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Game Thread Ohio State @ Penn State - 09/29/18, 7:30PM (ABC)

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Ohio State vs. Penn State: Tickets, TV, Live Streaming, Weather

Parking
Police and traffic officers will direct you to public parking near the stadium. The cost to park is $60 for cars and SUVs

Entire article: https://theozone.net/2018/09/ohio-state-penn-state-beaver-stadium-tickets-tv-live-streaming-weather/

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DaddyBigBucks said:
Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA): Pedophile Enabler U. Edition

The fifth game of the year is usually late enough in the season to get something of value from DSA, but this year I have to wonder.

Some of you may recall that DSA compares each team to other teams that your opponents have played. This early in the year, the small sample size and the wide variation in the strength of non-conference schedule makes DSA a crap shoot. This year, there has been more than sample size that skews the numbers.

For example, Ohio State's Defense went up against TCU's Offense indoors, while SMU's Defense faced them in the rain. Having seen the game, it seemed to me that they took very few steps to keep the balls dry or change them out, and there were quite a few issues as a result. All of this means that OSU's defense gave up more than SMU's did to TCU's offense, but I doubt there are many people in America who would take SMU's defense over the Silver Bullets.

Similarly, PSU's passing output is compared to other passing offenses that faced Pitt, including Georgia Tech. This doesn't seem like a very useful comparison.

Then there is the serious Buckeye Hangover that TCU and Rutgers (at least) seem to have. This has a negative effect on OSU's DSA numbers.

On top of all this, App State's game vs. USM was postponed or canceled (who cares which). This left Appie's only FBS opponent apart from PSU to be Charlotte. That's right, the same Charlotte that is even newer to FBS than Appie themselves. For this reason, as loathe as I am to discard data when I have so little to begin with, I discarded the App State game from the analysis of Penn State.

For those keeping track at home, there are a fair few things that would seem to skew DSA in PSU's favor, and we haven't even discussed the fact that Ohio State has coasted in the 2nd half in three of their games, whereas PSU seems to sleep walk through the first half and has had to keep the starters in much longer than OSU.

So with knowing a priori that we should expect this analysis to unfairly favor PSU, let's look at the numbers:

Differential Passing Offense

Ohio State: 1.85 (OSU gains 85% more through the air than their opponents give up, on average, to others)
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.86 (Arm-Punt McSorely throws for only 86% of the yardage that opponents typically give up)
Advantage: Ohio State - huge


Differential Pass Efficiency

Ohio State: 1.73
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.16
Advantage: Ohio State - significant


Differential Rushing Offense

Ohio State: 1.10
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.30
Advantage: Peds - moderate


Offensive First Downs

Ohio State: 1.51
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.08
Advantage: Ohio State - significant


Total Offense

Ohio State: 1.46
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.06
Advantage: Ohio State - substantial​


Scoring Offense

Ohio State: 1.80
Pedophile Enabler U: 2.02
Advantage: Peds - moderate (When you consider that OSU has coasted in 3 of 4 second halves, I wouldn't read much into this)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Differential Passing Defense

Ohio State: 0.84 (OSU only allows 84% as many passing yards as opponents gain, on average, against other FBS opponents)
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.65 (PSU defense giving up only 65% of their opponents' usual passing output)
Advantage: Peds - significant


Differential Pass Efficiency Defense

Ohio State: 1.02 (ugh)
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.80
Advantage: Peds - significant


Differential Rushing Defense

Ohio State: 0.93
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.89
Advantage: Peds - small


First Down Defense

Ohio State: 0.82
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.77
Advantage: Peds - small


Total Defense

Ohio State: 0.88
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.77
Advantage: Peds - moderate​


Scoring Defense

Ohio State: 0.73
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.53
Advantage: Peds - moderate

​
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For those of you who have read this far, you either remember or you've figured out already that DSA can provide a prediction for each of these statistics by using the DSA percentages and multiplying by each teams base stats. The ones that matter are the score, so here they are.

DSA Prediction: Peds 34 to 43 points
Bucks 24 to 29 points

Like I said, this analysis favored PSU for numerous reasons.

The only thing we can draw from this with any certainty is that which we already knew: If Ohio State does not solve the back 7 issues, or at least improve substantially, then Saturday will be a long night.

The offense is unbelievable, but the defense needs to live up to its potential for anything good to happen this year. They did it in 2014 (recall the crap fest against Cinci in Late September that year?); so we know it's possible.
Click to expand...

On top of all of the things already mentioned that favor PSU wrt DSA, there is the strength of opponents' schedules.

DSA compares you to other teams your opponents played. Ohio State's opponents' opponents averaged 2 more points per game on offense and gave up 3 points fewer per game on defense than those of PSU. This skews DSA by 5 points per game in favor of PSU on top of all of the other factors already favoring them.

Further, I broke down scoring by quarter and tried to come up with DSA per quarter, but the results are worthless imo. There are just so many things that skew the numbers this early in the season that you end up with numbers that mislead you in one direction for one quarter and in the other direction for the next.

This was a surprise to me, as Ohio State coasted in the second half of 2 of their games this year. I expected to find something in the numbers that would reflect that, but alas, the numbers are easily skewed by an aberrant quarter here and there.

There is one thing that we know for certain though; Ohio State had the potential to score a lot more points in 2 of their games this year. The Pedsters, although they also had blow outs, didn't really leave many points on the field.

All of this points to a confirmation of something we already knew: We'll know a lot more about the 2018 Buckeyes on Sunday than we know right now.
 
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PRESSER BULLETS: JAMES FRANKLIN PREVIEWS MATCHUP WITH OHIO STATE, DISCUSSING DWAYNE HASKINS' ARM STRENGTH, NICK BOSA'S INJURY AND THE EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE

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  • "I want the Ohio State fans and family members of the players to have a great experience. I want the Penn State fans to welcome them and treat them extremely well," Franklin said. "But on the field, I want it to be the most difficult environment in the history of college football."
Entire article: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...ussing-dwayne-haskins-arm-strength-nick-bosas

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Two-Minute Drill: James Franklin Previews OSU | B1G Teleconference

O-Zone's article: https://theozone.net/2018/09/two-minute-drill-james-franklin/
 
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Buckeye Linebackers Will Be Key Against Penn State

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The Ohio State linebackers have had their ups and downs this season, and with Penn State’s offense on the horizon, now would not be the time for one of those unhappy valleys.

Penn State leads the conference in rushing, averaging 275 yards on the ground per game. They also lead with a 6.4-yard-per-carry average and 20 rushing touchdowns. Those touchdowns are nine more than anybody else — and 10 more than the Buckeyes.

Junior running back Miles Sanders is rushing for 123.8 yards per game and averaging 7 yards per carry. Last week against Illinois, he carried the ball 22 times for 200 yards and three touchdowns. In two games against Power 5 opponents, Sanders is rushing for 159 yards per game.

Making matters even more difficult for the Ohio State defense is senior quarterback Tracy McSorley, who is rushing for 58.8 yards per game, and backup tailback Ricky Slade, who is helping out with 36.8 yards per game.

McSorley is adept with reads, whether to run it, hand it, or throw it, and that is going to put the Buckeye linebackers in constant stress. And as we have seen this season, the Buckeye linebackers have not responded well to stress.

So far this season, only Rutgers had allowed more runs of 30 yards in the Big Ten than the Buckeyes. Ohio State has allowed five, which is already two more than they allowed the entire 2015 season. It is also the same number that the Nittany Lions have run for this season.

And no team in the conference has more 60-yard rushes than Penn State’s two this season.

Yes, stopping the running game starts up front, but that’s only the beginning.

The Ohio State linebackers need to fill their gaps and read their keys correctly. Be it inexperience or lack of execution or simply asking them to do too much, the Buckeye linebackers have had some struggles this season, and the scrutiny has certainly followed.

Despite that scrutiny, OSU head coach Urban Meyer has been relatively happy. Or at least that’s how he has portrayed his mood to the media.

“The first two games they played very well,” he said last Tuesday following the win over TCU. “You have Pete Werner playing Sam, I think he played very well. The one thing that got us out of sorts to a degree was their tempo. We practiced hard against it, but when you get into real time and real space, we had a couple of misalignment issues.

“But overall, their development, I think we have two of the three were new this year, and when Baron Browning is in there, that’s a new middle linebacker as well. Malik Harrison has been playing great. The other guys are getting better. Greg Schiano is very pleased with the progress and you have continue to get better with experience.”

In fact, speaking with the media one week ago, Schiano said he thought the linebackers were playing pretty well overall and he sees improvement from camp.

“I think the linebackers have played pretty well actually,” he said. “We’re not perfect by any means — but I think we’re really playing much more assignment-sound football. Even from training camp we’re getting better and better.”

Entire article: https://theozone.net/2018/09/buckeye-linebackers-penn-state/
 
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Against Ohio State, Penn State’s offense will live and die by Trace McSorley

If the Buckeye defense shuts down the Nittany Lions’ QB, it’ll be an easy (and big) win in Happy Valley.

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Since 2012, only a select few in the Big Ten have been able to get close to toppling the Ohio State (and Urban Meyer) juggernaut. Over the past five seasons, Penn State has been able to consistently make their contests with the Buckeyes interesting. Two seasons ago, the Nittany Lions roared back— thanks to a blocked field goal being returned back for the eventual game-winning score— to defeat the Bucks; last season, Ohio State was the one to roar back thanks to a legendary performance by J.T. Barrett.

The last two meetings between the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes have been instant classics. The last two meetings, at least for PSU, have been as close as they have been because of one thing: Trace McSorley.

Now a senior, McSorley has burrowed himself deep into the Penn State history books. He broke Christian Hackenberg’s records of 21 games with 200-plus yards passing— he currently has 24— and nine games of 300-plus yards of passing. He currently holds the school’s record for completion percentage (60.9 percent), and has a 0.7 percent advantage over Daryll Clark, who QBed be the Nittany Lions between 2006-09. McSorley also bested Clark’s career rushing touchdown mark of 22.

On the horizon, McSorley can also become the Penn State leader in QB rushing yards (he needs 503 more), career wins (needs three more) and passing completions (needs 108 more). Quality college quarterbacks have come through the Nittany Lion program, and McSorley is about to best all of their records before he leaves.

The most successful period in the James Franklin era has been centered around McSorley as the signal-caller. Last season’s 11-win campaign, which concluded with a win over Washington in the Fiesta Bowl, followed a season that included a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl appearance. Truthfully, PSU has been a tough cookie to crack over the last two seasons.

Shutting down McSorley needs to be priority No. 1 for the Buckeyes defense. Do that, and the cookie crumbles; don’t do that, and it’ll be a sweet evening in Whiteout conditions for Penn State. The lifeline of the Penn State offense has been built around the play of Trace. Just look back at last year’s game against Ohio State. When things went well for the Nittany Lions, it was because of QB play. When things went poorly, it was because the Buckeye defense pressured and rushed McSorley into making throws.

Even with Saquon Barkley going into the NFL Draft, the Nittany Lions still have a legitimate rusher in Miles Sanders. On Monday, Sanders split Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors with OSU’s Dwayne Haskins. A 22-carry, 200-yard outing against Illinois propelled him to that honor, and now opens a new pandora’s box for Ohio State: preventing the run-pass option.

Entire article: https://www.landgrantholyland.com/2...te-penn-state-football-preview-trace-mcsorley
 
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