For starters, great job breaking down what you see in our team. We welcome intelligent posts, even when they criticize our team.
We will be doing an indepth breakdown of both teams featured in front page articles... you and/or someone else should make a post in the administration subforum (click on forums up above to see the forum breakdowns).
hookemhorns2004 said:
Next game vs 4-7 PSU Lions @ home they win 21-10. Thanks to 1 punt return TD by Ginn, an INT return by the defense, and the only other TD was set up by a 65 yard KO return. Smith was not the reason why OSU won this game...hell he only completed 6 passes for 59 yards. The running game was horrible as well avg 3.3 ypc. The special teams bailed them out. PSU had more first downs and more yards then OSU. Still a loss is a loss. But were not talking about the 1986 Nittany Lions here.
When you score three times without trying, you are obviously not going to have much in the way of offensive statistics. Penn State's defense was arguably the best in the big ten and one of the best in the nation. They had the playmakers that could cause turnovers and get them back in the game. Their offense was so bad that Tressel knew only turnovers caused by their D could get PSU back in the game. Therefore they had incredibly uncreative playcalling and just milked the click.
Next game vs MSU on the road that happened to finish at 5-7 on the year. Third game in a row OSU beats a team with a losing record. You guys do know that despite the 32-19 final score, that OSU was losing this game 17-19 with 1:37 left in the game? Ted Ginn scored on a 58-yard pass to take the lead. AJ Hawk INT sealed the deal, and with 25 seconds left Hall scored on a meaningless 51 yard run with 20 seconds left.
Kansas was 4-7, and look how close you came to losing to them. Mighty USC barely beat Stanford.
In that game the best kicker probably this decade Nugent hit a 53 yarder, and Ginn scored on another punt return for a TD. MSU almost doubled OSU in first downs, and had 400 yards on offense (100 more then OSU). And this is with their 2nd team QB as Stanton was out. Not so sure how convinced I am after that game. Smith had a decent game but Ginn was the showstopper.
I think that's a fair assessment. Smith and Ginn changed the overall outlook, but both were rusty at first. In that game we saw our first flashes of Gonzalez, without whom I doubt we have nearly as much success against the wolvies.
They lost to Purdue on the road the following game (who happen to have won 7 games). And I guess what everyone seems to forget about this loss is Kyle Orton only played in the 4th quarter because of a hip injury. Troy Smith looked awful in throwing 3 INTs and fumble turnover in the game.
Very fair, there were some ugly things in that game. However two of the INTs were perfect passes that the WRs dropped (very uncharacteristically). And as has been pointed out, we had 1 starting corner and missed our 3 other starting DBs and our best backup to injury. The DC played a zone, and Purdue's talented backup picked it apart. The DC switched to man-to-man in the second half, and they shut out the Purdue passing attack. Then, to the bane of OSU fans everywhere, the DC went back to soft coverage and Orton looked like himself again and picked it apart to win. The lone impressive thing was that our healthy DB, Youboty, flat out shut down AA Stubblefield (the game before he shut down Edwards).
I think the thing you need to realize is this: OSU had the ball at the 1 yardline twice and marched all the way down the field. They had fairly poor field position yet were able to put up tons of points.
The other key:
OSU never established a running game and dominated the scoreboard through the air. Brandon Joe had some impressive runs out of our own endzone, but after the 30 we forgot how to run the ball. Yet despite this fact we managed to dominate offensively thanks to uncoverable WRs.
Go look at the gamestats if you didn’t think something was in the air in Stillwater.
Very interesting tidbits... I think we still were dominant on offense but it was very strange that they didn't try to run. I doubt they would have had tons of success, but it would have at least made playaction passes believable.
Are we also forgetting that Zwick was the QB in this game not Smith? What does that mean for you tOSU fans? You’re betting on a QB in Smith who will be playing his first game since November of last year. Smith missed the Alamo Bowl and he’ll be missing OSU’s first game of the year vs Miami Ohio. BOL.
