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NateG
Can't waste the day when the night brings a hearse
Just so all know... Tonight's NC St vs FSU game is important to OSU in 2 ways....
1. Gives Cryami a chance to jump FSU in the ranks to bolster OSU's SOS and drops Choklahoma's
and in turn
2. Helps OSU have a chance to jump Choklahoma with a large victory on Saturday. Even without a Choklahoma loss.
Go NC St.
1. Gives Cryami a chance to jump FSU in the ranks to bolster OSU's SOS and drops Choklahoma's
and in turn
2. Helps OSU have a chance to jump Choklahoma with a large victory on Saturday. Even without a Choklahoma loss.
Go NC St.
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t_BuckeyeScott
Hall of Fame
First of all the Buckeyes need to take care of business. But...
I know this may be crazy, but I'm starting to believe that Wisconsin winning out will actually help us more than hurt us. (Unless Michigan State loses twice). Of course at this point I can't see Wisconsin losing again anyway: @Purdue, Indiana, @Michigan, Northwestern.
Of course it also matters who we play that they don't and vice versa or our exclusive Big 10 opponents.
OSU's Exclusive Big 10 oppenents
Illinois
PSU
Wisky's
MSU
Northwestern
So of course this weekends Iowa-MSU game ends up being fairly neutral for UW's computer rankings while it's a boon to ours if Iowa wins. Of course Wisky (likely)needs this upset anyway to sniff a Big 10 title anyway. It happens to be a reverse situation in the PSU/scUM cripple fight. Our sos doesn't move much while a scUM win would help Wisky. PSU does play Northwestern in Happy Valley so aNinny Lion win there at least seems plausible and would be helpful. PSU still plays MSU, but an upset there would negatively affect the Buckeyes in a situation where Wisconsin winning out is assumed. A 3 way tie also helps the Buckeyes in the polls too, I think, because a 3 way tie in the Big 10 allows voters to vote the Buckeyes over the Badgers more often than in the situation that the Badgers hold the Big 10 tiebreaker over the Buckeyes.
I believe Ohio State though, will make up ground on the rest of the year vs. Wisconsin from remaing Big 10 games.
However the out of conference favors the Buckeyes now and I even think this advantage will grow.
From Sagarin:
OSU
Rank Team
21 Miami-Florida
90 Ohio University
142 Marshall
183 Eastern Michigan
Wisky
36 Arizona State
139 San Jose State
147 UNLV
206 Austin Peay
Basically the Buckeyes were already better everywhere, but I expect ASU to drop because I predict them to go 1-4 with an outside shot at 0-5 expect Miami to stay around where they are with an outside shot to improve. The rest are all terrible, but the near 50 point advantage from Ohio to San Jose St is nice also.
So basically if we win out and Wisconsin wins out we should be ahead in the computers and I suspect in the event of a 3 way tie we pull ahead in the human polls also with nice wins down the stretch.
Of course all this benefits by having the loss to only another 1 loss team in a beauty contest of Non AQs and 1 loss teams. I wouldn't be surprised to jump them after this week.
I know this may be crazy, but I'm starting to believe that Wisconsin winning out will actually help us more than hurt us. (Unless Michigan State loses twice). Of course at this point I can't see Wisconsin losing again anyway: @Purdue, Indiana, @Michigan, Northwestern.
Of course it also matters who we play that they don't and vice versa or our exclusive Big 10 opponents.
OSU's Exclusive Big 10 oppenents
Illinois
PSU
Wisky's
MSU
Northwestern
So of course this weekends Iowa-MSU game ends up being fairly neutral for UW's computer rankings while it's a boon to ours if Iowa wins. Of course Wisky (likely)needs this upset anyway to sniff a Big 10 title anyway. It happens to be a reverse situation in the PSU/scUM cripple fight. Our sos doesn't move much while a scUM win would help Wisky. PSU does play Northwestern in Happy Valley so aNinny Lion win there at least seems plausible and would be helpful. PSU still plays MSU, but an upset there would negatively affect the Buckeyes in a situation where Wisconsin winning out is assumed. A 3 way tie also helps the Buckeyes in the polls too, I think, because a 3 way tie in the Big 10 allows voters to vote the Buckeyes over the Badgers more often than in the situation that the Badgers hold the Big 10 tiebreaker over the Buckeyes.
I believe Ohio State though, will make up ground on the rest of the year vs. Wisconsin from remaing Big 10 games.
However the out of conference favors the Buckeyes now and I even think this advantage will grow.
