Illinois Fighting Illini (you'll see)

[NFBuck]

Well, they did get Green correct.

Just looked at Rival's and Scout team rankings, and Illinois is no where to be found on Scout (only lists their top 25) and is #35 on Rivals. They have no 5-star commits on either site and 2/3 of their class are 3-stars and below on Rivals, while 3/4 of their class are 3-stars and below on Scout. Their overall class flat out sucks...and that's even with them stealing Green from us at the last second.

But, but...they're back. ThaKid said so last summer.

 

[OrangeRoughy]

Well, they did get Green correct.

Just looked at Rival's and Scout team rankings, and Illinois is no where to be found on Scout (only lists their top 25) and is #35 on Rivals. They have no 5-star commits on either site and 2/3 of their class are 3-stars and below on Rivals, while 3/4 of their class are 3-stars and below on Scout. Their overall class flat out sucks...and that's even with them stealing Green from us at the last second.

You see tomatoes, I see pasta puttanesca.

7 more 4-stars for the Zooker, and it would have been 9 had Drummond and Tank been anywhere close to qualifying.

Through Scarlet and Gray glasses, that's a disappointment. Through orange and blue? Glorious.

One more time:

Ron Turner 4 and 5-star recruits from 2001-2004: 7
Ron Zook 4 and 5-star recruits from 2006-2009: 26

It's cause for a damn parade in Champaign, if you ask me.

A look at the Roughy Blue-Chip Index for the past 4 recruiting classes (using Rivals - Two points for a 5-star, one point for a 4-star):

1. tOSU - 60 points
2. Michigan - 54 points
3. PSU - 35 points
4. Illinois - 28 points
5. MSU - 21 points
6. Wisconsin - 16 points
7. Minnesota - 11 points
8. Iowa - 9 points
9. Purdue - 4 points
10. Northwestern - 1 points
11. Indiana - 0 points

List the Big 10 wins over the next four seasons (when each of these classes reaches their senior seasons), and I'll be willing to bet that the rankings of total wins will be damn close to the order of this list. The Ron Zook motto: Jimmies and Joes, not X's and O's.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

But, but...they're back. ThaKid said so last summer.

is this their NC run?

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Ron Turner 4 and 5-star recruits from 2001-2004: 7
Ron Zook 4 and 5-star recruits from 2006-2009: 26

Just because your totals for 2001-2004 were galatically pathetic doesn't mean your totals for 2009 don't suck. The only reason you had 26 4*/5* recruits from 2006-2009 is because you had a good classes in 2007 and 2008 (even your 2006 class had no 5* and only three 4* players out of 27 commits).

List the Big 10 wins over the next four seasons (when each of these classes reaches their senior seasons), and I'll be willing to bet that the rankings of total wins will be damn close to the order of this list. The Ron Zook motto: Jimmies and Joes, not X's and O's.

The class of 2005 leaves with an overall record of 18-30, and a conference record of 10-22. Maybe Zooker needs to work on a new motto...

 

[Buckeye86]

A look at the Roughy Blue-Chip Index for the past 4 recruiting classes (using Rivals - Two points for a 5-star, one point for a 4-star):

1. tOSU - 60 points
2. Michigan - 54 points
3. PSU - 35 points
4. Illinois - 28 points
5. MSU - 21 points
6. Wisconsin - 16 points
7. Minnesota - 11 points
8. Iowa - 9 points
9. Purdue - 4 points
10. Northwestern - 1 points
11. Indiana - 0 points

List the Big 10 wins over the next four seasons (when each of these classes reaches their senior seasons), and I'll be willing to bet that the rankings of total wins will be damn close to the order of this list. The Ron Zook motto: Jimmies and Joes, not X's and O's.

Here's the same thing using scout's rankings (because I like them better), the results are slightly different down at the bottom end.

