South Bend Tribune
November 06. 2006 6:59AM
Sit this one out, Charlie
Candor not needed for ND's bowl hopes
ERIC HANSEN
Tribune Staff Writer
SOUTH BEND -- Someday Charlie Weis will learn to speak gibberish or simply smile wide and say "no comment."
Until then, the Notre Dame head football coach's candor will tend to get the best of him at times.
Like the seemingly innocuous little tangent he stumbled onto recently about Notre Dame students showing up outside his office at 4:30 a.m., trolling for autographs.
"Sickos, I'll tell you," Weis said of the phenomenon that occurs on average about once a week.
"It gets worse around Christmas time," Weis said with a chuckle. "It's a cheap Christmas present. Every once in a while, if they walk over and the weather's really bad, I'll feel sorry for them and I'll pop them on the golf cart and drive them back over to the dorm."
And then he answered one question too many: Is there a better time to catch you for that?
"No, that's the safe bet," he said, and then paused and shook his head. "And I just should not have said that."
To give Weis some time to practice perfecting the art of stonewalling, we'll ask the questions and give the answers this time:
What do Notre Dame's bowl options look like?
Realistically, unless the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter is aligned with Mars and something really weird happens in college football -- like Lee Corso starts predicting a whole bunch of games correctly, the Irish (8-1, No. 9 BCS) are in the mix for four bowl berths -- Sugar, Rose, Cotton, Gator.
Which teams are Notre Dame competing with for an at-large BCS berth?
First, let's explain what the new-look BCS looks like. There are five BCS games this season and 10 available slots. The champions of six conferences earn automatic berths. The remaining four sports are open unless Notre Dame or a conference champ from a mid-major league meets certain criteria.
Right now the automatic spots are shaping up as follows:
ACC: Wake Forest, Boston College or Maryland vs. Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.
Big East: Louisville, Rutgers or West Virginia.
Big 10: Winner of Ohio State-Michigan, Nov. 18 in Columbus, Ohio.
Big XII: The winner of Texas vs. Nebraska in the Big XII title game.
Pac-10: The winner of USC-Cal, Nov. 18 in Los Angeles.
SEC: Florida vs. Arkansas or Auburn in the SEC title game.
That leaves seven teams realistically competing for four at-large spots: The Big Ten runner-up, Boise State of the WAC, the Big East runner-up, the Big XII runner-up, the Pac-10 runner-up, the SEC runner-up and Notre Dame.
And that's leaving out some pretty good teams like possibly an 11-1 Wisconsin, a 10-2 Tennessee, a 10-2 LSU, for example. The ACC is the one conference that won't get a second team in. They're just not ranked high enough.
Looking at the seven candidates, the Ohio State-Michigan loser is a lock. A second SEC team would seem to be so too, especially if Auburn finishes 11-1. If Boise State runs the table, the Broncos would likely meet the criteria to be an automatic qualifier (top 12 BCS finish). That leaves four teams competing for the final spot: Most likely the USC-Cal loser, an 11-1 Big East team, a 10-2 Oklahoma squad and Notre Dame.
If the Irish win out, they're in. A top eight finish in the BCS standings qualifies them automatically.
What if the Irish finish 10-2, losing to USC in the regular-season finale?
Fairly or unfairly, Notre Dame at 10-2 would likely get picked over a 10-2 Cal team, but not necessarily over a 10-2 USC squad that had just beaten them. It's safe to say the BCS folks would prefer the Irish over the Big East runner-up -- whoever that is -- and anyone from the Big XII unless Texas loses in the Big XII title game. That throws a little more gray area into the equation.
The Irish have national TV demographics and gaga fans that will buy game tickets and spend money in the bowl city. That all works in their favor. ND-Ohio State, for example, drew the highest TV ratings (12.9) among the non-title BCS bowls last season.
What the Irish lack this year that they had last season is a compelling story line. Through no fault of Brady Quinn, people are tired of looking at him. Along the same lines, they know all about Jeff Samardzija's baseball/football dilemma, Tom Zbikowski's lucrative boxing hobby.
If there is an intriguing angle, it's almost that of casting Weis and the Irish as the antagonists. Weis, quite frankly, isn't any different than he was last year when he was such an endeared national figure. In fact, if anything, he's more media-friendly. But from a distance, he must look different -- more like a bully trying to take someone's lunch money.
Isn't there a way for the Irish to sneak into the championship game?
There is, but not without a scenario with so many "ifs" it would cause migraines. Here's the easiest way to put it -- no school ranked lower than fifth with four weeks to go has ever made it to the BCS title game. The Irish are ninth with four weeks to go.
If you had to predict ND's bowl and opponent, what and who would it be?
Sugar Bowl and Florida. Yes, Weis vs. Urban Meyer. Quinn vs. Chris Leak. A school that stands for hope playing in a city (New Orleans) that stills needs plenty of it.
What Irish players have the best chance to earn first-team All-America honors?
Now that Ohio State's Troy Smith has had his mulligan game, the Heisman and first-team All-America are likely to come down to Smith's and Quinn's performances in Ohio State-Michigan and Notre Dame-USC, respectively.
Each of them has a statistically frailty. Smith is sixth in the nation in passing efficiency, while Quinn is 19th (but climbing). Quinn is eighth in total offense, while Smith is 38th (but comes out of blowouts early).
Wide receiver Samardzija needs more games like he had Saturday (6 receptions, 177 yards and a picturesque touchdown), especially against USC. The biggest perceptual hurdle he has to overcome is that Samardzija's numbers (49 catches, 686 yards 8 TDs) are hard to separate from his own teammate's. Rhema McKnight has 52 catches, 673 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Left offensive tackle Ryan Harris draws raves from Weis on a weekly basis and draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. pegs him as a top 15 pick, but ND's standing as the 96th-best team in sacks allowed will hurt him. Similarly safety Zbikowski's chances are gouged by ND's penchant to give up big plays and the fact Zbikowski was playing through injury during a stretch.
Punter Geoff Price is seventh in the nation in punting, so he has an outside chance.
ND's best bets, however, may be two players that might not immediately come to mind -- tight end John Carlson and defensive end Victor Abiamiri.
Carlson leads all Div. I-A tight ends in receiving yards per game and trails only Chris Hopkins of Toledo in receptions per game. And there may be no better vertical threat among tight ends in the nation.
Abiamiri, meanwhile, has climbed to No. 4 in the nation in sacks -- ahead of most of those guys who were terrorizing Quinn earlier in the season (Michigan's LaMarr Woodley, UCLA's Bruce Davis, Purdue's Anthony Spencer). And he might be even more disruptive against the run.
When is Notre Dame going to get another "big name" verbal commitment?
They just got one -- Matt Scioscia. But he plays baseball. The son of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia hit .325 last season for Encino (Calif.) Crespi, with six doubles and 18 RBIs. And yes, he is a catcher.
Leinart was fine like any other QB when he has plenty of time and tons of weapons to use. Hes playin' tough teams every week now at the Pro level though. Cardinals are 1-6 and Warner was doing a better job, well, not much better anyway. He was completing more passes at least.
