G-F, I think we hear what you are saying but, respectfully, Wolfe has put up those yards against a very different kind of defense than Ohio State. I think it's great that you have a lot of faith in Wolfe and your team but I think you are really deluding yourself if you think Ohio State's defense will drop off as much as you seem to suggest.
I see this game from a very different viewpoint. I think that Wolfe may be the third best back on the field in this game if Beanie Wells meets our expectations, which are admittedly very high and maybe unrealistic.
Let's compare what Pittman and Wolfe achieved against common opponents last year.
Wolfe got more yards against all three opponents, but he also had far more carries. Pittman actually had more yards per carry in every game, except TSUN. It's hard to call TSUN a common opponent. TSUN and Ohio State play above themselves in The Game. Also, there is the timing in the season (your first vs our last game). Still, there really isn't much difference between Pittman and Wolfe, if you remove the 76 yard touchdown run at the beginning of the second quarter against a very green TSUN defense.
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<O:p
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Pittman
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Wolfe
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Game </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 193.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=258 colSpan=3>
Yds/Att/Avg
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Yds/Att/Avg
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Miami (Ohio)</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 83.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=111>
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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 30.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=41>
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Northwestern</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 83.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top width=111>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 67.05pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top width=89>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 42.9pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top width=57>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 83.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top width=111>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 30.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top width=41>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 45.7pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c8e0d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top width=61>
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TSUN</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 83.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=111>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 67.05pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=89>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 42.9pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=57>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 83.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=111>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 30.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=41>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c8e0d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #c8e0d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #c8e0d8; WIDTH: 45.7pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=61>
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(Without touchdown run, Wolfe gets 72 yards on 16 carries for 4.5 yards a carry)
There is something that should cause you more concern.
If you dig a bit, you'll discover that Pittman rises to the competition from opposing backs. He is best when he is trying to outshine opposing backs who are getting more attention.
Pittman also plays well in the clutch.
When you needed Wolfe to step up against Michigan, at the end of the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, Wolfe got three yards on five carries (-1 1 0 1 1 ) and no score.
When we needed Pittman to put his hand up, at that same point in the game, he got 26 yards on seven carries (3 6 5 4 2 2 4)
and the game winning touchdown, during which he ran over two Ohio turncoats to bust into the end zone.
Even if your team is improved, it played only two teams inside the top 40 of the power ratings and lost to them both. Your one game against a #20 power rating team (TSUN) was a blow out loss.
Now, if you still fancy your chances for a close game, compare the two defenses:
<TABLE class=bgBdr cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bgC align=right><TD></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Points/Game</TD><TD class=bgHigh>14.8 (11)</TD><TD>22.8 (78)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+11;statsId2=statsId2+78;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Rush Yards/Game</TD><TD class=bgHigh>74.5 (2)</TD><TD>146.2 (106)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+2;statsId2=statsId2+106;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Pass Yards/Game</TD><TD class=bgHigh>200.8 (104)</TD><TD>222.6 (169)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+104;statsId2=statsId2+169;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Total Yards/Game</TD><TD class=bgHigh>275.3 (11)</TD><TD>368.8 (127)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+11;statsId2=statsId2+127;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Third Down Pct.</TD><TD class=bgHigh>28.5% (6)</TD><TD>39.9% (151)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+6;statsId2=statsId2+151;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Fourth Down Pct.</TD><TD class=bgHigh>38.5% (59)</TD><TD>42.9% (96)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+59;statsId2=statsId2+96;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Sacks</TD><TD class=bgHigh>39 (9)</TD><TD>26 (87)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+9;statsId2=statsId2+87;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Sack Yards</TD><TD class=bgHigh>-250 (14)</TD><TD>-186 (71)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+14;statsId2=statsId2+71;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Rushing TDs</TD><TD class=bgHigh>9 (20)</TD><TD>13 (63)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+20;statsId2=statsId2+63;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Passing TDs</TD><TD class=bgHigh>8 (11)</TD><TD>19 (172)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+11;statsId2=statsId2+172;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Carries/Game</TD><TD class=bgHigh>347 (6)</TD><TD>456 (165)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+6;statsId2=statsId2+165;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Yards/Carry</TD><TD class=bgHigh>2.4 (2)</TD><TD>3.8 (98)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+2;statsId2=statsId2+98;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Completion Pct.</TD><TD>60.3% (186)</TD><TD class=bgHigh>57.3% (128)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+186;statsId2=statsId2+128;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Yards/Pass Attempt</TD><TD>6.1 (39)</TD><TD class=bgHigh>6.0 (26)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+39;statsId2=statsId2+26;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR><TR class=bgC align=right><TD align=left>Pass Rating</TD><TD class=bgHigh>115.8 (76)</TD><TD>116.9 (81)<SCRIPT>statsId1=statsId1+76;statsId2=statsId2+81;</SCRIPT> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I know you will argue that these stats were achieved by Hawk and the other departing guys, and that would be true, but a lot of the guys playing this year got substantial playing time last year due to injuries to the 1's and also to other issues. So, this defense is not as green as some folks make out.
Wolfe is an impressive runner but he impresses against far inferior opponents (Sagarin SOS #97) to the kind that Antonio Pittman has run against (Sagarin SOS #2).
And even with such a great runner and so much softer a schedule, you still only rushed for ten yards more a game than Ohio State did. More worrying for you, NI gave up more than twice as many yards on rushing (1754 vs 819 for Ohio State).
Wolfe may do very well on the day. However, chances are that he will find Ohio State's run defense harder than any he faced last year despite the newer faces.
Furthermore, he may well be vastly outshined by Antonio Pittman on the day.
Tressel will want to see the 1's go through their routine and get the kinks out. He will want to score early and often and dominate on the offensive side of the ball especially. Still, I don't think we will see the blowout that might have been because Tressel will be holding back for the following game.
This one is not even going to be close, 35-10 is a very real possibility.