Deety's Daily Stat Break
In yesterday's installment of Deety's Daily Stat Break, I closed by stating that I believe we can expect more out of Troy Smith this year. I had provided some support for that statement in the post, but I believe more support is necessary for a statement that bold.
I have already shown that QB's with a
high rating like Troy's are more than likely to show a
decrease the following year unless they are backed up by a healthy (or better: improving) running game. Now let's compare Troy to the other QB's who showed significant
improvement as Juniors.
I chose to limit the discussion to QBs that showed a 10 point efficiency increase from their Sophomore to Junior year. This doesn't exactly compare to Troy's 28.5 point increase, but like I said before; only Byron Leftwich compares to Troy in this respect. Not exactly a huge data set.
There were 11 Quarterbacks to choose from. The average change in efficiency rating as Seniors was -1.66. In other words, on the whole, those in this group did a little worse as Seniors than they did as Juniors. These results were skewed by the one QB who did significantly better than everyone else, but I'll get to that later. Here is the list:
- Casey Printers of Texas Christian University
- Junior Improvement - 23.2
- Senior Improvement - -31.3
- LT left TCU after Casey's Junior year. 'nuff said
- Matt Jones of Arkansas
- Junior Improvement - 22.1
- Senior Improvement - -14.3
- Cedric Cobb left Arkansas after Matt's Junior year.
- Arkansas ran the ball almost 6 fewer times per game
- Opponents presumably were able to key more on the pass
- Reggie McNeal of Texas A&M
- Junior Improvement - 12.9
- Senior Improvement - -8.8
- Courtney Lewis was not healthy all year, had fewer rushes in the games he did play
- Reggie himself was a little banged up
- Charlie Frye of Akron
- Junior Improvement - 12.1
- Senior Improvement - -8.8
- Akron focused more on passing in '04, which led to the same focus by opposing defenses
- Byron Leftwich of Marshall
- Junior Improvement - 30.6
- Senior Improvement - -8.1
- Marshall's average running game in '01 was anemic in '02; thus allowing defenses to focus on Byron.
- Matt Schaub of Virginia
- Junior Improvement - 28.7
- Senior Improvement - -6.5
- Virginia didn't have much running game either year
- Defenses were free to focus on passing game
- Casey Bramlet of Wyoming
- Junior Improvement - 19.2
- Senior Improvement - 1
- Bramlet's increase seems to be most attributable to his senior receivers - no running game either year
- Kliff Kingsbury of Texas Tech
- Junior Improvement - 20.0
- Senior Improvement - 6.8
- Do you remember 2001 when there were two runningbacks by the name of Ricky Williams in Texas? One was a longhorn (do I hear a bong bubbling somewhere?), the other was a Red Raider. Do you know what happened to the one that played at Texas Tech? Yeah, me either. It seems he was purely a product of the system, because in the year without him; Texas Tech ran the ball more and for more yards per carry. This explains the concomitant increase in KK's passing efficiency.
- Rasheed Marshall of West Virginia
- Junior Improvement - 20.1
- Senior Improvement - 9.6
- The emergence of Kay-Jay Harris explains the increase in Rasheed's senior year. He gained .8 yards per carry more than the previous year's top rusher for WVU.
- Casey Kelly of New Mexico
- Junior Improvement - 12.9
- Senior Improvement - 12.9
- DonTrell Moore's emergence helped Mr. Kelly immensely. DonTrell carried the ball almost 2.5 more times per game and gained about .7 more yards per carry in his Sophomore campaign, forcing opposing defenses to focus on the Lobos running game.
- Drew Olson of UCLA
- Junior Improvement - 21.1
- Senior Improvement - 29.2
- This is the case that should be of most interest to Buckeye fans...
- Maurice Drew had a big Sophomore season.
- Defenses focused on Maurice, holding him to 1.4 fewer yards per carry.
- Drew Olson therefore emerged as one of the top QBs in a QB rich conference.
So to sum up, having a good running game is key. Having a running game that is improved dramatically the previous year is a big bonus. The QB that had this to the highest degree was Drew Olson; and his situation is very similar to that of Troy Smith. A Junior RunningBack who had a big Sophomore campaign behind him and one of the top O-lines in the conference by the testimony of all the "experts"; Troy might be bound for a great season. Throw in Chris Wells and another year in the weight room on Maurice Wells and Eric Haw, and this could be a season for the history books (and not just OSU's history books).
All Hail the Glory of Troy Smith