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Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

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NateG;1589694; said:
I'm not saying OSU per se... but does anyone think a 2 loss team could jump Boise or TCU?
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Only U$C, they seemingly don't drop in the polls when they lose to unranked teams or get crushed by Oregon. So when they win they get rewarded by leap frogging everyone. The BCS seems obsessed with just keeping them ahead tOSU.
 
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osucollegebuck;1589696; said:
Only USC, they seemingly don't drop in the polls when they lose to unranked teams or get crushed by Oregon. So when they win they get rewarded by leap frogging everyone. The BCS seems obsessed with just keeping them ahead tOSU.
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Since tOSU is ranked 8th and USC 10th in both the Coaches Poll and the Harris Poll, the manual compoments of the BCS rankings, I'd say that comment isn't rational.

But I do think that Oregon should still be ranked ahead of USC.
 
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I don't know if anyone really cares, but here is an article I'm writing for my schools paper about the BCS title race.

It's not great or finsihed yet, but keep in mind it is dumbed down a lot too, because it is for the students of my school, who aren't exactly CFB experts.

Good or bad feedback is appreciated, but here it is:

For fifteen Saturdays in the fall, college football rules the sports world. The teams that compete on Saturday afternoons are all after one common goal, a BCS National Championship.

But not everyone can go undefeated and achieve this goal. As of press time there are six undefeated teams this year. Florida, Alabama, Texas, Texas Christian, Cincinnati and Boise State are the elite few that have a shot at reaching the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, where the National Championship will be played.

All six of these teams are ranked 1 to 6, respectively, in the BCS standings, which determines the two teams that will play for the Championship.

The BCS standings are a compilation of six computer rankings, which are determined by their own complex formulas. These computer rankings are averaged into one ranking that counts for one third of the BCS standings, along with the Harris Interactive Poll and the Coaches Poll, which are two polls voted on by college football coaches and members of the college football media.

A team does not need to be undefeated to go to the title game, but it is highly unlikely that a one-loss team will surpass five of the six undefeated teams.

Texas Christian, Cincinnati and Boise State are unlikely to ascend to the Championship game because the do not play in the prestigious BCS power conferences that Florida, Texas and Alabama compete in. Florida and Alabama play in the Southeastern Conference, or SEC, while Texas plays in the Big 12.

Cincinnati is in the Big East, which is a BCS power conference, but the conference has lost respect over the last few years for not producing many top ten teams.

The key game in the race for the BCS National Championship will be the SEC championship. Florida and Alabama will meet in Atlanta for the conference title on December 5 and the winner will almost be guaranteed a spot in the BCS title game. These two teams met last year in the Georgia Dome, where Florida won a close game and went on to win the National Title.

The Big 12 Championship game will also be played on December 5, when Texas will meet either Kansas State or Nebraska, neither of which are currently ranked in the top 25 of the BCS standings. With a win in this game, which appears likely, Texas would probably take over the number 2 spot in the rankings, replacing the loser of the SEC championship game.

If Texas were to lose though, then the BCS would become even more confusing then it already is. This would leave the winner of the SEC championship game to play Cincinnati, Texas Christian, or Boise State. Cincinnati appears like the favorite to take advantage of this situation if it were to occur.

However, Cincinnati will have to travel to Pennsylvania on December 5, when it plays Pittsburg, a top ten team. Cincinnati is currently fifth in the BCS, although a road win would probably move them ahead of TCU. But if Cincinnati loses, then the new participant in the BCS National Championship would be TCU, who does not appear likely to lose between now and the Title game.

If Texas, Cincinnati and Texas Christian do lose, then Boise State would fall into the open slot. This seems almost impossible, but it happened before in 2007 when Ohio State rose from 7, to 1 in the standings in just a few weeks before losing to Louisiana State in the BCS Championship game.

