Oregon Ducks

[CleveBucks]

Can anybody think of a time where Oregon went for it on fourth down or went for a two-point conversion in a non-traditional situation against a team with a pulse or late in a contested game? I don't follow Oregon every week, but I feel like I've seen enough of them to be pretty confident in saying that Kelly really only trusts the percentages against the body bags that populate most of their schedule. In their occasional matchups against LSU, Auburn, Ohio State, etc. his decisions don't seem to much less risk-averse (in the traditional sense) than most other high-profile football coaches.

I remember being surprised when they went for a 45 yard FG on 4th and 1 against OSU when down by 9. Kicker shanked it and OSU killed the final 5 minutes to ice the game.

 

[zincfinger]

Is he ahead of the curve or is he just being a dick against teams that they know they'll handle regardless?

Can anybody think of a time where Oregon went for it on fourth down or went for a two-point conversion in a non-traditional situation against a team with a pulse or late in a contested game? I don't follow Oregon every week, but I feel like I've seen enough of them to be pretty confident in saying that Kelly really only trusts the percentages against the body bags that populate most of their schedule. In their occasional matchups against LSU, Auburn, Ohio State, etc. his decisions don't seem to much less risk-averse (in the traditional sense) than most other high-profile football coaches.

Also, something that never seems to be addressed by the "go for it every time" crowd... Nobody has actually done it on a persistent basis at the highest level. The rate at which teams convert on fourth down is based almost entirely on what happens in traditional situations under risk-averse coaches. If everybody started attempting fourth down conversions in all situations rather than just desperation and low-risk situations, who's to say that the conversion rate doesn't change? Who's to say the rate doesn't go down as more unnecessary medium and high-risk attempts are made? Who's to say that opposing defenses don't become better equipped tactically and mentally to come up with stops in those situations?

Good point, and the OSU/PSU game is a good example of it. At least there, O'Brien was taking those risks because he had no confidence in his FG kicker, but it still looked like a bad decision.

I like Meyer's approach: go for it fairly often on 4th and short when near or past mid-field. Going for it on 4th in all situations, against solid opponents, would be foolish.

 

[broken24]

Is he ahead of the curve or is he just being a dick against teams that they know they'll handle regardless?

Can anybody think of a time where Oregon went for it on fourth down or went for a two-point conversion in a non-traditional situation against a team with a pulse or late in a contested game? I don't follow Oregon every week, but I feel like I've seen enough of them to be pretty confident in saying that Kelly really only trusts the percentages against the body bags that populate most of their schedule. In their occasional matchups against LSU, Auburn, Ohio State, etc. his decisions don't seem to much less risk-averse (in the traditional sense) than most other high-profile football coaches.

I wonder if the author changed his mind after watching the Mad Hatter do his stuff in the LSU, Bama game.

Also, something that never seems to be addressed by the "go for it every time" crowd... Nobody has actually done it on a persistent basis at the highest level. The rate at which teams convert on fourth down is based almost entirely on what happens in traditional situations under risk-averse coaches. If everybody started attempting fourth down conversions in all situations rather than just desperation and low-risk situations, who's to say that the conversion rate doesn't change? Who's to say the rate doesn't go down as more unnecessary medium and high-risk attempts are made? Who's to say that opposing defenses don't become better equipped tactically and mentally to come up with stops in those situations?

Just to add to this, trick plays, almost by definition, happen when the defense is not expecting the trick play, thereby increasing the probability of them being successful. Desperation 4th down attempt situations tend to happen when defenses are in prevent mode there by increasing the probability of success.

In regards to the defenses adjusting, that reminded me of something one of my first stats. professors told us during class. Basically he was looking at a famously streaky NBA player from the 80's, don't ask me who. But, in looking at his stats the % of makes would go up after a previous made shot by this player until he reached 3 makes in a row. Then his shooting percentage would go down rather quickly with each consecutive make. In fact to a lower shooting percentage than after 2-3 misses, ie being cold. The professor of course attributed this to the defense adjusting to the known streaky player getting hot.

 

[billmac91]

Oregon's offense has really taken another step this year. Not sure if it's attributable to their QB or Chip has made some adjustments, probably a combination of both.