I have know idea what BOL means, btw. There is no way Zwick is our QB. Those who have seen practice know that the team rallies around Smith differently, much like they probably did in Austin when VY took over.
The RB situation is even more of a mess. So. Antonio Pittman is the likely starter (400 yards last year). Many are saying RFR Erik Haw has all the makings to be a star, but he’s never even ran the ball in college and his status is up in the air since he got busted with pot just a little bit ago. They are bringing in a super recruit in Maurice Wells, but please…were talking Sept. 10th here not Nov. 10. After losing Ross and Hall the running game may be even worse in the early going. BOL.
Agreed that Wells can't be talked up any more than Charles, tho Wells will be ready for the hits as he's up to 193 lbs and benching over 400. But that doesn't necessarily mean he's ready.
Haw will be ready to go, as a first time offender doesn't get in that big of trouble. There is a serious chance that Tressel could keep him in his doghouse thru that game (people love to rip on Tressel based on what their fed by ESPiN, but JT does punish kids beyond the NCAA consequences).
If you watched the spring game, you should have seen a pretty good RB in Pittman. I doubt anyone expects him to be all-big 10, but he should be very solid out there with a litle bit of flash.
They return everybody on the OL, which is supposed to be pretty good. Phil Steele rates the unit 17th while sporting news doesn’t have them in the top 10. Tressel ball is about pounding it out with the run, but this unit paved the way for a rushing attack that ranked 71st in the country, and a passing attack that ranked 97th. Overall the Buckeye offense ranked 98th in the country last year. But I know, I know Buckeye fans…look at the last two games of the year….I know, I know. tOSU won a lot of games through the brilliant special teams of Ginn’s punt returns and mister auotomatic K Mike Nugent (bye-bye). BOL.
No doubt special teams gives us a huge edge, but Huston's prett darn good too. He's no nugent (who is)... but he should be an excellent replacement. Ginn will now also be on kickoff returns, improving an already good kick return unit (I'm referring to the blocking as well). Tressel's obsession with special teams is a big reason why an average guy like Maurice Hall is our all-time KR yardage holder at OSU.
Yes your WR corp is salty, but I don’t hype them as much as some have. Holmes is a stud. I’m even hearing about the Buckeyes brag about some Gonzalez kid. 8 catches last year?
He deserves more hpe than Shipley or Quan... merely b/c they haven't proven themselves. Yes he had 8 catches, but many of them were big ones. His catches against MSU, Purdue, Michigan and OkState were big time catches. But you're right, he has more to prove. He looked pretty good in the spring game in awful conditions.
Ginn is magnificent with the ball in his hands. But he really hasn’t gotten the WR position down just yet to give him all this hype. He has 25 catches for 2 TDs and he’s now Jerry Rice? Half those catches coming in two games? Were was he vs Purdue? Penn St.? This guy was a QB in HS and was implemented as the starting WR I think until midway in the season.
I don't think we see him as Jerry Rice... most of us have constantly said Holmes is our best WR (and he's not Jerry Rice, but still quite good).
His route running improved a ton as the year progressed, and he was becoming uncoverable by the end of teh season. His route running has apparently improved incredibly during the offseason, and unlike certain rumors that seems like a likely one. He showed excellent separation last year, so with extra practice he should be even more deadly.
Ginn makes his mark in the punt return game. He may be the most dynamic punt returner in awhile. No question. Does Mack even kick the ball to this guy? Also Texas has ALWAYS had exceptional punt coverage teams (I said punt). Add to the fact that the new gunner on punt returns is the All-American and track star Michael Huff…well let’s just see. I can’t even remember the last time someone has even had a long return via the punt vs the Horns. Including NCAA record setting OU’s Antonio Perkins. This isn’t Indiana, PSU, or MSU that Ginn is returning kicks on. Texas has bigger and faster athletes then those squads. So we shall see. I still would rather Mack kick the damn ball out of bounds because Ginn is scary.
