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Game Thread Game Eleven: Ohio state 25, Michigan 21 (final)

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my thoughts...henne blows and was only good last year because of BE...the combination of Hart and Grady at RB does scare me a little bit...they are both great runners...i have no doubt that we will keep them in tact but they will make things interesting... Mario is going to be very good for them in the next couple of years and i can see him making a big catch or two in this game...also their big DT is finally starting to play up to his potential...with that said my prediction is 41-24...we will still beat them but those players i mentioned will keep things interesting...just something to keep your eyes on
GO BUCKS!!!
 
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Cleveland PD

11/14

Weekly Wolverine Watch



Monday, November 14, 2005

The idea that Michigan could wind up in a BCS bowl is hard to believe.
Let's review what the Wolverines were saying after a home defeat to Minnesota on Oct. 8 lost the Little Brown Jug and dropped them to 3-3.
"This wasn't just for the Jug," said linebacker LaMarr Woodley, "it was for the Big Ten Championship. It's not a good feeling losing like this, and it hurts to lose early. We have to play for our pride now. A lot of people lost faith in us, and we have to win them back."
After that loss, the Wolverines were 1-2 in the conference, good for ninth place, ahead of only Purdue and Illinois. Four wins later, Michigan actually has a chance to tie for the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Penn State and advance to a BCS bowl by virtue of wins over the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.
All they need is a win over Ohio State on Saturday and a Penn State loss. That's a long way from ninth place.
"I think [the players] proved what they are made of," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said after Saturday's 41-14 win over Indiana. "They have strong fiber and they fought back. There is no question that their road was a real, real hard one because of the hole we put ourselves in early. We have beat some very good football teams and have come together as a football team. We're excited because we have made a run, we have some momentum and we get to play at home. Now, we have to put together a good game plan and come out with our best game of the year."
Even Ohio State fans should be able to appreciate that. Thanks to Michigan's rebound and the Buckeyes holding the fort after early losses to Texas and Penn State, the Big Game is exactly what it should be - big.
Countdown to The Big Game: 5 days.
 
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DDN

11/14

Win at Michigan key for major bowl

Victory in Ann Arbor could give Buckeyes automatic BCS bid

By Doug Harris
Dayton Daily News
COLUMBUS — With one week to go in the regular season and conference championships left to be played, Orange Bowl rep Rick Mello couldn't be coaxed into speculating about potential postseason scenarios.
<!--endtext-->
But he did walk away from Ohio State's 48-7 thrashing of Northwestern on Saturday with an ideal candidate for that Jan. 3 game in mind.
<!-- inset --> <!--begintext--> "Anyone looking out at that stadium and seeing 105,000 fans would have to think about Ohio State," he said.
But the ninth-ranked Buckeyes will have to win at Michigan on Saturday to even entertain thoughts of going to a major bowl, and trips to Ann Arbor in the past have often been season-wreckers.
Ohio State (8-2) is tied with Penn State (9-1) for first place in the Big Ten at 6-1, while Michigan (7-3) is alone in third at 5-2.
If Penn State loses at Michigan State (5-5) on Saturday, the winner of the OSU-Michigan game would earn the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid.
Even with a loss, the Buckeyes almost certainly would drop no further than the Jan. 1 Outback Bowl. But the players were too focused on the Wolverines to discuss postseason destinations.
"The big thing is this game isn't for a Big Ten championship or a BCS (bowl)," senior linebacker Bobby Carpenter said. "It's the Ohio State-Michigan game. That's big in and of itself. Last year, we realized that. That's why we won the game."
Although they hammered the Wolverines, 37-21, in Columbus in 2004 and have won three of the last four meetings, the Buckeyes are just 1-7 in Ann Arbor since 1989. And the defeats almost always came with painful repercussions.
The Buckeyes missed out on a chance to return to the national title game in 2003 after falling, 35-21. The loss also cost them a share of the Big Ten championship.
They could have won an outright Big Ten title in 1993 and pieces of the crown in '95 and '97, but fell short of their goal each time.
Carpenter was in uniform for the '03 defeat, and he believes complacency was the culprit then.
"It's not that we overlooked them, but we were so confident," he said. "I remember talking to (former defensive coordinator Mark) Dantonio last summer. We all had the sense that we had those guys figured out.
"Now we realize the error of our ways. That's the toughest place to play in America — there and Penn State. It's a horrible environment. They've got talented players and they're coming together at the right time. They're dangerous."
Quarterback Troy Smith, a fourth-year junior, didn't gain an appreciation for the impact of the Michigan game until getting cracked by one of those winged helmets last season.
"As a youngster, I sort of took the rivalry for granted," he said, "but as soon as I took my first hit in the game, I understood what it was all about.
"Every yard is gold. One yard is worth two, two is worth four, and it goes on and on. That game is probably the highest skilled game of the year, regardless of whoever else we face."
Sophomore receiver Anthony Gonzalez is certain the players will take the same approach that served them so well last season.
"We were pretty focused," Gonzalez said, "and this year, I expect nothing less.
"It's Michigan for the Big Ten title. What more could you want?"
 
