MililaniBuckeye;1591611; said:
If they still had Stanzi then I'd agree, but with an inexperienced frosh QB unable to keep their offense on the field for long I doubt their defense will be very fresh from the 2nd quarter on...
This is why I think, in a perfect scenario, it goes a bit like the Penn St game: Close until the 3rd Q, then OSU pulls away once the Hawkeye D is worn out. It's a recipe for classic Tresselball. Protect the football, punt and play defense, and OSU will win this one. Get sloppy, turn it over two or three times, and give up a big play, then it gets interesting.
And
that's the one thing about this game that concerns me. Iowa plays a lot of that 5-under/2-deep zone, and OSU has always had the most success against that scheme with the quick passing game to the vacant spots in the zone (Smith to Gonzo on the slant accounted for 3 TDs versus them between '05-'06, and there was the sick TD pass Smith threw to Robo behind the CB's back in '06 too). Teams that score on Iowa need to pass the ball in the red zone, as they're typically pretty sound against the run. Well, Pryor's had some issues, particularly with throwing over the middle (high and/or late) that could be disasterous. Iowa will have three defenders around the ball waiting to rebound any tips if Pryor is telegraphing his throws or reverts to throwing off his back foot.
Turnover margin could be a big factor in this game. The Bucks should get a couple back from Vandenberg, so it'll likely be a wash. It's just that, right now, I think Iowa's scheme takes advantage of some of the flaws in TP's game, so TP will have to play his best game yet as a Buckeye.