He'd be very smart to do so. That's what Purdue did, and it helped them a lot. But it is very difficult to punt effectively out of bounds, as shown by OkState's talented punter in the Alamo Bowl.
While Michigan has some speed issues at LB, they definitely have the personnel to cover punts. My favorite punt return is still the one before Ginn took it to the house. The guy got blown up immediately upon catching it, someow stays on his feet, and nearly avoids the last tackle. That play shows just how dangerous he is, and how rarely he gets tackled cleanly.
There was a reason why tOSU was ranked 98th in the country in offense, and I’m sorry having two good games to end the year doesn’t make you the next MNC IMO.
We have a long way to become the next champ. But you should go check the statistics of our team in 02, and realize just how meager that offense was once Clarett got injured (he never fully recovered).
They will be facing a Texas defense that was ranked 24th overall, and 18th in points allowed. Texas like tOSU also loses a DC for the second year in a row…but unlike hiring a position coach within they actually upgraded to last year’s Frank Broyles Asst. Coach of the Year in Auburn’s Gene Chizik.
On paper, Chizik looks much better. Heck, he looks outstanding. But many times great DCs have failed to maintain the same level of success at their next job. I expect Chizik to succeed, but Auburn clearly had a lot of talent in their defensive ranks. This is obviously a complement to Texas given his comment, but it wasn't as tho he was doing this with an average bunch of guys.
On the other hand, one thing we'd argue is that our defensive coaches work as a unit at times, and for some reason Snyder called the shots from the field (an inferior method in the opinions of many). The defense will not change at all under Heacock, except that he will be viewing the game from the booth. Also keep in mind that people wondered how we'd ever replace top DC Dantonio when he went to Cincinnati.
The poor rushing attack of OSU must face the best DT tandem in the country in All-American Rod Wright, All-Big 12 Larry Dibbles, and the youngster who was the #1 DT out of HS and freshman All-American last year Frank Okam. Most games are won in the trenches and I think we know who will win this battle
Michigan's OL & DL were highly touted as well. Their DL was probably a few rankings behind, but I'd put their OL right up there.
Also, in addition to passing all over your team, they had reasonable success on the ground. Hart was over 4 ypc. I still have no idea why they didn't run it on that last 3rd down (especially since they had a good deal of success running it on that drive). Instead they threw it to Mr. Braylon allstar-except-for-easy-catches Edwards.
The LB corp as Phil Steele’s 2nd team All-American in Aaron Harris in the middle, and Eric Hall last year’s starter on the outside returning. The loss of DJ of course is big.
Excellent analysis. I think Harris will be tough, but its nice to see someone acknowledge the loss of DJ. We have the talent to replace Hawk, but his loss would obviously be felt if the scenario were similar.
The secondary is rock solid top to bottom with a ton of depth. Michael Huff (fastest Longhorn on the team) the All-American FS has been cross training at CB for two years now, and has seen a ton of more CB duty this spring. Makes me believe come the tOSU game he will be matched one on one with Ginn. Huff did this one time last year and he shut down OU’s Mark Clayton completely. This secondary is one of the best in the country with size and speed across the board.
I realize he's your best guy sticking with Ginn, but I can't repeat often enough that Holmes is the #1 target. He's the guy who will school top DBs with his elite route running which is complemented by his speed, athleticism and hands.
I hear all this talk about the OSU defense and what they can do, but the biggest mismatch in this game is going to be the tOSU offense vs the Texas defense.
Now were on to the vaunted tOSU defense ranked 30th overall last season. Very, very good defense.
9 players return on defense. Did I mention they lost their DC to a head coaching spot for the second year in a row? And he was replaced by a position coach who has been coaching the DL for the last 10 years?
You could argue that our DL won't be as good without him, but I'm not sure why he can't coach our defense effectively. Our defense works with a coaching unit, and the one gripe we had with Snyder was that he was not aggressive enough. That should change under Heacock. He won't overdo it (at least not in general), but he won't be as content to sit back and play it safe (which is alwas a horrible plan in my book, at least when you do it repeatedly).