It appears that Florida or Alabama will play Texas in Pasadena on January 7, 2010, but crazier things have happened in college football. Back in 2007, Appalachian State, a team that does not even compete in Division 1 football, traveled north and beat Michigan, who was ranked as one of the top ten teams in the country.

It is a definite possibility for a few of these teams to lose and a team like Cincinnati or Boise State to play in the National Championship game. But no one will know for sure until the early hours of December 6, when all of the games are completed.
 
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Here's my update for this week. Remember, this is an estimation of which teams would be in the final BCS top-2 under various scenarios.

Estimated Final BCS Pecking Order
01. Undefeated SEC Champ (Bama-Fla)
02. Undefeated Texas (control their own destiny)
03. Undefeated Cincy
04. 1-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
05. Undefeated TCU
06. 1-loss Texas Big 12 Champ (any loss would now be bad)
07. 1-loss non-SEC-Champ Bama-Fla (would have to be in SEC CCG)
08. 1-loss GaTech ACC Champ
09. Undefeated Boise St
10. 1-loss non-Big 12 Champ Texas (this would have to occur in B12 CCG)
11. 1-loss Big East Champ Pitt
12. 2-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
13. 1-loss Big East Champ Cincy (loss to Illinois)
14. 2-loss tOSU
 
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BB73;1595964; said:
Here's my update for this week. Remember, this is an estimation of which teams would be in the final BCS top-2 under various scenarios.

Estimated Final BCS Pecking Order
01. Undefeated SEC Champ (Bama-Fla)
02. Undefeated Texas (control their own destiny)
03. Undefeated Cincy
04. 1-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
05. Undefeated TCU
06. 1-loss Texas Big 12 Champ (any loss would now be bad)
07. 1-loss non-SEC-Champ Bama-Fla (would have to be in SEC CCG)
08. 1-loss GaTech ACC Champ
09. Undefeated Boise St
10. 1-loss non-Big 12 Champ Texas (this would have to occur in B12 CCG)
11. 1-loss Big East Champ Pitt
12. 2-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
13. 1-loss Big East Champ Cincy (loss to Illinois)
14. 2-loss tOSU
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We are back in!!! LOL.... Wasn't this about the same time the original craziness started?
 
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Here's my update for this week. Remember, this is an estimation of which teams would be in the final BCS top-2 under various scenarios.

Nothing changed this week, all the teams still alive for the BCSCG won if they played.

Estimated Final BCS Pecking Order
01. Undefeated SEC Champ (Bama-Fla)
02. Undefeated Texas (control their own destiny)
03. Undefeated Cincy
04. 1-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
05. Undefeated TCU
06. 1-loss Texas Big 12 Champ (a loss to aTm would be bad)
07. 1-loss non-SEC-Champ Bama-Fla (would have to be in SEC CCG)
08. 1-loss GaTech ACC Champ
09. Undefeated Boise St
10. 1-loss non-Big 12 Champ Texas (this would have to occur in B12 CCG)
11. 1-loss Big East Champ Pitt
12. 2-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
13. 1-loss Big East Champ Cincy (loss to Illinois)
14. 2-loss tOSU
 
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You know what is interesting about this year. If Texas takes care of Nebraska next week, which I am pretty sure they will, then Texas will play the winner of Alabama/Florida. We all know that. But what I hadn't thought about, is the fact that this means Ohio State had ZERO chance of winning a national championship this year. If we hold USC on that final drive. If we show up against Purdue. We are sitting at 12-0 right now, and we would be #4 in the BCS standings. There was nothing we could have done. I think even had we won all our games in very impressive fashion, the SEC champion would definitely still get a nod, and then it would come down to us and Texas, and I believe, even if we had put up 50 points a game this year, that people would look at the Fiesta Bowl last season, and Texas getting snubbed last year, and Texas would be voted ahead of us in the polls.

