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Game Thread Ohio State 27, Iowa 24 (final, OT, 11/14/09) - Rose Bowl bound!!!

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Also, those point totals aren't THAT big.
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5 turnovers, many of them unforced, will do that. UM still scored 28 despite that. They turned it over 3 of their 4 first drives.

Iowa has a good, disciplined defense, but they aren't great. They will have their hands full with OSU, it should be a great battle. The other matchup is why this is a two TD point sprad.
 
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JXC;1591500; said:
Like I said...they show up in big games. Ark State? N Iowa? Hardly big games? Indiana? Wow. Michigan is the only one, but then again...Michigan sucks. Also, those point totals aren't THAT big. But it seems like the bigger the game, the better their defense plays.
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My mistake. When I see "Iowa State", I don't think big game.
 
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muffler dragon said:
My mistake. When I see "Iowa State", I don't think big game.
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It always is for Iowa. That rivalry is pretty heated, and Iowa has had their struggles with them.


Iowa has turned the ball over a lot this year...and I can think of many times where defenses have scored against them. Last week against Northwestern, and a INT return for a TD against Michigan and one against Arizona, too that I just remember off hand.

Their defense isn't as good as ours, but I could see them having success against our offense. I think it's the same thing as last week. Our WRs are going to get behind their secondary. Will Pryor throw balls like he did to Posey? Or will Pryor throw balls like he did to Sanzenbacher? Time will tell. We need Pryor to be able to hit the deep guy to score enough points to win comfortably, even if we only go deep 2 or 3 times all game. We know they are going to load up the box.

On the flip side...isn't it nice that the Buckeyes D-line can get in the backfield on their own? Man oh man does it make the rest of your defense look good. Make no mistake about it, the biggest reason that Ohio State's defense is awesome this year is that front four. It's fantastic! Best I've seen at Ohio State since 2002. I think they are going to tear Iowa apart. I say at least six 3-and-outs.
 
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NateG;1591245; said:
Well having a subpar ACC,Pac 10 and Big East(saying Cincy loses) would help. It will be hard for them to get in though. Florida Alabama and Texas are shoe in's even with one loss, cincy or Pitt is a shoe in, the ACC winner is in, Then TCU or Boise. That's 6... add the rose matchup and that's 8 of 10 teams. then they would pick between the other non bcs school and 2-3 2 loss teams. USC could win out not reach the rose and get in easily. so that would leave one team.
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Pac-10's good this year. Could get 2 in.
 
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JXC;1591475; said:
Iowa's defense held Wisconsin (10), Arizona (17), Iowa State (3), and Michigan State (13) to their lowest point totals all year. Also held Penn State to 10 points, which was their lowest until the Buckeyes kicked their butt.
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Well the way you have to measure this is compared to the team's average.

Wisconsin-29.56(42nd)- vs Iowa - 10 = -19.56
Arizona-32.25(22nd)- vs Iowa - 17 = - 15.25
Iowa State-21.20(99th)- vs Iowa - 3 = - 18.25
Mich State-30.10(37th)- vs Iowa - 13 = - 16.90
Penn State-28.30(52nd)- vs Iowa - 10 = - 18.30

average of those 5 games is -17.65

so hypothetically you could remove that from OSU's average points and find their possible point total : 30.30-17.65= 12.65....13 points

Then if you do the same with OSU's opponents of higher ranks... USC, Wisconsin, Penn St, Navy, Minnesota. Average point differential... 13.44. Subtracted from Iowa's average points... 24.10.
24.10-13.44=10.66... 11 points.

So the game on paper looks like 13-11.

Add that Iowa has not faced a QB like Pryor and OSU has dominated teams against the run(considering alot will not be put on Vanderburg). It changes the statistical breakdown. If you look at the run/pass breakdown, Iowa would be considered more of a passing team(94th in rushing). Take out the leader of that attack, and you are significantly dropping that stat(230 per gm-47th/ efficiency-79th). OSU and Iowa have great pass defenses especially in causing efficiency problems. If Iowa's defense missteps at all it could get ugly. Turnovers give edge to OSU. Iowa 2.1 turnovers per game with Stanzi. OSU 1.6 per game.

I predict that it won't be as big of a blowout as most project, but it will be a comfortable win. OSU will force some turnovers, probably more than Iowa's average(3 +) and it could open up the offense. If the defense can put a mobile QB like Clark into bad positions to throw and almost forced 4 turnovers(3 by homan, 1 by Chimdi). Plus the factor of a first start Frosh coming to the shoe that turns into a night game feel in the second half.

So all that to say...

OSU 28 - Iowa 6.
Roses in mouths,
Carmen Ohio surrounded by fans,
Trip to the Whorehouse for the outright title.
 
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Add that Iowa has not faced a QB like Pryor
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Persa (NWs Backup QB) ran for 67 yards on Iowa last week

Tater Tot/Robinson combined for 75

those are probably the most run style QBs Iowa has faced this year and they were able to pick up some solid yardage

I think Pryor will get his fair share of yardage, and the running game as a whole will look similar to that @ Penn State last week

Defense gives freshman QB a hell of a time and stands up Iowas running game

my prediction:

Ohio State 30 Iowa 3 (with the defense getting a TD)
 
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muffler dragon;1591552; said:
Not so. If Arizona wins out; then it still keeps things open.
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only if Stanford or Oregon St. wins out... Arizona would give Oregon and USC 3 losses. Stanford would need to win out against ND(should), Cal(should)and USC(tough game). If Arizona beats Oregon and USC wins over Stanford then the likelihood is that 1 team makes it. If Oregon wins, then it is more likely that 2 get in.

Remaining Pac 10 sched...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/conferences/schedule?confId=9
 
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'BusNative said:
how many times has Iowa's D faced a team that keeps its offense OFF the field? With the backup in there... their D could get exposed withe extended minutes.
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Well...yeah if we win the TOP battle, that would be a major plus. That's something the Buckeyes have struggled with at times. I know people are riding high after last week...and yes, I think more stock can be put in your last few games than ones early one...but not ALL your stock. We can't afford 3 and outs.

I think we just need to play loose and have fun. Iowa will. They have nothing to lose. This Freshman QB has no pressure on him...nobody is expecting anything. The Buckeyes have a lot of pressure on them. They know, as does everyone, that if they lose this one there is going to be a lot of angry people.
 
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