I can’t complain to much about the defense they are stout, and most of Tressels defenses are stout. One game that you guys just might want to dust off and watch from last year is the gametape of the Northwestern/OSU game. The Cats are probably the only team OSU faced last year that runs kinda of the same plays as Texas. Most importantly Texas’ bread and butter play the zone read. The Cats don’t run it as much but they did have tremendous success on it with the over pursuing tOSU defense. The Cats beat tOSU by rolling up 444 yards and 33 points. Very early in the year I’ll admit but Noah Herron and Bret Basenez had a damn good day. Noone runs this play in college football better then Texas.
I appreciate that you showed it is a weakness but that it could have been because it was early in the year. The thing I would argue about Texas is that Benson is gone, therefore that prowess may change some. It could be a weakness, we'll see.
I keep hearing all this talk about the Texas offense and what are they going to do vs the OSU defense. Are we forgetting that the Texas offense ranked 7th best in the country last year? Everybody wants to talk about the passing game but we are forgetting that Texas avgs 300 yards rushing per game, 2nd best rushing attack in the country.
Everyone thought OSU would be fine as Lydell Ross seemed poised to become the next best RB in 2003. I doubt your RBs will struggle like him, but I'm saying that losing arguably the best RB in the country (like we did after 02, and you did after last year) renders this statistic useless. Your OL should make it easier next year for any RB, but until that RB proves himself we are going to question how much was Benson dominating any defense that attempted to stop him.
The offense avg 32.3 PPG, but this schedule was fairly easy with only 3 real tough games. In the games vs Arkie, OU, and Mizzu the horns avg 14 PPG. 4 home games, 1 road, 1 neutral.
I do not think he will be a pocket passer against OSU. But I think the defense will scheme to make him do this. Therefore, I'm not sure why we can't take these games as encouraging examples. Greg Davis seems to be retarded on a regular basis, so if he "takes what the defense gives him" he'll try to turn VY into a pocket passer. Who knows whether OSU can succeed at forcing him to pass to beat them, but if they can I think this bodes very well for OSU given GD's playcalling in big games.
basically everything you would incorporate in an offense when you have a 6’6 220 lb. QB that runs a 4.4 forty. The Texas offense took off... The Final 6 games were… @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Okie St., @Kansas, A&M, Michigan. 5 of the above 6 teams played in a bowl game.
VY goes for 86-138 for a 62% Completion Percentage, he had 1091 passing yards, 4 passing TDs and 6 INTs.
VY on the ground rushes for 778 yards (130 yards per game) on 111 attempts (7.0 YPC). He scored 13 rushing TDs in those 6 games.
17 total TDs for VY in 6 games. The offense avg 38.2 PPG. In other words VY run the damn ball because outside of Ginn and Bush you may be the most dangerous player with the ball in your hands. The success of the run also helped complete more passes for more yards since teams were going all out to stop his running game.
Sounds like a smart move by GD. On to those opponents during which the turnaround occured (I hate to resort to merely statistics, but I have not watched most of these teams enough to know them any other way... feel free to explain more about them)
Scoring Defense (nationall):
Texas Tech 67, Colorado 61, Okie St 56, Kansas 34, A&M 47, Michigan 42.
Not that impressive, at least at first glance. Average teams.
Comparatively (during OSU's turnaround):
Indiana 88, Penn St 5, Mich St 72, Purdue 15, Michigan 42, Okie St 56...
Now do you see why we didn't risk much against PSU's D? And maybe Purdue was tougher than some Texans think, when combined with the injuries at DB. IU, MSU clearly aren't that great on D.
Do you now understand why the Longhorn Nation is so giddy? Those who don’t follow Texas closely probably will look back and say…well OU shut them down, Mizzu shut them down, Arkie almost beat them. The proof is in the numbers, that this is a totally different offense then the one you saw the opening half of the season.