1. Ohio State - 66
2. Michigan - 58
3. Penn State - 44
4. Illinois - 23
5. Minnesota - 11
5. Iowa - 11
6. Wisconsin - 9
7. Michigan St. - 7
8. Purdue - 3
9. Northwestern -2
10. Indiana - 1

The most interesting thing (I think) are the trends. If I wasn't scared of the formatting I would try to post a chart. But basically, Illinois consistantly 'scores' around five points, Michigan St and Wisconsin have a few each year. Iowa has dropped considerably as 9 of their 11 points came in '06 and '07. Ohio State and Michigan always have ten or more, even though you can see the Rodriguez impact, tsun's trend: 15,16,16,11. Also Penn State has taken a nice nose dive with 14,12,9,9 over the last four years. And you can clearly see the impact Brewster has had on Minnesota as 10 of their 11 have come in the past two years.

And for people sick of Ohio State being the class of the Big Ten, they are probably going to have to deal with it for a little bit longer as we are: 15,12,19,20.

In the end recruiting rankings are pretty worthless for reasons that everyone on this board is familiar with and I won't go into, but I think this type of analysis is interesting at the very least, and it's the offseason.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

Ron Turner 4 and 5-star recruits from 2001-2004: 7
Ron Zook 4 and 5-star recruits from 2006-2009: 26

Scout 4- and 5-star recruits from 2002-2004: 745, or 248.33 per year (no data for 2001)
Scout 4- and 5-star recruits from 2006-2009: 1,340, or 335 per year

That's a 35% increase. Granted, Zook has out-recruited the increase relative to Turner, but your numbers are still skewed due to "grade inflation" by the recruiting services.

7 more 4-stars for the Zooker, and it would have been 9 had Drummond and Tank been anywhere close to qualifying.

And that's always been the rub with Zook - recruits well, but takes risks on kids with academic and character issues ... and then he can't "coach up" the kids who do stay in school and out of trouble. Which is a great recipe for an occasional "break-out" year, but a bad one for long term success.

In other words, I hope that that pasta puttanesca from 2007 still tastes good, because it looks like you might be stuck with some rotten tomatoes for a while....

A look at the Roughy Blue-Chip Index for the past 4 recruiting classes (using Rivals - Two points for a 5-star, one point for a 4-star):

1. tOSU - 60 points
2. Michigan - 54 points
3. PSU - 35 points
4. Illinois - 28 points
5. MSU - 21 points
6. Wisconsin - 16 points
7. Minnesota - 11 points
8. Iowa - 9 points
9. Purdue - 4 points
10. Northwestern - 1 points
11. Indiana - 0 points

So, if you're saying that Illinois is half as good as Ohio State, then I'll agree with you there....

 

[GrizzlyBuck]

The Ron Zook motto: Jimmies and Joes, not X's and O's.

All things being equal, I agree with the Jimmy and Joe theory, but the Zooker apparently needs to learn a little more about the X's and O's judging from UF's record with his Jimmy's and Joe's after he left, and the fact that last year he lost to a lot of teams with Jimmy's and Joe's little brothers.

That is also a way we see things differently, I wonder if some of the Jimmy's and Joe's saw his underachieving team (my opinion, based on tha kids prediction ) and decided to ply their trade elsewhere, we shall see.....

 

[NFBuck]

is this their NC run?

Yes! 2010 NC or bust!

 

[Taosman]

Coach Locksley was a big loss. They can try and spin it, but he was the guy!
The difference in the top 3 teams and the rest in recruits is wide.
The difference between OSU and Michigan/Penn State is significant.

 

[matcar]

But, but...they're back. ThaKid said so last summer.

If ThaKid said "they're back" then he was absolutely correct and you should acknowledge as much. They absolutely ARE BACK. They are back to what we've all come to expect from Illinois....a team that occasionally rises up and bites you, but most of the time, just bites. Sad really as I kinda wish they were a bit stronger.

 

[OrangeRoughy]

So much to respond to, so little time. So in the interest of brevity, I'll hit everything in this one post:

Just because your totals for 2001-2004 were galatically pathetic doesn't mean your totals for 2009 don't suck. The only reason you had 26 4*/5* recruits from 2006-2009 is because you had a good classes in 2007 and 2008 (even your 2006 class had no 5* and only three 4* players out of 27 commits).

