Echoing members on BP, and even the great Nick Saban himself, offenses wins championships in today's college football. The rules favor the offense: late hit, roughing the passer, targeting, etc protect the offense, and linemen allowed 3 yards downfield on pass plays can really mess with defensive keys. And believe it or not, our opponents have professional coaches & scholarship athletes too to take advantage of the same rules. Every title run would likely have to go through good opposing offenses (or mediocre ones playing out of their minds for one game) that can score more points than a defense is comfortable giving up. Elite offenses have to be reliable enough to win shootouts when defenses struggle.
For example, '19 LSU & '20 Bama both had to won multiple shootouts during their title run, even though they fielded better defenses then '21 tOSU. Notable games (Off/Def rankings from
FEI):
- '19 LSU (#1 O, #8 D in '19)
- LSU 45 - 38 Tejas (#9 O, #45 D)
- LSU 46 - 41 Bama (#2 O, #11 D)
- '20 Bama (#1 O, #21 D in '20)
- Bama 63 - 48 Ole Miss (#8 O, #118 D)
- Bama 52 - 46 Florida (#10 O, #55 D)
'19 LSU in fact fielded a top-10 defense, coordinated by Dave Aranda, now Baylor's head coach, whose defense stoned Okie State twice on the goal-line, including once as time expired to win the Big 12 championship. The '19 LSU-Bama game is the classic example of two great offenses going against two good defenses in a shoot-out. As for '20 Bama, as good as their offense were, let's just say they were lucky none of the good offenses they faced were paired with good defenses (Florida was mediocre, Ole Miss was straight trash).
Back to '21 tOSU (#1 O, #40 D) and its Ls:
- tOSU 28 - 35 Oregon (#12 O, #44 D)
- tOSU 27 - 42 TTUN (#4 O, #11 D)
As bad as the defense has looked in the 2 losses, the bad defensive performance both came against good offensive teams. I hate to admit it, but TTUN in particular is legit this year on both sides of the ball; they have a defense good enough to slow the Buckeyes O down, and an offense good enough the score on the Buckeyes D. TTUN O, despite all the Manball jokes, is actually top-5, ranked only behind the Buckeyes, Bama, and Joja. Against Wisconsin (#3 D in '21) & Iowa (#4 D), TTUN scored 38 & 42 respectively.
There is no doubt Day's offense produced; it is by far the #1 O in '21, albeit in a down year for offenses across CFB. However, like I've said in the
'21 Offense thread, it is not elite yet. The ceiling is super high, but the floor is not high enough. There is reason to be optimistic, as the '21 offense is manned by 1st year starter at many key positions, and have stopped themselves way more often than the opponents did: dropped passes, missed throws, forced INTs, false starts, etc. One concern I do have though, is the
amount of runs on 3rd & 4th short that were stuffed in '21.
Now, all that isn't to say the defense doesn't matter or doesn't need fixed. While it is OK to give up points to a good offense, the defense at least has to make the opposing team earn it. Penix throwing darts when the world is collapsing around him or Dotson catching back-to-back arm punts with one hand is one thing. Allowing 7+ ypc on the ground when the opposing QB is Anthony Brown or Cade McNamara ... that is simply inexcusable.