Totally understandable. I don't know that we try to diminish your optimism, we just question your unproven talent and your coach (had he not beaten Carr, who is well known for choking in big games, the criticism of Mack would not have eased up for the first time in a while).
Scoring defenses, to keep with my theme (again, these are merely numbers, not facts):
OU 11, Missouri 23, Arkansas 50
Our tough matchups early:
NC State 25, Marshall 37, Wisconsin 6, Iowa 16
Key in all of these games? Great DLs, against a young ineffective line.
The Horns have a question mark at RB coming into the season as well. Texas has always been a football factory at RB with 10 straight seasons of someone gaining a 1,000 yards. The last couple Cedric Benson, Ricky Williams, and Preist Holmes haven’t been too shabby. Selvin Young has been in the program for 4 years now and I rememeber three years ago in spring ball everyone was proclaiming him to be the better of Benson but he could just never shake the injury bug. Young will be fine and despite not playing much the last two years there is a reason Steele rated him the 40th best RB and no OSU players at all in his rankings.
I've continuously posted on here (even with no horns around) that Young will be a stud if he stays healthy. However, Priest wasn't exactly a standout at UT was he (not that he had a chance with Ricky there)? He's one of my favorite players in the NFL, I just mean o say that he doesn't seem like a legit example of a great UT RB... kind of similar to how Michigan fans claim Drew Henson or other Michigan QBs as great examples of Michigan's QB prowess when those guys were quite average in school.
I see most are knocking the Horns WRs and well they should. Three of the top 4 starting WRs last year were freshman. They were gonna take their lumps playing behind the Big 3. Three of the top 4 WR return along with the best receiver on the team TE David Thomas. Since tOSU fans can claim Gonzalez, I guess I can make a case for the return of Quan Cosby and more importantly the return from injured Jordan Shipley. Scroll down the list of Steele’s top WRs and notice the first FR that appears on the list at 30 overall. Shipley. He holds every single Texas HS receiving record, and was tearing it up in the spring before the injury. Shipley and Sweed will start at WR. Not the greatest combo threat in the world, but they are an upgrade from last year. OSU will stop the pass, will they stop the run and playmaking of VY?
Extremely fair analysis again... his post clearly deserves a great post award (not only for the quality, but as a shining example of how to show confidence in your team's prowess in an intelligent way.
So with tOSU have a very suspect offense without a lot of experience at the most important positions QB & RB, a stout defense with the best LBs, great return game, great big game coach and two brand new kickers.
At Texas you have a Heisman Caliber QB who will be 18-2 as a starter going into the game, suspect RB, great OL, and a defense that seems to be getting overshadowed by OSU for some reason but on paper as far as talent, statistically, and the coordinator are better.
Your coordinator was great at Auburn. We'll see how he does in basically his first game when he comes to Columbus (ULL is hardly a warmup, whereas Miami will be a reasonably good warmup for our team).
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Avg scoring D faced by OSU: 43.5
Avg scoring D faced by UT: 57.2
And just for xrayrandy:
Avg yardage D faced by OSU: 40.6
Avg yardage D faced by UT: 56.9
Xray, here is why yardage means nothing... would you argue that Rice has a better D than Arkansas? B/c Rice is 50th and Arkansas 75th in yardage, versus scoring defense (the truer test) where Rice is 104th and Arkansas 50.
However I would argue that while scoring defense determines the outcome, it can explain why OSU struggled at times on offense (NC State - 1st, Iowa - 11, Wisconsin - 9, Penn St - 10, Purdue - 40). But I stand by my original statement that scoring defense is what should be looked at typically.
Like I was saying, people get defensive. Just for the record, I'm not a huge fan of his lifestyle choices. In fact, I've been pretty critical of him regarding this crap with the weed and the Dolphins. But that discussion is for another day.
Bah, damn cultural differences. I'll shut up now.