More importantly, I think it's funny everyone seems to have moved on from Willie Lyles. Oregon gets busted paying a handler, trots out a BS recruiting tape from 2007, everyone goes ape for a few weeks, and now it's gone. Haven't heard anything since mid summer.

Still a bit bitter Tressel got taken to the cleaners over tats for awards, while Chip gives $25,000 for recruits and is blowing up nationally in a positive way.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

In regards to the defenses adjusting, that reminded me of something one of my first stats. professors told us during class. Basically he was looking at a famously streaky NBA player from the 80's, don't ask me who. But, in looking at his stats the % of makes would go up after a previous made shot by this player until he reached 3 makes in a row. Then his shooting percentage would go down rather quickly with each consecutive make. In fact to a lower shooting percentage than after 2-3 misses, ie being cold. The professor of course attributed this to the defense adjusting to the known streaky player getting hot.

http://www.radiolab.org/2009/jun/15/seeking-patterns/

If that interested you enough that it stick with you, you would probably enjoy this podcast from RadioLab. :)

 

[BUCKYLE]

JFC, the author must love the taste of Chip's cock. Fucking garbage. Even if he has valid points, I couldn't get past the written fellatio. Talking shit about the opposing D celebrating was the kicker. In closing, the author really wants Chip's dick in his throat. Just come out and say it, poke him on facebook, buy him flowers, catch him walking to his car in a poorly lit parking garage...but quit writing about him.

Fuck Chip the cheater. Fuck Oregon. Fuck Nike.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Not about Oregon directly, but Tennessee just got hit with some additional penalties from when they had Kiffin as their coach. The additional penalties are related to an assistant coach's dealings with Willie Lyles. The penalties are a slap on the wrist, but then the issues only appeared to involve this assistant coach rather than the entire football program like at Oregon. A paragraph of note (emphasis mine):

In the facts agreed upon by the University, the NCAA and Garza, during the summer of 2009, Garza reimbursed Will Lyles, an individual associated with prospect Lache Seastrunk, for airfare and hotel expenses associated with an unofficial visit for Seastrunk and his mother to the University. Because Lyles arranged the trip for Seastrunk, the NCAA classified him as a booster of the University.

http://www.utsports.com/genrel/111612aab.html

 

[JBaney45]

Oregon's offense has really taken another step this year. Not sure if it's attributable to their QB or Chip has made some adjustments, probably a combination of both.

Better quarterback I'd say

There isn't ANYTHING "revolutionary" about the Oregon offense, it's just personel. When Oregon has the better players they can't be stopped. When they face superior defenses (Ohio State 09, Auburn 10, LSU 11) they are much less successful. Same with any other competently coached team in college football basically

 

[buckeyesin07]

When Oregon has the better players they can't be stopped. When they face superior defenses (Ohio State 09, Auburn 10, LSU 11) they are much less successful. Same with any other competently coached team in college football basically

Bingo. Someone wake me up when they win a big game against a quality opponent on the national stage (and please, let's not pretend that Wisconsin '11 fits that description). Until then, I'm going to assume this is the same smoke and mirrors job by Chip Kelly that gets half-wit broadcasters to start slobbering about "speed" and "playing in space" but fails to make any noise outside the Pac-12.

 

[JBaney45]

Better quarterback I'd say

There isn't ANYTHING "revolutionary" about the Oregon offense, it's just personel. When Oregon has the better players they can't be stopped. When they face superior defenses (Ohio State 09, Auburn 10, LSU 11) they are much less successful. Same with any other competently coached team in college football basically

Add Stanford 2012 to this

 

[BigWoof31]

 

[Buckeye86]

Mike Farrell @rivalsmike

FYI if Chip Kelly bolts for NFL, and I keep hearing from coaching sources he is likely to do so, all #Oregon predictions are off

Pete Carroll 2.0?

 

[Muck]

Suddenly Gruden removing his name from the Tennessee job makes perfect sense.

Gruden to Oregon.

 

[TDunk]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaaf--oregon--ncaa-reach-impasse-in-football-investigation-215913743.html

The sources said Oregon is now anticipating an appearance before the NCAA's committee on infractions (COI) this spring - something the school was hoping to avoid following an investigation into the football program's financial relationship with prep adviser Will Lyles.

Pete Carroll 2.0 ???

 

[Taosman]

Hammer time! :tongue2: