I wouldn't say that 3.9 ypc in sloppy conditions on the road against a strong run defense was being "shut down".
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scarletngrey11
All right, all right, all right.
Especially when our passing offense couldnt do shit, he was the only offensive player that had a decent game...
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for some reason far beyond me, pittman is judged by an extremely tough set of criteria. The kid has gone out and gotten it done every single game this year. He may not be a 25 carry back, but he has to have a 10 or more runs of more than 7 yards... many of which were closed holes that he bounced outside and then ran thru or eluded a defender.
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They sure seem to breed bright writers over there at CFB News
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Keys to the Big Games
[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif] Week Six, Oct. 15
Michigan State vs. Ohio State[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE][/FONT] By John Harris a. The same, but only better – Back in the 2004 Masters…yes, it’s golf, stay with it for a second, Phil Mickelson’s ball sat a few feet from the hole, but very near Chris DiMarco’s ball. So, as soon as DiMarco hit his putt, Mickelson walked behind DiMarco’s ‘roll’ to see how his putt was going to break. Using that information, Mickelson was able to knock down his tournament winning putt. Alright, so what does that have to do with this football game? Although Michael Robinson and Vince Young are a bit different than Drew Stanton, the Buckeye defense has seen dual threat QB this season and done a solid job stopping them. Take out the one play drive after the interception, and Ohio State essentially shut down Robinson and the Penn State offense. This week’s key is going to be not allowing Stanton time to throw. Stanton probably throws the ball better than both Young and Robinson, so the Buckeyes are going to have make an adjustment that they didn’t have to make or felt like they didn’t need to make against Young and Robinson. Against those two QBs, Ohio State’s LBs were screaming up to the LOS as soon as either one took off for the perimeter. But, with Stanton, he can throw the ball pretty well on the run, so it puts the linebackers in tough spot. The pressure then falls on the DE to not allow Stanton to escape contain, such that AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel can stay in their drop zones underneath the Spartan receivers. So, in the end, Stanton is similar, different and perhaps better (yes, all at the same time) than the QBs that Ohio State has already seen, but at least Ohio State has read the break, errr, has seen his like this season.
b. A Cat with Nine Lives – Want to start an argument real fast? Tell a Buckeye fan that the most valuable defender on their defense isn’t AJ Hawk, it’s Donte Whitner. Okay, are you on crack? Alright, alright maybe that’s up to subjective debate, but you can’t discount Whitner’s versatility and ability to be part of both the run defense and the pass defense and play each equally well. He’s fourth on the team in tackles, behind the three stud linebackers, and leads the team with two interceptions – that ability to play pass and run equally well, alongside Nate Salley is a key against this versatile of an offense, led by Stanton. But, what makes Whitner the ultimate X factor is that the Buckeyes can use him in nearly every scheme they have, which also includes using him as a blitzer coming off of the edge. Penn State was able to read Ohio State’s ‘two weak’ blitz and roll away from it, so the key for Ohio State is to perhaps ‘hide’ Whitner a little better and maybe bring him up in the B gaps, combined with the linebackers, to get free and chase Stanton all over Columbus. Either way, having Whitner in the secondary, along with Salley, gives the Buckeyes comfort that if Stanton does break contain or burst past the line of scrimmage, those two can take care of business and make a solid tackle. Furthermore, he reads well on short routes and is able to break on the ball quickly, so MSU has to be careful with its three step-quick game and know where #9 is aligned. Keep an eye on D. Whitner this week against the MSU offense.
c. A No-Fly Zone? – Granted, Ohio State doesn’t throw the ball around the yard with great success, although they’ve got the weapons to do it. This just might be that weekend that the Buckeyes put the ball in the air. The Spartans are giving up 286 yards per game through the air, getting torched by both Brady Quinn of Notre Dame and Chad Henne of Michigan. Now, Troy Smith isn’t in the same class as those other QB, but the MSU secondary has to play much better this week. The key may end up being what they do with strong safety Eric Smith and how they use him in the pass defense, depending on how Ohio State chooses to attack early in the football game. If they run early, Smith may creep up into the box and focus on the run, but if the Buckeyes are balanced, equal parts running and throwing, Smith is put in a tough spot. He’s probably needed more in pass defense, but if Smith and Antonio Pittman are picking up rushing yards as Mike Hart did against the Spartans, he and the coaching staff have a difficult decision to make. Smith’s commitment to the box is going to put even more pressure on the Spartans’ corners to be able to cover Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn. Last year, Ginn hurt them immensely, but this year, when the MSU corners have been matched up one-on-one, teams have had success against them. However, with two weeks to prepare, the secondary has had a chance to get healthy and make some adjustments to get ready for Ohio State.
