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Game Thread Ohio State @ Penn State - 09/29/18, 7:30PM (ABC)

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HorseshoeFetish said:
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This is some of the best analysis that I've seen. I thought that in the previous one that was posted, but in this one, they talk more about their method.

Their "model" uses what I call DSA as the foundation; then it builds on that foundation. For example, it analyzes how well you sustain your differential numbers vs better competition. I have considered doing that, to be honest, but I never have because I really have no intention of monetizing it and it's more work than even I want to do without compensation of some kind.

But... once you've written the code, it's not that much work.

What was most interesting to me is not that these guys understand numbers. Numbers aren't hard. It's that these guys understand what numbers tell you and, more importantly, what they don't tell you.

That's why you heard them say that they don't include FCS games. I don't either.
That's why you heard them say they don't start their analysis until you're about this far into the season. Last week for them, this week for me.
That's why you heard them say that the Appie State game is not a good indicator for PSU. I thought so too, and I said so.
That's why they did a separate calculation WITHOUT the Appie State game. I threw out the Appie State game before doing the calculation to begin with.
And that's why both guys went AGAINST their own model in the score prediction. I didn't offer a prediction, but I did opine that there are a great many ways in which PSU comes off looking better than they really are from the perspective of this kind of analysis.

Really solid work by guys that really get it.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
This is some of the best analysis that I've seen. I thought that in the previous one that was posted, but in this one, they talk more about their method.

Their "model" uses what I call DSA as the foundation; then it builds on that foundation. For example, it analyzes how well you sustain your differential numbers vs better competition. I have considered doing that, to be honest, but I never have because I really have no intention of monetizing it and it's more work than even I want to do without compensation of some kind.

But... once you've written the code, it's not that much work.

What was most interesting to me is not that these guys understand numbers. Numbers aren't hard. It's that these guys understand what numbers tell you and, more importantly, what they don't tell you.

That's why you heard them say that they don't include FCS games. I don't either.
That's why you heard them say they don't start their analysis until you're about this far into the season. Last week for them, this week for me.
That's why you heard them say that the Appie State game is not a good indicator for PSU. I thought so too, and I said so.
That's why they did a separate calculation WITHOUT the Appie State game. I threw out the Appie State game before doing the calculation to begin with.
And that's why both guys went AGAINST their own model in the score prediction. I didn't offer a prediction, but I did opine that there are a great many ways in which PSU comes off looking better than they really are from the perspective of this kind of analysis.

Really solid work by guys that really get it.
Click to expand...

I only have one (very minor) quibble with their analysis.

I think they missed the fact that Haskins' numbers were enormously better in the second half of the TCU game. That's meaningful. I will wait until at least after the PSU game to form an opinion on what it means, but it is definitely worth noting at this point.

It could be that the OSU coaches made great adjustments. It could be that TCU coaches adjusted to stop one thing and got burned by another. It could be that when TCU went up by more than a TD, Haskins got pissed off and went hulk-smash on them.

Here's hoping we see nothing of the kind on Saturday because the Buckeyes lead start-to-finish and do not find themselves in need of adjustments.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
This is some of the best analysis that I've seen. I thought that in the previous one that was posted, but in this one, they talk more about their method.

Their "model" uses what I call DSA as the foundation; then it builds on that foundation. For example, it analyzes how well you sustain your differential numbers vs better competition. I have considered doing that, to be honest, but I never have because I really have no intention of monetizing it and it's more work than even I want to do without compensation of some kind.

But... once you've written the code, it's not that much work.

What was most interesting to me is not that these guys understand numbers. Numbers aren't hard. It's that these guys understand what numbers tell you and, more importantly, what they don't tell you.

That's why you heard them say that they don't include FCS games. I don't either.
That's why you heard them say they don't start their analysis until you're about this far into the season. Last week for them, this week for me.
That's why you heard them say that the Appie State game is not a good indicator for PSU. I thought so too, and I said so.
That's why they did a separate calculation WITHOUT the Appie State game. I threw out the Appie State game before doing the calculation to begin with.
And that's why both guys went AGAINST their own model in the score prediction. I didn't offer a prediction, but I did opine that there are a great many ways in which PSU comes off looking better than they really are from the perspective of this kind of analysis.

Really solid work by guys that really get it.
Click to expand...
I think what the guys are missing is fairly a big point. Both teams have struggled holding teams below their average against the pass (101% for osu and 104% for PED) but of the two which struggles to throw?

Sure OSU has had a few bumps but PEDs strength is running the ball not throwing. Conversely OSU is very good throwing the ball. So in other words their weakness matches up with our weakness but our strength aligns with their weakness.

Botton line is without big chunk plays this defense is pretty damn good. Now just have to eliminate the big plays for once this season.
 
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scarletngray said:
I've heard it said that Haskins hasn't been tested in a big game environment. Couldn't disagree more. There is no environment as hostile than being behind scUM playing at Ann Arbor. AND he passed that test with flying colors.
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Yeah that bugged me with their analyst breakdown also. Saying scUM has an average defense is sort of ridiculous considering they were top 3 in the country.
 
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For whatever reason I can’t stand playing in Happy Valley but I hope Franklin eats his words about McSorely being a winner and he takes a fat L Saturday. I’ll give the kid credit he can make some plays and that just irritates the hell out of me how a team can be so lucky. If they can shut down the run all night and the secondary can play tight on their receivers then I feel good about a solid win. Only concerns are screens, QB scrambles (when their plays break down) and turnovers. Need to keep them pinned deep to force them to throw considering Mcfucks accuracy and hopefully force a couple or a few picks and give us a short field and I think it’s a solid 2 TD win. It’d be great to see a curb stomping considering I won’t be able to drink that night due to work.
 
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