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Game Thread Game Two: #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 (9/9/06)

A 1-sided argument, just the Offense

I still come back to the following -

Texas, lost from the 2005 team offensive output totalling just over 60% of their TDs. Their returning "base" accounts for 30+ TDs by my count.

Ohio State lost from their 2005 team offensive output just over 34% of the the TDs scored. The returning "base" accounts for 27 TDs by my count.

We all know that this isn't a zero-sum game, new or maturing players do step up and pick up the slack. Stars waiting in the wings get to play larger roles on game-day. Plus, there is the Vince Young scoreline dialtion effect. UT simply had a much higher scoring output last year with a whopping 83 TDs - no other team in the Big 12, regardless of compass, came within spitting distance. (TT was north of 50 TDs, but c'mon, there is a whole season's worth of difference between that scoring output and 81 TDs. Literally for some teams, [hello Baylor] a season's worth).

Now, it may not be that Texas has to match the giddy numbers of last year to have a year that takes them to BCS or beyond. Still, the quantity of "slack" to be made up following Young's departure was already massive (accounted by arm and foot for 38 TDs out of 83). Even after accounting for Taylor's points output and the TE position the UT faithful can point to the base of 30+ TDs as a comforting stat. Except, except, that the ability of the team to produce those other receiving and rushing TDs was surely keyed significantly to the strong focus teams had to place on Young.

It could be effectively argued that Texas has to make up more than the simple "Slack" of 60% of TD offense this year. Conversely, for Ohio State our make up the slack model is less onerous (though Holmes was a huge contributor, huge). It might effectively be argued that the Buckeyes of the 2nd half of the season being so much more fluid, they can easily exceed the 2005 offensive output.

Interesting stuff.
 
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I still come back to the following -

Texas, lost from the 2005 team offensive output totalling just over 60% of their TDs. Their returning "base" accounts for 30+ TDs by my count.

Ohio State lost from their 2005 team offensive output just over 34% of the the TDs scored. The returning "base" accounts for 27 TDs by my count.

We all know that this isn't a zero-sum game, new or maturing players do step up and pick up the slack. Stars waiting in the wings get to play larger roles on game-day. Plus, there is the Vince Young scoreline dialtion effect. UT simply had a much higher scoring output last year with a whopping 83 TDs - no other team in the Big 12, regardless of compass, came within spitting distance. (TT was north of 50 TDs, but c'mon, there is a whole season's worth of difference between that scoring output and 81 TDs. Literally for some teams, [hello Baylor] a season's worth).

Now, it may not be that Texas has to match the giddy numbers of last year to have a year that takes them to BCS or beyond. Still, the quantity of "slack" to be made up following Young's departure was already massive (accounted by arm and foot for 38 TDs out of 83). Even after accounting for Taylor's points output and the TE position the UT faithful can point to the base of 30+ TDs as a comforting stat. Except, except, that the ability of the team to produce those other receiving and rushing TDs was surely keyed significantly to the strong focus teams had to place on Young.

It could be effectively argued that Texas has to make up more than the simple "Slack" of 60% of TD offense this year. Conversely, for Ohio State our make up the slack model is less onerous (though Holmes was a huge contributor, huge). It might effectively be argued that the Buckeyes of the 2nd half of the season being so much more fluid, they can easily exceed the 2005 offensive output.

Interesting stuff.

great... now do the same thing with total tackles. the Buckeyes lost their top EIGHT tacklers... what's that, like 90% of the total?
 
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Yeah, but the offense doesn't score on every play, while the defense makes a tackle on nearly every play... :nerd:
WOW.... you're like, so smart... :roll1:

come on, you get my point... losing 53 (or whatever) of 83 TDs is losing 64% of the total TDs, which is quite significant... losing 529 out of 745 tackles, which was 71% is every bit, if not MORE significant... if only for the point that sometimes a tackle ISN'T made on a play- because it's a freaking touchdown...
 
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WOW.... you're like, so smart... :roll1:

come on, you get my point... losing 53 (or whatever) of 83 TDs is losing 64% of the total TDs, which is quite significant... losing 529 out of 745 tackles, which was 71% is every bit, if not MORE significant... if only for the point that sometimes a tackle ISN'T made on a play- because it's a freaking touchdown...

Its alot easier to replace tackles than TDs.
 
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It could be effectively argued that Texas has to make up more than the simple "Slack" of 60% of TD offense this year. Conversely, for Ohio State our make up the slack model is less onerous (though Holmes was a huge contributor, huge). It might effectively be argued that the Buckeyes of the 2nd half of the season being so much more fluid, they can easily exceed the 2005 offensive output.