Conclusion – Michigan State will throw three solid RB (four if you count Stanton) at Ohio State and there really hasn’t been a team that could do that against the Buckeyes. Texas could mix it up with Young and Charles, but that was it really. Penn State could and did mix in Derrick Williams, but Michigan State’s offensive line is better than Penn State’s and that could be an issue for Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes, when faced with a ‘man’s game’, in other words smashmouth football, they show up on defense. But, this MSU defense isn’t Penn State’s that for sure. QB Smith has to throw it better and perhaps more often, but that means he has to be protected. If he is, then Holmes can have a massive day against the Michigan State secondary. If not, then it could be 1998 all over again. But, this time, it’ll be different, more like 2004. Ohio State – 31 vs. Michigan State – 24
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Keys to the Big Games
[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif] Week Six, Oct. 15
Michigan State vs. Ohio State[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE][/FONT] By John Harris a. The same, but only better – Back in the 2004 Masters…yes, it’s golf, stay with it for a second, Phil Mickelson’s ball sat a few feet from the hole, but very near Chris DiMarco’s ball. So, as soon as DiMarco hit his putt, Mickelson walked behind DiMarco’s ‘roll’ to see how his putt was going to break. Using that information, Mickelson was able to knock down his tournament winning putt. Alright, so what does that have to do with this football game? Although Michael Robinson and Vince Young are a bit different than Drew Stanton, the Buckeye defense has seen dual threat QB this season and done a solid job stopping them. Take out the one play drive after the interception, and Ohio State essentially shut down Robinson and the Penn State offense. This week’s key is going to be not allowing Stanton time to throw. Stanton probably throws the ball better than both Young and Robinson, so the Buckeyes are going to have make an adjustment that they didn’t have to make or felt like they didn’t need to make against Young and Robinson. Against those two QBs, Ohio State’s LBs were screaming up to the LOS as soon as either one took off for the perimeter. But, with Stanton, he can throw the ball pretty well on the run, so it puts the linebackers in tough spot. The pressure then falls on the DE to not allow Stanton to escape contain, such that AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel can stay in their drop zones underneath the Spartan receivers. So, in the end, Stanton is similar, different and perhaps better (yes, all at the same time) than the QBs that Ohio State has already seen, but at least Ohio State has read the break, errr, has seen his like this season.
b. A Cat with Nine Lives – Want to start an argument real fast? Tell a Buckeye fan that the most valuable defender on their defense isn’t AJ Hawk, it’s Donte Whitner. Okay, are you on crack? Alright, alright maybe that’s up to subjective debate, but you can’t discount Whitner’s versatility and ability to be part of both the run defense and the pass defense and play each equally well. He’s fourth on the team in tackles, behind the three stud linebackers, and leads the team with two interceptions – that ability to play pass and run equally well, alongside Nate Salley is a key against this versatile of an offense, led by Stanton. But, what makes Whitner the ultimate X factor is that the Buckeyes can use him in nearly every scheme they have, which also includes using him as a blitzer coming off of the edge. Penn State was able to read Ohio State’s ‘two weak’ blitz and roll away from it, so the key for Ohio State is to perhaps ‘hide’ Whitner a little better and maybe bring him up in the B gaps, combined with the linebackers, to get free and chase Stanton all over Columbus. Either way, having Whitner in the secondary, along with Salley, gives the Buckeyes comfort that if Stanton does break contain or burst past the line of scrimmage, those two can take care of business and make a solid tackle. Furthermore, he reads well on short routes and is able to break on the ball quickly, so MSU has to be careful with its three step-quick game and know where #9 is aligned. Keep an eye on D. Whitner this week against the MSU offense.
