NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Will it be Michigan or Florida vs. Buckeyes?
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Tim May
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
There hasn?t been a question for a while about who?s No. 1 this college football season. Everybody knows it?s Ohio State.
But who?s No. 2? Who is Ohio State going to play in the national championship game Jan. 8?
Well, brace yourself. The answer ? a first-ever rematch with Michigan (11-1) or a first-ever matchup with Florida (12-1) ? will be determined by the poll voters and the computer algorithms today and revealed tonight.
We know for sure OSU?s opponent won?t be Southern California. The No. 2 Trojans were upset by cross-town rival UCLA in what was a wild final 12 hours yesterday of a chaotic regular season.
No. 3 Michigan, which fell 42-39 at Ohio State on Nov. 18 but thinks it still has the credentials for the title game, then watched along with Ohio State as Florida outscored Arkansas 38-28 in a frenetic Southeastern Conference championship game.
Now it?s up to Bowl Championship Series formula to decide who will meet Ohio State in Glendale, Ariz. In that formula, the USA Today poll of the coaches counts one-third, the Harris Interactive poll of media, former players and administrators counts one-third, and the average of the six computer rankings (with the high and the low dropped) counts one-third.
Last week, the computers liked Michigan more than Florida, with the Wolverines having an overall average of third while the Gators were fourth. The two polls also liked Michigan more. The Wolverines were No. 3 in both and the Gators were fourth.
But how much will the exit of Southern California change all of that? How much of the poll support USC enjoyed now will swing to Michigan or to Florida? And how much boost will Florida get in the computer ratings after beating Arkansas, which was 10-2 going into last night?
While the computers are cold-blooded, numberscrunching machines, the human polls are more reactionary and subjective.
In other words, do the poll voters want to see Ohio State and Michigan, which have played 103 times in the regular season, play for the first time in a bowl, and for the first time back-to-back? Do they think they can re-create what was billed as "the game of the century" 51 days later?
Or do they think Michigan has had its shot at No. 1? Do they think Florida, after winning the tough SEC and despite a 27-17 loss at Auburn in midseason, deserves the chance? Do they think a first meeting between OSU and Florida would be more compelling?
If they demand a rematch between two teams who just played in the regular season, well, it has happened before, but with an asterisk.
In 1996, No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Florida State met in the regular-season finale. Florida State won 24-21 to grab No. 1 headed into the bowls.
But that was two years before the formation of the BCS. The Big Ten, Pacific 10 and Rose Bowl were not part of the alliance at that time.
So when No. 4 Ohio State, which had fallen out of the race for the championship with a 13-9 loss to Michigan, was pitted against No. 2 Arizona State, the Pac-10 champ, in the Rose Bowl, the alliance did the best thing it could. It put Florida, which had fallen only to No. 3 in the polls, against No. 1 FSU in the Sugar Bowl for a rematch.
The Gators devoured the Seminoles 52-20. And after OSU beat Arizona State, Florida was awarded its first and only national championship.
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