This confuses me. Using Rivals, 2009 had more 4-stars in 2009 than 2008. The main difference I see is 9 less scholarships to give. Add seven or eight more 3-stars to this class, and 2009 would have ranked higher than 2008.

Regardless, we're splitting hairs. My main point is this: Zook has done what no coach in my 25+ years as an Illini fan has done - brought in 6 or 7 blue chip kids each season. And as I said to you guys last summer, that begins to pay dividends in 2009.

In the end recruiting rankings are pretty worthless for reasons that everyone on this board is familiar with and I won't go into, but I think this type of analysis is interesting at the very least, and it's the offseason.

If you ever want to write a doctoral thesis on the surprising value of recruiting rankings, then I have the title of your paper right here:

"Illinois Football recruiting from 1991-2003 and the success of the resulting teams from 1994-2006: A study in direct correlation."

And that's always been the rub with Zook - recruits well, but takes risks on kids with academic and character issues ... and then he can't "coach up" the kids who do stay in school and out of trouble. Which is a great recipe for an occasional "break-out" year, but a bad one for long term success.

Best post in this thread. That's been exactly the problem in the beginning of his Illinois tenure. Part of that, of course, is that he had to take risks with some kids to build some recruiting momentum (much like Brewster at Minnesota last year and his "they'll never qualify and 2 of them have pending jail time, but it looks good on paper, doesn't it?" class). Zook's first risk was his first big recruiting get, WR Derrick McPhearson, who he pulled in on signing day in 2005. Derrick then stole 25 DVD players and was gone less than two years later.

That appeared to change with this class. As the rumblings of Kraig Appleton's police problems got louder (supposedly he missed the Army AA game because police told him not to leave the state), Zook apparently backed away. And this was the first time I can remember that we heard about academic casualties before signing day (Tank Carradine, Craig Drummond) rather than after signing day. And the DE he got on signing day to replace Drummond, Michael Buchanan, is pretty damn good.

As to his inablilty to "coach 'em up", I think he finally came to grips with that in 2008 as well. Locksley's departure gave an opportunity to overhaul our "yards but no points" offense, so he hired TCU's OC to do the job. Despite talent, the D-line underperformed, so he fired Tom Sims, pursued Larry Johnson, and finally hired Brian Kelly's right hand man at Cincy. He let Eric Wolford out the back door and hired an O-line coach from Houston. Will they improve the results on the field? Every fan of every team with new assistant coaches thinks so. But for me, I'm glad he looked across the college football landscape and said "I like how Houston led the country in total offense, I like how TCU runs the ball out of the spread option, and I like how Brian Kelly's teams win with defense. I'll take assistants from each, please".

Will it work? God I hope so. This is the most talent assembled in Champaign, well, ever.

One more thing. I think I'm gonna make this my signature over here, just so you guys remember:

8-4 in Columbus: "If this happens again next year, what do you think the exit strategy is for Tressel?"
8-4 in Champaign: "Why haven't we locked up Zook for 10 years like Iowa did with Ferentz?"

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

So much to respond to, so little time. So in the interest of brevity, I'll hit everything in this one post:


This confuses me. Using Rivals, 2009 had more 4-stars in 2009 than 2008. The main difference I see is 9 less scholarships to give. Add seven or eight more 3-stars to this class, and 2009 would have ranked higher than 2008.

Regardless, we're splitting hairs. My main point is this: Zook has done what no coach in my 25+ years as an Illini fan has done - brought in 6 or 7 blue chip kids each season. And as I said to you guys last summer, that begins to pay dividends in 2009."

Wow. Your 2009 Rivals class had seven 4-stars (Buchanan, Buckner, Golden, Green, Hawthorne, Hill, and Scheelhaase) and your 2008 Rivals class has six 4-stars (Ellis, Graham, Hardeman, Liuget, Pocic, and Scott). So what?