c. A No-Fly Zone? – Granted, Ohio State doesn’t throw the ball around the yard with great success, although they’ve got the weapons to do it. This just might be that weekend that the Buckeyes put the ball in the air. The Spartans are giving up 286 yards per game through the air, getting torched by both Brady Quinn of Notre Dame and Chad Henne of Michigan. Now, Troy Smith isn’t in the same class as those other QB, but the MSU secondary has to play much better this week. The key may end up being what they do with strong safety Eric Smith and how they use him in the pass defense, depending on how Ohio State chooses to attack early in the football game. If they run early, Smith may creep up into the box and focus on the run, but if the Buckeyes are balanced, equal parts running and throwing, Smith is put in a tough spot. He’s probably needed more in pass defense, but if Smith and Antonio Pittman are picking up rushing yards as Mike Hart did against the Spartans, he and the coaching staff have a difficult decision to make. Smith’s commitment to the box is going to put even more pressure on the Spartans’ corners to be able to cover Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn. Last year, Ginn hurt them immensely, but this year, when the MSU corners have been matched up one-on-one, teams have had success against them. However, with two weeks to prepare, the secondary has had a chance to get healthy and make some adjustments to get ready for Ohio State.
Conclusion – Michigan State will throw three solid RB (four if you count Stanton) at Ohio State and there really hasn’t been a team that could do that against the Buckeyes. Texas could mix it up with Young and Charles, but that was it really. Penn State could and did mix in Derrick Williams, but Michigan State’s offensive line is better than Penn State’s and that could be an issue for Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes, when faced with a ‘man’s game’, in other words smashmouth football, they show up on defense. But, this MSU defense isn’t Penn State’s that for sure. QB Smith has to throw it better and perhaps more often, but that means he has to be protected. If he is, then Holmes can have a massive day against the Michigan State secondary. If not, then it could be 1998 all over again. But, this time, it’ll be different, more like 2004. Ohio State – 31 vs. Michigan State – 24
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buckeyeboy
Still fortitudinous
I agree. I don't know why everyone's so down on Pittman. I think he's shown a lot of heart this year and an ability to break tackles, something that our running game has been lacking in the past few years. I think he's performed very well for us this year, and when judged against our previous running backs since MoC, I think he's performed brilliantly.
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bassbuckeye07
Hall of Fame
Not to get off topic but MSU secondary coach Chuck Driesback offered an explanation of Ginn's sophomoer slump in the Dispatch. He believes that there has been more pressure on the quarter back this year. He said on film Ginn is getting open and beating his man but the QB has had to scramble to much because of pressure. At the games I have seen Ginn open but I have never felt untill last week that the QB has not generally had enough time to go through his progressions. Keep in mind this is not to rip TS I feel he is the QB. Just looking for some thoughts on the protection this year. Sorry if I should have posted this in the TG thread.
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DBB's weekly statistical breakdown
Last week I compared the PSU and OSU defenses, showing that OSU holds their opponents farther below their average output than PSU does. That held true in the game, as OSU held PSU 218.3 yards and 16.3 points under their averages, while PSU held our Buckeyes only 124.4 yards and 14.8 points under our averages. Unfortunately, our offensive averages are, shall we say, not good.
This week, I'll compare the offenses as well as the defenses. To keep this short, I'll use averages instead of breaking down every game. If people want to see a game by game breakdown, I'll edit later.
MSU BREAKDOWN:
MSU's Opponents:
Kent State::Hawaii::Notre Dame::Illinois::M*ch*g*n
These 5 teams taken together GIVE UP 414.1 yards and 29.5 points per game. That's horrible.
Michigan State averaged 566.4 yards and 45.5 points per game against them. Even against bad defenses, that's impressive.
MSU's 5 opponents taken together GAIN 403.34 yards and 26.14 points per game. Not as bad as their defenses, but not great.
Michigan State gave up 405.4 yards and 23.4 points per game to these teams. Against mediocre offenses, that's attrocious.
So MSU's break down is...
MSU OFFENSE GAINS
now for the...
OSU BREAKDOWN:
OSU's Opponents:
Miami U::Texas::SDSU::Iowa::PSU
These 5 teams taken together GIVE UP 332.88 yards and 19.72 points per game. That's much better than the defenses MSU has faced.
The Buckeyes averaged 354.4 yards and 24.8 points per game against them. Even against good defenses, that's disappointing.
OSU's 5 opponents taken together GAIN 418.64 yards and 32.82 points per game. Again, better than what MSU has faced, especially w.r.t. points.
Ohio State has given up only 238.2 yards and 13.6 points per game to these teams. Those numbers posted against good offenses, especially under circumstances which I shall not elaborate on, are freakin' phenomenal.
So the Buckeye break down is...
OSU OFFENSE GAINS
Things get much more interesting when you look at the other two ways of breaking the numbers down. Both of these methods are essentially an attempt to predict what each teams output in the head-head match-up is going to be.
The first of these is to compare each team's average offense to the other team's differential defense. The second breakdown compare's each team's average defense to the other team's differential offense.
Method 1: Take OSU's offensive output and subtract the amount that MSU holds their opponents below their averages. Then do the same for MSU's offense vs. OSU's defense and the result is the following:
OSU yards: 354.4 (avg O) + 2.06 (MSU D) = 356.46 Yards
OSU points: 24.8 (avg score) - 2.74 (MSU D) = 22.06 Points
MSU yards: 566.4 - 180.44 = 385.96 yards
MSU points: 45.4 - 19.22 = 26.18 points
Method 2: Take MSU's defensive average and add the amount that OSU gains beyond their opponents average defense. Then do the same for OSU's defense vs MSU's offense and the result is the following:
OSU yards: 405.4 (MSU D) + 21.52 (diff yards) = 426.92 Yards
OSU points: 23.4 (MSU D) + 5.08 (diff pts) = 28.48 Points
MSU yards: 238.2 + 152.3 = 390.5 yards
MSU points: 13.6 +15.9 = 29.5 points
UPSHOT:
Method 1 suggests that MSU would outgain us by about 30 yards and outscore us by about 4 points. Method 2 suggests that we would outgain them by about 35 yards but that MSU would win by about a point.
This does not mean I'm suggesting that MSU will win. While these numbers suggest that the game will be close, there are several objective factors to suggest that these numbers should be tweaked in Ohio State's favor, at least with respect to the expected outcome of tomorrow's game.
Before I offer my own opinion of what those factors are, I'd like to hear what others think...
Last week I compared the PSU and OSU defenses, showing that OSU holds their opponents farther below their average output than PSU does. That held true in the game, as OSU held PSU 218.3 yards and 16.3 points under their averages, while PSU held our Buckeyes only 124.4 yards and 14.8 points under our averages. Unfortunately, our offensive averages are, shall we say, not good.
This week, I'll compare the offenses as well as the defenses. To keep this short, I'll use averages instead of breaking down every game. If people want to see a game by game breakdown, I'll edit later.
MSU BREAKDOWN:
MSU's Opponents:
Kent State::Hawaii::Notre Dame::Illinois::M*ch*g*n
These 5 teams taken together GIVE UP 414.1 yards and 29.5 points per game. That's horrible.
Michigan State averaged 566.4 yards and 45.5 points per game against them. Even against bad defenses, that's impressive.
MSU's 5 opponents taken together GAIN 403.34 yards and 26.14 points per game. Not as bad as their defenses, but not great.
Michigan State gave up 405.4 yards and 23.4 points per game to these teams. Against mediocre offenses, that's attrocious.
So MSU's break down is...
MSU OFFENSE GAINS
- 152.3 yards more than opponents give up on average
- 15.9 points more than opponents give up on average
- 2.06 yards MORE than opponents gain on average
- 2.74 points fewer than opponents score on average
now for the...
OSU BREAKDOWN:
OSU's Opponents:
Miami U::Texas::SDSU::Iowa::PSU
These 5 teams taken together GIVE UP 332.88 yards and 19.72 points per game. That's much better than the defenses MSU has faced.
The Buckeyes averaged 354.4 yards and 24.8 points per game against them. Even against good defenses, that's disappointing.
OSU's 5 opponents taken together GAIN 418.64 yards and 32.82 points per game. Again, better than what MSU has faced, especially w.r.t. points.
Ohio State has given up only 238.2 yards and 13.6 points per game to these teams. Those numbers posted against good offenses, especially under circumstances which I shall not elaborate on, are freakin' phenomenal.
So the Buckeye break down is...
OSU OFFENSE GAINS
- 21.52 yards more than opponents give up on average
- 5.08 points more than opponents give up on average
- 180.44 yards fewer than opponents gain on average
- 19.22 points fewer than opponents score on average
Things get much more interesting when you look at the other two ways of breaking the numbers down. Both of these methods are essentially an attempt to predict what each teams output in the head-head match-up is going to be.
The first of these is to compare each team's average offense to the other team's differential defense. The second breakdown compare's each team's average defense to the other team's differential offense.
Method 1: Take OSU's offensive output and subtract the amount that MSU holds their opponents below their averages. Then do the same for MSU's offense vs. OSU's defense and the result is the following:
OSU yards: 354.4 (avg O) + 2.06 (MSU D) = 356.46 Yards
OSU points: 24.8 (avg score) - 2.74 (MSU D) = 22.06 Points
MSU yards: 566.4 - 180.44 = 385.96 yards
MSU points: 45.4 - 19.22 = 26.18 points
Method 2: Take MSU's defensive average and add the amount that OSU gains beyond their opponents average defense. Then do the same for OSU's defense vs MSU's offense and the result is the following:
OSU yards: 405.4 (MSU D) + 21.52 (diff yards) = 426.92 Yards
OSU points: 23.4 (MSU D) + 5.08 (diff pts) = 28.48 Points
MSU yards: 238.2 + 152.3 = 390.5 yards
MSU points: 13.6 +15.9 = 29.5 points
UPSHOT:
Method 1 suggests that MSU would outgain us by about 30 yards and outscore us by about 4 points. Method 2 suggests that we would outgain them by about 35 yards but that MSU would win by about a point.
This does not mean I'm suggesting that MSU will win. While these numbers suggest that the game will be close, there are several objective factors to suggest that these numbers should be tweaked in Ohio State's favor, at least with respect to the expected outcome of tomorrow's game.
Before I offer my own opinion of what those factors are, I'd like to hear what others think...
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SanAntonioBuck
RIP Our Friend and Hero
scUM lite will get smacked down tomorrow. Stanton has to pass to beat us!
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Zurp
I have misplaced my pants.
I really don't think that Michigan State will be able to stop Ohio State's offense. I know it's no high-power offense, but 4+ yards a carry by Pittman and Smith every time (which I believe is possible in this game), and the Bucks march right down the field, and at least get the field goal (amidst a chorus of boos, I'm very sorry to say), but often the touchdown. Michigan State also march down the field, but in far fewer plays (more yards per play), but will be held to long field goal attempts.
The Bucks' defense will make Stanton wish he'd tried to carry a weapon into the stadium and security had caught him doing so, because playing in that game will not be fun for him. Drew Tate will email him at his first opportunity (is Iowa at home this week?) and see if they can start a club called "Quarterbacks named 'Drew' who had our roughest games ever in Ohio Stadium." Chad Henne will apply to join the club, but will be denied because no one likes Michigan.
My prediction: Michigan Sucks.
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I believe they do and will respond!
Pheasant
This space for rent.
I agree with the smackdown part, but how is Stanton having to pass to beat us a good thing? He's the highest rated passer in the country, and our pass defense is weaker than our run defense.
On the bright side, MSU's pass defense is about as good as Findlay High School's. Their run defense is a little better, probably MAC level.
Still 42-24
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Pittman getting 4 ypg would be a letdown from this season. I really don't get what games people have been watching or what stat sheets they have been reading, but this is the reality after playing 60% of the season against tough defenses.
5 ypg for Pittman. 4 ypg for Smith. Our running game is NOT the problem.
Pittman, Antonio 5 92 477 15 462 5.0 0 29 92.4
Smith, Troy 4 64 319 63 256 4.0 5 28 64.0
5 ypg for Pittman. 4 ypg for Smith. Our running game is NOT the problem.
Pittman, Antonio 5 92 477 15 462 5.0 0 29 92.4
Smith, Troy 4 64 319 63 256 4.0 5 28 64.0
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bukIpower
Head Coach
we're going to blow out Michigan State? wow....
We struggled with MSU last year and they had Damion Dowdell as their QB? I don't know if we're giving Michigan State enough credit. Given how we struggle against decent big ten teams, and how we haven't been capable or generating offense for some time now you have to atleast think this'll be a good game. Now yea we beat Iowa but their lines were horrible, they had no running game, and it was easy to contain Tate.
What seperates Michigan State and Iowa is Michigan State does many screens and draws and things of that sort to slow down speedy defenses so I expect MSU to have alittle more success than Iowa.
We struggled with MSU last year and they had Damion Dowdell as their QB? I don't know if we're giving Michigan State enough credit. Given how we struggle against decent big ten teams, and how we haven't been capable or generating offense for some time now you have to atleast think this'll be a good game. Now yea we beat Iowa but their lines were horrible, they had no running game, and it was easy to contain Tate.
What seperates Michigan State and Iowa is Michigan State does many screens and draws and things of that sort to slow down speedy defenses so I expect MSU to have alittle more success than Iowa.
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