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ozone

11/14/05

The Game - The In-Crowd Gets It
By John Porentas
If you are reading this column, and you have some connection to either the state of Ohio or the state of Michigan, you are a member of an elite class this week. You get it.

Sorry if you are from Kansas, Idaho, Arkansas, New York, Tennessee, or from anywhere else except Ohio or Michigan, because you just don't understand. This is the week of weeks. This is the week of The Game.

ESPN, that bastion of sports savvy, doesn't have a clue. They ran a graphic last weekend illustrating the importance of the outcome of The Game this year. It illustrated the BCS implications and the Big Ten championship implications of the outcome of The Game. Most of the nation enjoyed that graphic. The people of Ohio and Michigan just laughed.

The Game is bigger than the BCS implications, bigger than the Big Ten championship implications. It is, quite simply, The Game, and unless you have a vested interest, unless you have a connection to Ohio or Michigan, you don't understand that The Game is all that matters, and that everything else, EVERYTHING else, is secondary. What matters is The Game.

"This the Ohio State vs. Michigan game," said OSU linebacker Bobby Carpenter.

If you have that Ohio or Michigan connection, that's all you need to know. For the rest of you, Carpenter tried to explain.

"This isn't about the BCS Bowl, this isn't about a Big Ten title, it's about I don't care if we're 0-10 going into this game and it's our first win, that would be enough for us," said Carpenter.

For those of you who are not insiders, lets clarify that. 1-10 is an adequate record, according to Carpenter, as long is as the "1" is in The Game. Those of you from Ohio or Michigan get that . If you are one of those who still don't get it, Carpenter explained further.

"Like Coach (former OSU Head Coach Earle) Bruce says, you win that Michigan game you go walk down High street with your head held high. If you lose it, you've got to walk the back alley," said Carpenter describing the fervor for The Game in Columbus.

The Game makes or breaks a season, and every year, one team has a season made, and one team has a season broken. If you're not from Ohio or Michigan, it sounds profoundly insane, like a ridiculous obsession. Should a single game define a season, a career? If you're not part of the in-crowd, not from Ohio or Michigan, it makes no sense. For Buckeyes and Wolverines alike, however, it is simply the natural order of things.

"I really wouldn't have it any other way at this point," said Carpenter.
"It's something you look forward to every year. You play all your other games hard but most all those games are just to get to this game because your career is remembered by how well you played against them (Michigan). That's something everyone remembers.

"If you make a big play in the Ohio State vs. Michigan game and you win the game, that's what you're remembered by. I remember Shawn Springs' slip. That's something that I'll always remember and I wasn't even at the game, I just watched it on T.V. That's how you're defined, by this game," said Carpenter.

"This game means everything," said the hero of last year's meeting, OSU quarterback Troy Smith.

"As a youngster I kind of took the rivalry for granted, but as soon as I took my first hit in The Game, I understood what it was all about. This is a huge one. Anytime you face that team up north, you've got to come out with a win," Smith said.