It's just funny to think that we didn't know it going in, but none of the games really mattered as far as the national championship was concerned. The best we could have done is an outright big ten championship, and a trip to the Rose Bowl. And that is what we have. Sure it would be awesome to have another perfect season, but it's just funny to think about how screwed up this system is. Sure Cincy, TCU, and Boise are feeling the same way. But it'd be different if it happened to a program like Ohio State, whether that's fair or not. Kind of scares me for next year. If the Big Ten is down, and Miami FL goes back to being a nobody in the ACC, then our SOS might not be high enough for us to get into the NCG even if we win all our games. It's sick to think about.

But my main point is the fact that we had no chance to win a national championship this year. That makes me laugh a little bit. It also makes me realize how lucky we were in 2002 that Oklahoma or Georgia didn't go undefeated, because Ohio State had nothing to do with that.
 
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JXC;1607834; said:
You know what is interesting about this year. If Texas takes care of Nebraska next week, which I am pretty sure they will, then Texas will play the winner of Alabama/Florida. We all know that. But what I hadn't thought about, is the fact that this means Ohio State had ZERO chance of winning a national championship this year. If we hold USC on that final drive. If we show up against Purdue. We are sitting at 12-0 right now, and we would be #4 in the BCS standings. There was nothing we could have done. I think even had we won all our games in very impressive fashion, the SEC champion would definitely still get a nod, and then it would come down to us and Texas, and I believe, even if we had put up 50 points a game this year, that people would look at the Fiesta Bowl last season, and Texas getting snubbed last year, and Texas would be voted ahead of us in the polls.

It's just funny to think that we didn't know it going in, but none of the games really mattered as far as the national championship was concerned. The best we could have done is an outright big ten championship, and a trip to the Rose Bowl. And that is what we have. Sure it would be awesome to have another perfect season, but it's just funny to think about how screwed up this system is. Sure Cincy, TCU, and Boise are feeling the same way. But it'd be different if it happened to a program like Ohio State, whether that's fair or not. Kind of scares me for next year. If the Big Ten is down, and Miami FL goes back to being a nobody in the ACC, then our SOS might not be high enough for us to get into the NCG even if we win all our games. It's sick to think about.

But my main point is the fact that we had no chance to win a national championship this year. That makes me laugh a little bit. It also makes me realize how lucky we were in 2002 that Oklahoma or Georgia didn't go undefeated, because Ohio State had nothing to do with that.
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It would have mattered next year when the polls came out,and assuming they win the rose bowl in both scenarios.
 
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JXC;1607834; said:
It also makes me realize how lucky we were in 2002 that Oklahoma or Georgia didn't go undefeated, because Ohio State had nothing to do with that.
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You are very welcome. Beating Georgia that year was pay back for y'all beating Jake the Snake in '96 and letting us meet the Noles for the Title.

I'll always love tOSU for that. Always.
 
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Here's my update for this week. Things are very clear-cut if Texas beats Nebraska. But if Nebraska wins, it's a beauty contest among TCU, Cincy (if they beat Pitt), and the SECCG loser.

I moved TCU ahead of Cincy this week. Cincy has had some close games lately, and Pitt's loss to WV limits the bump Cincy could have received by beating a top-10 Pitt team. I think most voters want to avoid the rematch between the SEC teams.

Only the top 5 lines can make the BCS Title game, but I'm leaving the longer list as a record of how far away tOSU was from the Title game.

