DBB's Weekly Statistical Breakdown: Extra Edition for The Game
Any time you post stats during This Week, you have to start by defending stats during This Week.
As I've said elsewhere, during the Tressel Era; scUM has had a chance only when they were vastly superior statistically. When OSU is vastly superior on paper...
Wait a minute, that's never happened before! This is the FIRST time in the Tressel Era when OSU takes the field as the statistically superior team by a wide margin.
I was curious as to HOW dominant the Buckeyes are in this match-up. Folks, it goes way beyond offensive and defensive rankings. The Bucks are much more dominant than a glance at that stat page in the paper can tell you. When you really break-it-down, this should be a beat-down.
To really breakdown a team's effectiveness, you have to look at yards per play. To get to the heart of the matter, you need to separate rushing and passing. To make sure that I'm measuring apples-to-apples, this comparison will use conference-games-only numbers.
To that end, what follows is a comparison of the two teams' in-conference rushing and passing offense and defense. The tables shows the raw Yards/Attempt and Yards/Carry as well as the differential YPA - YPC. Recall that differential numbers are a measure of how much more you gain than opponents give up on average, and how much less you give up than opponents gain on average.
OFFENSE
________________RUSHING_______________PASSING____
______________YPC____Diff. YPC________YPA____Diff. YPA
OHIO STATE___4.79_____+0.29_________10.37_____+3.05_
TSUN_________4.08_____-0.48__________6.63_____-0.46_
DEFENSE
________________RUSHING_______________PASSING_____
______________YPC____Diff. YPC________YPA____Diff. YPA_
OHIO STATE___2.60_____-2.00__________5.70_____-1.18__
TSUN_________4.07_____-0.34__________6.59_____-0.76__
In case you're wondering:
- Yes, all of OSU's numbers shown here are the best in the Big-10 in their respective categories.
- No, OSU's differential YPA (pass offense) is not a typo.
If we use the averages and the other teams' differentials, we can provide a prediction for the YPC-YPA expected for Saturday's Game. The predictions provided by the various methods give a surprisingly narrow range of expected outcomes.
Expected Offensive Efficiency
_______________Rushing_________Passing___
______________YPC_Range_______YPA_Range_
OHIO STATE____4.35-4.44________9.61-9.64__
TSUN__________2.08-2.13________5.24-5.44__
Um, right. Those numbers are indicative of a beating. A very bad beating.
Yes, yes, I know that in This Game the numbers don't mean anything. I know that in years past, OSU was this dominant and more and still lost.
I know that some among you who have my utmost respect are fearful of another spate of road-turnovers.
But do you really think that a
TRESSEL TEAM this dominant will choke as badly as it would need to choke to lose in THIS GAME? Really?
For my part, I really don't think so. Buckeyes 31-13.