The Game can salvage a season or create a legend. The Buckeyes entered The Game with four losses last year, a number that, in Ohio, marked them as below average. When The Game ended, they were, in Ohio, a great team. They had won The Game. This year it is Michigan who can save a season that has thus far been less-successful than had been expected.

The Wolverines are staging a late-season rally, and could yet call this season a good one if they win The Game.

"That's the kind of the attitude we had last year. That's why we won that game," said Carpenter.

"This year they're kind of in that situation we were in last year, where they're coming together at the end. This would be a great feather in their cap with a win so it's going to be a dog fight up there. We're just going to focus on the task at hand," Carpenter said.

On the surface, that would seem to give the Wolverines an edge in The Game this season.

"We know that they're going to remember that and they're going to be ready for The Game," said linebacker A. J. Hawk.

OSU linebacker Anthony Schlegel, a Texas import who has learned the importance of The Game by association, said the Buckeyes have a recent memory of The Game that they too will draw on, the memory of their last trip to Ann Arbor and a loss to the Wolverines that marred a season of great promise.

"I just think that everyone knows what's at stake. It's really about the Ohio State vs. Michigan Game," said Schlegel.

"We know what happened when we went up there two years ago and they know what happened last year in the game here. I think both teams will be preparing extra hard and practicing extra hard to get ready for the type of game it's going to be. It's going to be a physical, tough game."

The Game. It's huge. It's important, and if you're one of the lucky ones, a person from Ohio or Michigan who gets it, you are a lucky soul. If you understand it, nothing compares to The Game.
Click to expand...
 
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DBB's Weekly Statistical Breakdown

It's time for my weekly comparison of how the Bucks and their opponent are performing relative to their opponents' averages. Now that we have 10 games to use for comparison, this gives us a good indication of the relative strength of the teams.

Based on your feedback, I'll continue to focus on differential output with head-head figured out. In other words, factor the game against you OUT of your opponents' averages, and how did you do compared to THAT?


For comparison purposes, I'll also post the numbers that include the head-head matchups.

scUM OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES
  • 2.82 yards fewer than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
  • 3.99 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
and,
  • 3.84 yards fewer than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out):: 23.11 fewer vs. non-MAC opponents YIKES
  • 4.42 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out):: 0.59 more vs. non-MAC opponents
Weasel DEFENSE GIVES UP
  • 95.63 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored in)
  • 12.84 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored in)
and,
  • 105.04 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored out)
  • 14.24 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored out)
.................................................. ..................................

OSU OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES
  • 16.00 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
  • 7.60 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
and,
  • 17.60 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)
  • 8.42 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)
OSU DEFENSE GIVES UP
  • 161.13 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored in)
  • 17.58 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored in)
but,
  • 179.08 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored out)
  • 19.52 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored out)
.................................................. ..................................................

Things to note when comparing the offenses:
  • As mediocre as scUM's offensive numbers are, against real competition they're worse. They gain 23.11 yards per game FEWER than their non-MAC opponents give up on average. Yikes.
  • Tressel-Ball skews these numbers, making OSU's offense look less powerful (by this metric) than it really is.
To wit:

OSU worst offensive performance by yardage differential was against Northwestern. Think about that for a minute. We ran the ball down their throat all day long. We dominated like nobody's business. And we gained 80.83 yards fewer than they were giving up on average.

If Tressel cared about yards rather than about holding the ball and shortening the game, he could have pasted NW with nearly a thousand.

The point here is that the difference between OSU and tsun is even bigger than this analysis seems to show.
.................................................. ...............................................

Opponents' Offense (head-head factored out)
  • OSU's opponents-to-date average 60.78 yards and 4.12 points more than scUM. (scUM is not as good as OSU's average opponent)
  • scUM's opponents-to-date average 42.34 yards more than OSU, but 0.36 points LESS than OSU. (OSU scores more than scUM's average opponent)
  • ADVANTAGE OSU
Opponents' Defense (head-head factored out)
  • OSU's opponents-to-date give up 45.10 yards and 6.18 points more than scUM gives up. (scUM is better than OSU's average opponent)
  • scUM's opponents-to-date give up 122.14 yards and 10.98 points more than OSU gives up. (OSU is MUCH better than scUM's average opponent)
  • ADVANTAGE OSU
.................................................. ...............................................