Interesting stuff.
Looking at TDs scored is one way to gauge the loss of offensive output, but if you look at the UT-tOSU game from last year, everybody that scored for both teams is gone except Billy Pittman and Limas Sweed.
 
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Its alot easier to replace tackles than TDs.
i'm not saying it isn't... but the deal is, the FEWER tackles a team makes over the course of the season, the better... if a team has 900 or 1,000 tackles it means that the other team had the ball the whole time, and that team also most likely has several losses... so basically, the '06 team could very well have more than 729 tackles, and that would indicate that the tackles have been effectively replaced, but the net defensive production would be worse because they weren't getting off the field after 3rd down. that, in itsself, would significantly inflate the total...
 
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The way it was left at the end of spring, Quan was Flanker, Pittman was the slot receiver and Sweed was at split end. UT will run 3 wide at least 50% of the time, so that is what you will usually see. Everyone who has reported from practices says that Shipley is the best WR on the team. He plays either flanker or slot. When he eventually starts I expect to see him at flanker. I could see see Sweed, Pittman, Quan and Shipley with 40 or so catches each by the end of the year.

Texas is real good at receiver for the first 6. Nate Jones (23 games 5 starts) really came on in the spring and will be a solid backup at flanker and/or slot. Myron Hardy has created quite a stir as well as Sweeds backup at SE. He is a better athlete than Sweed and has better instincts around the ball. He catches in traffic like basketball player rebounding, placing his back to the defender and blocking out with his elbows. He reminds me of Kwame Cavil that way. He will do well this year in a backup role. When you add in Finley at TE, Texas has a very solid receiving corp.

I expect Texas will stay with roughly a 60:40 run/pass split in terms of plays called (45 run 30 pass or thereabouts). That is what coach Davis does and with those receivers WRs and talented passing QBs, I do not expect Davis will shy away from the passing game. When Benson was a senior in 2004 the coaches fed him the ball a lot. I don't think any one player will get that kind of attention this year.

40 Passes for four wide recievers when noone on UT had 40 last year when you had Vince Young instead of a greener than green QB.

Yes I could see one this year, maybe 2. Someone will have to make up for some of Thomas's(TE) 50 receptions but a lot of those will come from Finely right?

Please don't tell me you really expect all four of those guys to have 40 catches each this year.
 
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Texas, lost from the 2005 team offensive output totalling just over 60% of their TDs.

I'm not sure where you get 60%. Texas returns players who score 31 of the 55 rushing TDs and 17 of 26 TDs receiving for a total of 48 of 81 for 59% returning on offense.

Those 48 TDs are still more than the 41 offensive TDs scored by tOSU last year, and alot more than the 27 TD production that tOSU returns. That is a 21 TD advantage over tOSU. Even if you want to pretend that teh UT QBs will not throw a single TD pass this year Texas still holds a 31 to 27 advantage in returning touchdown production. This is definitely a case where a percentage argument doesn't mean squat.
 
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I'm not sure where you get 60%. Texas returns players who score 31 of the 55 rushing TDs and 17 of 26 TDs receiving for a total of 48 of 81 for 59% returning on offense.

Those 48 TDs are still more than the 41 offensive TDs scored by tOSU last year, and alot more than the 27 TD production that tOSU returns. That is a 21 TD advantage over tOSU. Even if you want to pretend that teh UT QBs will not throw a single TD pass this year Texas still holds a 31 to 27 advantage in returning touchdown production. This is definitely a case where a percentage argument doesn't mean squat.

Yada yada yada. You scored all the those TDs against shit defenses. How many of those 81 TDs did you score against us? Two. Fucking two. And there was exactly 44 minutes between the two.
 
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this year's ohio state offense will be more explosive than texas's from a year ago. we will score and score quickly early then pound the ball to seal the deal. would love to see our stats if we could beat up on baylor and texas tech each week.:osu:
 
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Yada yada yada. You scored all the those TDs against shit defenses. How many of those 81 TDs did you score against us? Two. Fucking two. And there was exactly 44 minutes between the two.

Yada, yada, yada. We only needed two. Now, we all know this year will be much different, your offense will dominate, even against our superior returning defense, in our house, at night (haha, kidding :wink2: .....not but seriously, it is at night, as you know). Hopefully your new defense will be able to hold our incompetent, though stacked and explosive, returning offense from scoring, I dont know, 3 TD's?? That might do it this year. It might not. Nonetheless, we have the first matchup W and the onus is on you to produce, not us. Assuming we can get maybe 70% offensive production compared to last year, and God forbid, if your new D happens to be on par with other "shitty" Big 12 defenses like OU, KU, etc that we tore apart, well, then I guess you can book our ticket to the National Championship game again, no? Ahh, who am I kidding, we've got a RS-Fr QB. It will be 1 on 11. No shot....
 
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