Estimated Final BCS Pecking Order
01. Undefeated SEC Champ (Bama-Fla)
02. Texas, if they beat Nebraska in the Big 12 CCG
03. Undefeated TCU (season over)
04. Undefeated Cincy
05. loser of SEC CG Bama-Fla
06. Undefeated Boise St
07. 1-loss Texas (loss in B12 CCG)
08. 2-loss tOSU
09. 2-loss Oregon
 
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JXC;1607834; said:
You know what is interesting about this year. If Texas takes care of Nebraska next week, which I am pretty sure they will, then Texas will play the winner of Alabama/Florida. We all know that. But what I hadn't thought about, is the fact that this means Ohio State had ZERO chance of winning a national championship this year. If we hold USC on that final drive. If we show up against Purdue. We are sitting at 12-0 right now, and we would be #4 in the BCS standings. There was nothing we could have done. I think even had we won all our games in very impressive fashion, the SEC champion would definitely still get a nod, and then it would come down to us and Texas, and I believe, even if we had put up 50 points a game this year, that people would look at the Fiesta Bowl last season, and Texas getting snubbed last year, and Texas would be voted ahead of us in the polls.

It's just funny to think that we didn't know it going in, but none of the games really mattered as far as the national championship was concerned. The best we could have done is an outright big ten championship, and a trip to the Rose Bowl. And that is what we have. Sure it would be awesome to have another perfect season, but it's just funny to think about how screwed up this system is. Sure Cincy, TCU, and Boise are feeling the same way. But it'd be different if it happened to a program like Ohio State, whether that's fair or not. Kind of scares me for next year. If the Big Ten is down, and Miami FL goes back to being a nobody in the ACC, then our SOS might not be high enough for us to get into the NCG even if we win all our games. It's sick to think about.

But my main point is the fact that we had no chance to win a national championship this year. That makes me laugh a little bit. It also makes me realize how lucky we were in 2002 that Oklahoma or Georgia didn't go undefeated, because Ohio State had nothing to do with that.
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Quite true overall. I think Cordle mentioned something similar during the Iowa postgame. If we had won out, we would be sitting at #4 right now, most likely. There is an outside chance we would be at #3 after getting some cred for beating SC and Texas' early struggles against inferior opponents. But they would probably have jumped us later after SC's meltdowns. Interesting thought anyway. Who would have figured that BCS haters should have been rooting for Ohio State all along.

As far as next year goes, it's funny you mention Miami beating up on the ACC. Fourtunately, we get Miami at our place early. If we win that we'll likely be in the the top 2 and in the drivers seat for the rest of the year. The stars are aligned for next year if we take care of business, shitty Big Ten or not-shitty Big Ten.

-z

Oops, misread the bolded part of your quote. I thought you said "if Miami goes back to beating the nobodies in the ACC" :) . Either way, I think Miami will be a great team next year and unless we get blown out in the Rose Bowl, I don't think too many teams will be starting out ahead of us in the preseason poll, considering all of the returning starters we'll have.
 
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We don't know what would have happened poll wise and computer wise if we had went undefeated. After losing to USC it was at that point going to be very hard to get back up the chain. If we would have beat USC, they might not have had a let down against Washington... who knows... It would have beefed up our comp ranks and people would have seen us as a top team. USC got pushed above Alabama to 3. The early polls determine alot as far as the end of year goes. The reason OSU was in that scenario in 2002 was because of a low start on the Polls(13). An undefeated team in the Big Ten(3 top 10 teams in coaches and Harris)(and for OSU, USC at 20/19 respectively) could have bolstered a better BCS poll than Undefeated Texas(only B12 team in top 15 of either poll).

So to say that OSU would have had no chance is not completely valid. I am not saying OSU WOULD have made it but it isn't straight fact that OSU would have been left out. There is a reason OSU made it back to 7 in the human polls. With the Purdue loss we could have still been in 4th-5th. It makes us feel better to say we would have been left out seeing 3 valid unbeatens. We would have been valid as well though. I believe that the way the D is playing right now that our Bucks are a valid top 5 team(and they still could be by the end of the regular season in the polls(not BCS)).

I am happy with how things played out after Purdue, but that game killed the computer ranks for us. These are all just more reasons they shouldn't start the polls before the season starts. I put my thoughts in the bucket that it would have been a very hard almost coin flip decision again. Maybe giving it to Texas per the B12 title being an extra game (Even though if Neb loses they will drop out of the top 25).
 
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