Going over your 25+ years as an Illinois fan, I see a distinct pattern: In the '80s, you had a 10-win season (1983) and then waited six years for a another big season (1989), and then it repeated in the '00s (10-win season in 2001 followed six years later by a 9-win season in 2007). That means you'll have to wait until the early 2020s for your next 10-win season. It's time for Illinois to have another 12-13 seasons of going 6-5, 4-8, 5-7, with maybe an 8-4 season in there somewhere.

Zook gets way too much credit...his 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 recruiting classes didn't keep you from going 5-7 last year. The 2007 season the cyclical aberration I noted above...nothing more.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

One more thing. I think I'm gonna make this my signature over here, just so you guys remember:

8-4 in Columbus: "If this happens again next year, what do you think the exit strategy is for Tressel?"
8-4 in Champaign: "Why haven't we locked up Zook for 10 years like Iowa did with Ferentz?"

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.... Different perspectives, to be sure.

 

[OrangeRoughy]

Wow. Your 2009 Rivals class had seven 4-stars (Buchanan, Buckner, Golden, Green, Hawthorne, Hill, and Scheelhaase) and your 2008 Rivals class has six 4-stars (Ellis, Graham, Hardeman, Liuget, Pocic, and Scott). So what?

So.... you told me that only the '07 and '08 classes were solid and I showed you otherwise?

Additionally, do you have any idea what it's like for an Illinois fan to look under the tree on Signing morning and find 7 blue chippers? It's the kid who got Lincoln Logs every. damn. year. and one year wakes to find a slightly used PS2. Sure, it's not an XBox 360, but a PS2 to a kid with Lincoln Logs is like a kid with Lincoln Logs getting a PS2.

(Editor's note: Henceforth I will use the term "Lincoln Logs" to refer to the last 25 years of Illinois recruiting. Mostly all from the Land of Lincoln, mostly all Logs.)

I've probably said this 6 other times in this thread, but as a follower of Illinois recruiting for a generation, it has never been this good. Ever.

Going over your 25+ years as an Illinois fan, I see a distinct pattern: In the '80s, you had a 10-win season (1983) and then waited six years for a another big season (1989), and then it repeated in the '00s (10-win season in 2001 followed six years later by a 9-win season in 2007). That means you'll have to wait until the early 2020s for your next 10-win season. It's time for Illinois to have another 12-13 seasons of going 6-5, 4-8, 5-7, with maybe an 8-4 season in there somewhere.

I see another distinct pattern: crappy recruiting classes for 25+ years, with the exception of the beginning of the Mike White era (when he straight up paid Jucos from California), the middle of the Mackovic era (before he mailed it in the last two recruiting years and took the Texas job), and the beginning of the Turner era (he hit the road hard his first few years, landing guys like Kurt Kittner and Brandon Lloyd - after that he felt he could rely on his "system").

Zook gets way too much credit...his 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 recruiting classes didn't keep you from going 5-7 last year. The 2007 season the cyclical aberration I noted above...nothing more.

I agree that last year was an aberration. Some of the 2/3-star recruits from Turner's final class (J Leman, Chris Norwell, Kevin Mitchell) turned out to be pretty good. Combine that with some of Zook's young skill players, a home-heavy schedule, and you had a team that backed into the Rose Bowl (*offers high five to tOSU*).

And as I told you guys last summer, year four would be a step back for us. I totally disagreed with our preseason ranking. There were still many Turner Two Stars on the field, we gutted the D, and we had to replace Mendenhall.

But I also said that 2009 would be our leap. I still believe that. The solid 2006, 2007, and 2008 classes will be seniors, juniors, and sophomores (or one class less as redshirts). The systems will have been in place for 5 years. We return 9 starters on offense and 7 on defense. We get road games at Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota. Several of our opponents have single digit returning starters (Mizzou, Penn State).

So I'm on record, I see 10-3 next season. After that, a couple 8-5, 7-6, and 9-4 seasons (giving us our first back-to-back bowls since GHWB was in office). And that, my friends, will be cause for riotous celebrations in Champaign.

 

[osugrad21]

Roughy, you need to come around here more often.