Why I'm not worried about Mario Manningham
For anyone who cares. Yesterday I was arguing that Manningham, or really ANY Michigan WR will not likely be the difference in THE GAME. Here's are the statistics that support my notion that a wideout's performance rarely makes THE difference. Instead, it is the running game or perhaps QB play. I admit there is a subjective componant to my review of these games. Why pick a QB instead of a WR? Here's an example... Henson threw for 303 yards in 2000 and the leading WR had 99. That means, to me, Henson was spreading it around. You don't have to agree, but at least you know where I'm coming from.
2004 OSU 37 -21
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</st1:State> Rushing – 71 (Hart 63)
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</st1:State> Passing – 328 (Edwards 11 – 172 TD)
OSU Rush – 205 (Smith 150)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">OSU</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:place – 241 (Ginn 5 – 87)
<O:p</O:p
Difference – Troy Smith QB
<O:p
2003 <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> 35-21
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich </st1:State>Rush – 170 (Perry 154)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Mich</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 278 (Edwards 7 – 130 2TD)
OSU Rush – 54 (Ross 22)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">OSU</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 329 (Jenkins 9 – 132 0, Holmes 8 – 121 2)
<O:p
Difference – Chris Perry RB
<O:p
<O:p
2002 – OSU 14-9
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> Rush – 121 (Perry 92)<O:p</O:p
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Mich</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 247 (10 – 107 0, Bellamy 8 – 101 0)<O:p</O:p
OSU Rush - 140 (Clarett 122)<O:p</O:p
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">OSU</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 124 (Jenkins 4-51)<O:p
Difference – Truth is, Defense, but limited to O, Clarett. RB
<O:p
2001 OSU 26-20
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> Rush – 117 (Perry 53, Askew 51)
<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Mich</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType> – 206 <st1:City w:st="on">Walker </ST1:p</st1:City>15 - 160 2TD)
OSU Rush – 137 (Wells 135 3TD)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">OSU</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 118 (Sanders 3 – 38 0TD)
<O:p
Difference: Jonathan Wells RB
<O:p</O:p
2000 <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> 38-26
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> Rush – 86 (Thomas 60)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Mich</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 303 (Terrell 5- 99 2TD)
OSU Rush - 149 (Combs 55, Bellasari 47)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">OSU</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p – 251 (Provitt 6 – 81, Rambo 6 – 64)
<O:p
Difference: Drew Henson QB
<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
1999 <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> 24-17
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pMich</ST1:p</st1:State> Rush 102 (Thomas 111)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Mich</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p 150 (Thomas 5 -51 0TD)
OSU Rush 263 (Wiley 92, Wells 85)
<ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">OSU</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Pass</st1:PlaceType></ST1:p 105 (Rambo 2 – 37, Provitt 2- 30)
Difference: 3 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half turnovers, limited to O, Thomas RB
I note that 4 out of 6 times, the team with the leading WR for the game lost. And one of those wins, 1999 for Michigan, appears to be an anomoly to me. It's the only game where one team vastly outgained the other and still lost. This is due to, as I said right above, costly TO's more than Offense.
The team with the better running game also won 4 out of 6 contests. The 1999 anomoly and Drew Henson's 2000 performance are the only times when the winning team was outgained on the ground and still won. In neither of those games, as you can see, was a WR the clear cut difference maker.
Manningham's other problem, other than position, is that he's a Freshman. It is even more rare for a Freshman to be the difference maker in THE GAME than for a WR to be that guy. Clarett comes to mind, but that's about it... That doesn't mean there aren't great plays made by Freshman in the game. Ted Ginn Jr. comes to mind as a Freshman who stood up and played like he's been there before. His presence, however, was felt more in the return game. While it's true he was the leading WR for OSU in 04, and he made several critical catches, I stand by Smith, not Ginn, being the difference in 04. What's more, and in line with my contention, Edwards was the better statistical wideout to Ginn in 04 and you know what that got Michigan? JACK FUCKING SQUAT!
Anything can happen.... Safe money says Mario Manningham isn't the difference.