Now let's use these numbers to attempt a comparison.

Recall that Method 1 takes each team's Defensive average and adds the other team's differential offense. Method 2 takes each team's Offensive average and subtracts the other team's differential defense.

Method 1:

Wolverweenie yards: 277.30 (avg OSU D) - 3.84 (Weasel O) = 273.46 Yards
Wolverweenie points: 14.20 (avg OSU D) + 4.42 (Weasel O) = 18.62 Points

OSU yards: 340.60 + 17.60 = 358.20 yards
OSU points: 18.70 + 8.42 = 27.12 points

OSU Wins: 27-19 (358 yards to 273)

Method 2:

OSU yards: 403.30 (avg O) - 105.04 (scUM D) = 298.26 Yards
OSU points: 33.30 (avg score) - 14.24 (scUM D) = 19.06 Points

Weasel yards: 395.60 - 179.08 = 216.52 yards
Weasel points: 29.60 - 19.52 = 10.08 points

OSU Wins: 19-10 (298 yards to 217)



When you factor in the Tressel-Ball effect on these numbers, and the corresponding "Tressel Effect" on THE GAME; this figures to be less close than either method suggests.


Also, the media's impression not withstanding, OSU has improved more on offense than scUM has.


Buckeyes: 31-13
 
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I agreed to come up with a PC design for a sheet cake that my husband could take to work later this week. I really like this one! How can anyone find anything wrong with this? GO BUCKS !
 

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Last year, after Michigan took the 14-7 lead, they had only one offensive play available: the deep pass to Edwards (which also was defended very nicely by the defensive backs). Ohio State took the rest of the game away from Michigan. Smith looked good - REALLY good, and Michigan couldn't stop him. He passed almost flawlessly, finding open receivers, scrambling to buy time, scrambling for yards. He was phenomenal. And with the defense basically shutting down Michigan's offense, it all adds up to a blow-out.

This year, I think that Ohio State's defense is better than it was last year, the offense is better than it was last year, Michigan's defense is worse than it was last year, and their offense is worse than it was last year. Play "The Game" in Ohio Stadium this year, and I think the 37-21 game becomes 45-13. But it is "The Game," and it is The Shit House. Ohio State should be able to score 30+ and keep Michigan below 20. But just the fact that it is "The Game" scares me. Maybe I'm not recovered from Cooper, yet. We say that Tressel is 3-1 against Michigan, which, of course, is correct. But it's also true that the home team is 3-1 the past 4 years.

I think that Tressel keeps the team pumped up, not falling into Cooper's trap of making this "just another game." But he also keeps his players focused, playing with discipline and not sheer emotion. Ohio State 33 - Michigan 17.
 
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Interesting (but useless) tidbits of information:
tOSU is #3 in the country in sacks per game at 3.8
scum is tied for #68 (with the likes of Ohio, Temple and BYU) at 2.0

tOSU is t29 (with PSU) in TFL/game at 7.1
scUM is t57 (Cal, WSU, UNLV) tfl/game at 6.3

scUM is giving up 2.0 yards more per punt return than tOSU, while tOSU is gaining 1.11 more yards per return.

scUM has gained 19 turnovers, while tOSU has gained only 12- good for a 108th place tie :(
scUM has lost 15, tOSU has lost 17.

tOSU is #5 in 3rd down conversion defense at 27.6%
scUM is #42 at 35.7%

tOSU is #11 in 3rd down conversion offense at 47.7%
scum is #28 at 43%

scUM is #2 in penalty yards per game (31.3) and #1 in penalties per game (3.9)
tOSU is #22 in ypg(47.5) and t14 in penalties per game (5.3).
 
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