide-outs a quarter of a second to make a move to shake the first tackler. That is frequently all they need.

That is why the videos in this thread are more articulate than any of the stats that you and I can provide.

Well... I wouldn't go that far. I love reading all about Troy Smith's awesome stats on this board. It makes me happy.

Oh, and just in case you missed it the first time, go see my Troy Smith for Heisman video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF0OS5B0kaE
 
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Deety's Daily Stat Break

This is the 5th of 7 Stat Breaks done at Deety's "request".

Today's installment deals with the simple matter of Yards per Attempt. At 9.63, Troy Smith was second only to Rudy Carpenter last year.

Yes, there's that name again. It seems the ASU freshman phenomenon keeps popping up in this thread. The same Rudy Carpenter who didn't face a defense ranked as high in passing efficiency as the average of the defenses Troy went against. The same Rudy Carpenter that faced defenses with an average rank of 92.9.

I'm not picking on Rudy. He had a great season, and there were quarterbacks who weren't freshmen that faced total crap-fest schedules and didn't do as well as he did.

Just don't let anyone tell you that he's better than Troy Smith. Judging from the pre-season magazines that I've seen so far, that's not likely to happen. But if it does, remember my sig and grab some duct tape.
 
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Dispatch

6/23/06

OSU QUARTERBACK’S FORMER EMPLOYER

Gambling-related Web site’s operator cleared in investigation

Friday, June 23, 2006

Jim Woods
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

<!--PHOTOS--><TABLE class=phototableright align=right border=0><!-- begin large ad code --><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE align=center><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Bernie Fernandez Jr., whose interactions with Ohio State University quarterback Troy Smith raised concerns with university officials, is no longer the subject of a gambling investigation by the Franklin County sheriff’s office.

Deputies raided Fernandez’s home on the Far North Side in October, taking computers, business records, credit cards and a cell phone.

Cpl. Dave Hunt of the sheriff’s office said yesterday that there isn’t enough evidence to charge Fernandez. The sheriff’s office closed its investigation and returned the items seized.

Fernandez, 44, said his business as a Website designer was hurt because the sheriff’s office held onto his records for eight months.

"It put me through a year of anguish," he said.

OSU athletic officials warned Smith in 2003 about associating with Fernandez because of a gambling-related Web site that Fernandez still operates, Pokertopia.com. The site serves as a gateway to online casinos.

Smith was paid $200 to $300 for a summer job passing out fliers for another Web site that Fernandez ran. The quarterback left two tickets for Fernandez for a home game against North Carolina State in 2003. Smith said in a February interview that he no longer speaks with Fernandez.

Fernandez said many people misunderstood the Pokertopia site. He said he never took bets himself and was never a bookmaker.

While Fernandez has been cleared, Ohio State will keep him on its "watch list" of people whom players should beware of, said Steve Snapp, associate athletics director for communications.

"I don’t think this changes his status," Snapp said. "It’s important not to put athletes in a precarious position. And I think we want to err on the safe side."

The watch list supposedly includes people OSU officials think players should avoid because they might seek inside information about the program.

Football coach Jim Tressel, in a February interview, said there were about 25 people on the list. The department would not supply the other names.

The investigation of Fernandez was triggered by allegations of bookmaking raised by convicted swindler David Cahall, Hunt said.

Fernandez said he invested $200,000 with Cahall, who was convicted of fraudulently soliciting at least $1.8 million from investors to finance the sale of discount clothing to chain stores. Cahall, a Westervillearea resident who actually was running a Ponzi scheme, was sentenced in January to five years in prison by a Delaware County judge.

[email protected]
 
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I love TS. But, it's hard to forget his past. Every time I see his name come up I get queasy. And pray.
We all hope THIS will be the year he leades this team to a NC.

And Santonio has been an exemplary Buckeye. And a fan favorite.

There is really no need to worry about Troy. A sense of purpose and stability in life help a man away from trouble. Considering TS's dedication and current life style, I think we have a leader who provides peaceful mind to coaches, teammates, and fans like us.

Santonio's recent incident really has little, if any, bearing on TS's situation.
 
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Deety's Daily Stat Break

Today's reminder of the consumate greatness of Troy Smith gets directly to the heart of the matter.

What do you think of when I say "Troy Smith"?
  • Victories against tsun?
  • Cool under fire?
  • Big plays when they're needed most?
You could take all of the "first impression" thoughts of everyone on this board and they could be summed up with one word:

CLUTCH!!

Until now, this has been neither more nor less than the common knowledge of all Buckeye fans based on watching Troy play. But now, if someone asks which QB in Division IA you would want when all of the marbles are on the line; you can point to the table below and show them that there is an objective answer to that question.

To put it another way: Of the top 13 QBs in America last year (those with efficiency > 150); which had the highest aggregate rating against:​
  • Their Rival
  • Their Bowl Opponent
If the team didn't make it to a bowl, I just took the games against the two biggest opponents. The results are shown below as "Big Game Efficiency":

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 109pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=144 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 74pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3584" width=98><COL style="WIDTH: 35pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1682" width=46><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 39pt" height=52><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 74pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 39pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=98 height=52>Player</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=46>Big Game Eff.</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Troy Smith</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="168.96615384615384">168.97</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>John Stocco</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="160.23396226415096">160.23</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Colt Brennan</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="159.68695652173915">159.69</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Rudy Carpenter</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="158.46111111111111">158.46</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Drew Stanton</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="155.83030303030301">155.83</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Matt Leinart</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="137.8388888888889">137.84</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Omar Jacobs</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="134.04155844155846">134.04</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Brian Brohm</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="126.05925925925928">126.06</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Vince Young</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="125.52500000000001">125.53</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Brady Quinn</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="119.375">119.38</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Drew Olson</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="99.064285714285717">99.06</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Phil Horvath</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">NA</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18>Brian Johnson</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">NA</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Neither Phil Horvath nor Brian Johnson played in their respective teams' biggest games.
Brady Quinn's numbers were low because he had to play against Ohio State's defense for one of his "big games". Sucks to be him.


There you have it Buckeye fans. Troy Smith is hands down the best big game QB in the country.

You already knew that. But if you're anything like me, it's nice to see it in bold print.
 
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