From Sagarin:
OSU
Rank Team
21 Miami-Florida
90 Ohio University
142 Marshall
183 Eastern Michigan
Wisky
36 Arizona State
139 San Jose State
147 UNLV
206 Austin Peay
Basically the Buckeyes were already better everywhere, but I expect ASU to drop because I predict them to go 1-4 with an outside shot at 0-5 expect Miami to stay around where they are with an outside shot to improve. The rest are all terrible, but the near 50 point advantage from Ohio to San Jose St is nice also.
So basically if we win out and Wisconsin wins out we should be ahead in the computers and I suspect in the event of a 3 way tie we pull ahead in the human polls also with nice wins down the stretch.
Of course all this benefits by having the loss to only another 1 loss team in a beauty contest of Non AQs and 1 loss teams. I wouldn't be surprised to jump them after this week.
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BlufftonBuckeye
Hall of Fame
Miami's loss hurts, and losing Harris can really fuck them. If hes gone they can kiss the ACC goodbye. Hell, at this point they are probably done anyway.
Iowa is doing their part early, so that would help. And Nebraska is doing the same, looking to build on their 10-0 lead as I type.
GO BUCKS!
Iowa is doing their part early, so that would help. And Nebraska is doing the same, looking to build on their 10-0 lead as I type.
GO BUCKS!
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NateG
Can't waste the day when the night brings a hearse
Was looking at the human polls. There is a chance that we could jump Wisky with tonights win.
Coaches-Wisky(9-973 pts .6597) OSU(10-966 pts .6549)
Harris-Wisky(9-1897 pts .6656) OSU(10-1858 pts .6519)
BCS-Wisky(10- .6584) OSU(11- .6356)
According to how much OSU closes the gap or even jumps Wisky in the human polls could determine a jump in the BCS. It at least puts it were we will jump them with a win out.
Too bad we didn't get all the help we would have liked(again) but it still keeps adding up for us.
Did get a big MSU loss. And Mizzou losing helps. Wish Air Force and USC could have done more. Ole Miss just didn't have enough.
But I have already heard people with voting power comment that they want to see Alabama vs. Ohio State in the Title. Alot of voters have something against the non BCS conference teams, which would really hurt Boise and TCU's chance to get in(comps won't help them). So I think there is a chance that if Alabama wins out and Oregon loses a game that voters could help OSU sneak in. Just gotta keep winning and if possible win big.
Just to update...
Teams in the top 15 of BCS with a chance of harming OSU in a backdoor title shot(in order of danger) and games left that are possible(maybe not likely,but possible) "danger" games.
Auburn-Georg, @Ala, SECCG
Oregon-Wash, @Cal, Ariz, @Or St
Boise-Hawaii, Fres St, @Nev
TCU-@Utah, SDSU
Alabama-@LSU, Miss St, Aub, SECCG
Utah-TCU, @ND, @SDSU
Oklahoma-@ T A&M, @Bay, @OK St, B12CG
Wisky-@scUM, NW
LSU-Ala, Ole Miss, @Ark, (SECCG)
Stanford-Ariz, @ASU, @Cal, Oreg St
Nebraska-@T A&M, B12CG
Arizona-@Stan, USC, @Oreg, ASU
Mizz-KSU, (Big12CG)
Ok St-Baylor, @Tex, Okla, Big12CG
Mich St-@PSU
Then add the improbable games. There is a lot of football to go and things are still within reach. A lot of teams in the list play each other still. 1-2 games go OSU's way and things become easier.
Here is what I see after MSU and Mizz losses today
1.Aub
2.Oreg
3.Boise
4.TCU
5.Ala
6.Utah
7.Okla
8.Wisc
9. OSU
10.Neb
Left to knock each other out without other losses.
Aub/ALA, TCU/Utah, Neb/Okla-7-8
Bucks jump Wisky-6-7
Possibility to jump TCU and Boise (thanks to comps and voters polling OSU close with Big Buckeye Wins)-4-5
Only leaves 2-3 games to fall Ohio State's way.
Oregon loss somewhere
Ala/Aub loss before or after combined game
Okla/Neb loss before Big12CG and that game to go to the 2 loss team
You asked for CHAOS. Here it comes.
Coaches-Wisky(9-973 pts .6597) OSU(10-966 pts .6549)
Harris-Wisky(9-1897 pts .6656) OSU(10-1858 pts .6519)
BCS-Wisky(10- .6584) OSU(11- .6356)
According to how much OSU closes the gap or even jumps Wisky in the human polls could determine a jump in the BCS. It at least puts it were we will jump them with a win out.
Too bad we didn't get all the help we would have liked(again) but it still keeps adding up for us.
Did get a big MSU loss. And Mizzou losing helps. Wish Air Force and USC could have done more. Ole Miss just didn't have enough.
But I have already heard people with voting power comment that they want to see Alabama vs. Ohio State in the Title. Alot of voters have something against the non BCS conference teams, which would really hurt Boise and TCU's chance to get in(comps won't help them). So I think there is a chance that if Alabama wins out and Oregon loses a game that voters could help OSU sneak in. Just gotta keep winning and if possible win big.
Just to update...
Teams in the top 15 of BCS with a chance of harming OSU in a backdoor title shot(in order of danger) and games left that are possible(maybe not likely,but possible) "danger" games.
Auburn-Georg, @Ala, SECCG
Oregon-Wash, @Cal, Ariz, @Or St
Boise-Hawaii, Fres St, @Nev
TCU-@Utah, SDSU
Alabama-@LSU, Miss St, Aub, SECCG
Utah-TCU, @ND, @SDSU
Oklahoma-@ T A&M, @Bay, @OK St, B12CG
Wisky-@scUM, NW
LSU-Ala, Ole Miss, @Ark, (SECCG)
Stanford-Ariz, @ASU, @Cal, Oreg St
Nebraska-@T A&M, B12CG
Arizona-@Stan, USC, @Oreg, ASU
Mizz-KSU, (Big12CG)
Ok St-Baylor, @Tex, Okla, Big12CG
Mich St-@PSU
Then add the improbable games. There is a lot of football to go and things are still within reach. A lot of teams in the list play each other still. 1-2 games go OSU's way and things become easier.
Here is what I see after MSU and Mizz losses today
1.Aub
2.Oreg
3.Boise
4.TCU
5.Ala
6.Utah
7.Okla
8.Wisc
9. OSU
10.Neb
Left to knock each other out without other losses.
Aub/ALA, TCU/Utah, Neb/Okla-7-8
Bucks jump Wisky-6-7
Possibility to jump TCU and Boise (thanks to comps and voters polling OSU close with Big Buckeye Wins)-4-5
Only leaves 2-3 games to fall Ohio State's way.
Oregon loss somewhere
Ala/Aub loss before or after combined game
Okla/Neb loss before Big12CG and that game to go to the 2 loss team
You asked for CHAOS. Here it comes.
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Carmen Ohio
All-American
It Aint Over: Revisited
I'll say it now like I did on 11/11/07. If you take a close look at the remaining games of the teams ranked above Ohio State the Buckeyes are NOT out of the national title picture yet. Yes, it would take a minor miracle for Wisconsin to lose again but a loss at, lets say Michigan, that saves Rich Rod's job isn't that crazy. Take a look at that 2007 thread to recall the end of the year craziness that got us into the game. Oregon was supposedly unbeatable then too. If things fall right a one loss OSU leapfrogs TCU or Boise. BTW, can someone tell ESPN that USC and Mississippi are unranked teams with defenses who couldn't stop my (dead) grandmother.
I'll say it now like I did on 11/11/07. If you take a close look at the remaining games of the teams ranked above Ohio State the Buckeyes are NOT out of the national title picture yet. Yes, it would take a minor miracle for Wisconsin to lose again but a loss at, lets say Michigan, that saves Rich Rod's job isn't that crazy. Take a look at that 2007 thread to recall the end of the year craziness that got us into the game. Oregon was supposedly unbeatable then too. If things fall right a one loss OSU leapfrogs TCU or Boise. BTW, can someone tell ESPN that USC and Mississippi are unranked teams with defenses who couldn't stop my (dead) grandmother.
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NateG
Can't waste the day when the night brings a hearse
We are just a little bit ahead of you on that train.
http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/...-now-what-needs-happen-2010-chaos-theory.html
It's a good read.
http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/...-now-what-needs-happen-2010-chaos-theory.html
It's a good read.
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I feel more like we are in the mix right now if the others lose. We just have to take care of business.NateG;1802592; said:
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kippy1040
Hall of Fame
I just wonder what type of game plan will they (OSU staff) have to come up with in order to stop Iowa. They were given some breaks in the game against Mich St but they still looked damn good otherwise. The Iowa game plan may center around containing Pryor. So maybe Tressel will have a couple aces up his sleeve for this one.
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