Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

[Taosman]

In another week or two(testing) we should have a better handle on statistics for how many are sick and how many will die. Until then it's all just guess work.

It's snowing right now at 7 am! It won't stay for very long but it's some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen!
Yesterday one of my neighbors(retired doctor) came out for a(socially distant) talk. We shared Senior Shopping in town secrets and had a few big laughs. It made all of us feel better.
I suggest you get out for a local walk and have a "socially distant" safe talk with some neighbors.

 

[kujirakira]

70,000 out of 330,000,000. Sorry, but I don't care if half the country gets it and a couple hundred thousand kick it (yes, even if it includes your truly). That's light-years better than a second Great Depression.

Death rate is 1-1.5% when hospitals can treat everyone.
When they cant, its climbed as high as 5% and ... in your scenario... fair to say higher still than that. Because there arent enough respirators in the world.
1% of half of America is 1.65 million people.
5% of half of America is 8.25 million people.
Also causes permanent lung damage in many who survive.

Regarding the ecomic collapse... it's been coming anyway. Laffer curve econ doesnt work. Never has, never will.

Edit - tripped on phone calculator

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Liquor stores have been designated as essential businesses in the Illinois lockdown. And Dat's Da Chicago Way.

 

[kujirakira]

In another week or two(testing) we should have a better handle on statistics for how many are sick and how many will die. Until then it's all just guess work.

It's snowing right now at 7 am! It won't stay for very long but it's some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen!

The numbers are known.
Takes avg of 20days to die for those who do.
Doubles every 5 days.
Most hospitalizations start 5-10 days.
1-1.5% death rate.
A lot of graphs out there tracking the 'lag' in response time to different measures.

So if you recorded 1 death today, and no other testing. Safe to say 20 days ago, ~100 people had it... currently ~800 people have it. And in 3 weeks, there will be 8 deaths.
Doesnt sound so bad at the start, right?
And that's where all these nonSTEM types are like 'whats the big deal' and you end up like Italy rather than Japan.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Yes, but if you look at NYC, their hospitals are nearing capacity. Our estimates here are that the peak in Ohio will be in about 40-50 days...so that puts it in mid-May.

I guess what I am saying is, just because people aren’t dying near you yet, doesn’t mean they won’t, and I really hope they don’t. But this isn’t going away anytime soon. And it will get everywhere...the question is how badly.

I agree with you on the exponential math of the COVI deaths. I think your second post covered my point which is, as macabre as it would have been, I don't believe the cost/benefit of this was done well at all.

IMO, politicians had no stomach for deaths that could be blamed on them and therefore went straight to the economic nuclear winter option with, in typical sort term politician thinking, no regard to long term impact of that option.

 

[kujirakira]

I agree with you on the exponential math of the COVI deaths. I think your second post covered my point which is, as macabre as it would have been, I don't believe the cost/benefit of this was done well at all.

IMO, politicians had no stomach for deaths that could be blamed on them and therefore went straight to the economic nuclear winter option with, in typical sort term politician thinking, no regard to long term impact of that option.

In a vacuum, you may have a point.
But it's not an election year worldwide.
Everyone looking at this same as Chinese govt in December... 'we can muddle through this somehow'.
We cant institute the Authoritarian controls they did overnight in late January.
Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong figured this out super early.
Turns out, we werent even screening at airports. If you didnt stop this at the airport... you didnt stop it. As Seattle has discovered.
South Korea figured it out later, but with enough time.
Looks like all of Western Europe and US are not going to.
I agree that the 'state of emergency' etc isnt necessary... closing schools nationwide isnt necessary... but only if people took it very seriously.
As we can see at the Florida beeches and bars across US... that is not the case.
Some people, you just cant reach. So you get what we have here. Which is the way they want it. Well, they get it.

What our politicians really care about is how they can personally profit off of this while avoiding death.
That's abundantly clear.

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

In a vacuum, you may have a point.
But it's not an election year worldwide.
Everyone looking at this same as Chinese govt in December... 'we can muddle through this somehow'.
We cant institute the Authoritarian controls they did overnight in late January.
Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong figured this out super early.
Turns out, we werent even screening at airports. If you didnt stop this at the airport... you didnt stop it. As Seattle has discovered.
South Korea figured it out later, but with enough time.
Looks like all of Western Europe and US are not going to.
I agree that the 'state of emergency' etc isnt necessary... closing schools nationwide isnt necessary... but only if people took it very seriously.
As we can see at the Florida beeches and bars across US... that is not the case.
Some people, you just cant reach. So you get what we have here. Which is the way they want it. Well, they get it.

What our politicians really care about is how they can personally profit off of this while avoiding death.
That's abundantly clear.

I posted this in the poli thread, and since it's not overtly partisan think it's OK to repost here.

I saw a guy at least 70 and maybe close to 80 get out of a 7 series BMW and head into the liquor store yesterday. This guy is not destitute, and he lives in a neighborhood where he can literally have ANYTHING delivered to his door in hours. And, he was in failing health too--had to struggle to get out of the damned car. Now, I am past giving a single fuck about what might happen to this stupid, arrogant old man. He dies; he dies. What I do care about is that this old fuck might end up hogging an ICU bed and ventilator for five or six days before he inevitably kacks out thus depriving someone who didn't bring this thing on themselves of that ICU bed and ventilator.

 

[sparcboxbuck]

The numbers are known.
Takes avg of 20days to die for those who do.
Doubles every 5 days.
Most hospitalizations start 5-10 days.
1-1.5% death rate.
A lot of graphs out there tracking the 'lag' in response time to different measures.

So if you recorded 1 death today, and no other testing. Safe to say 20 days ago, ~100 people had it... currently ~800 people have it. And in 3 weeks, there will be 8 deaths.
Doesnt sound so bad at the start, right?
And that's where all these nonSTEM types are like 'whats the big deal' and you end up like Italy rather than Japan.

What’s your hang up with people going tits up? It’s going to happen anyway.

In all seriousness, this is our ecosystem’s way of purging. Why fight it so hard? I get it, nobody wants to die... but it’s gonna happen.

There’s a part of me that thinks that this could have been our chance to save the planet. Between overpopulation and pollution, this could have been earth’s opportunity to right itself. And as @MililaniBuckeye suggested, if I’m part of the purge for the greater good... so be it. I’ll take my chances tho, I like the cards I’ve been dealt.

Related topic: Did you see any of the pollution tracking of China and Italy through any of this? People bitching about emissions and what it’s doing to the globe are the same ones bitching about saving a couple of lives at the cost of the global economies... without any consideration of the cost of life associated with stopping global cash flows.

For what it’s worth: https://www.space.com/coronavirus-pollution-emissions-drop-china-italy-satellite-views.html

 

[Taosman]

Logically, the "numbers" from high density areas(big cities/Italy) will be different than small town Ohio. And this is a "different" beast than the yearly flu.

Flatten the Curve, Buckeyes!

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

Office is officially locked to the public as of 12PM today. Nobody in for any reason -- you can mail your shit or join 21st century and upload it to my site. End of story. I'm tired of these old fucks wandering in here like it's nothing and then hanging around to chat. If I'm going to kill my clients, it's going to be on my terms -- not by accidentally catching and spreading some stupid virus with a gay name and a dumb haircut.

Liquor stores have been designated as essential businesses in the Illinois lockdown. And Dat's Da Chicago Way.

Oh, shit. There's going to be a run on Malort isn't there?

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Office is officially locked to the public as of 12PM today. Nobody in for any reason -- you can mail your shit or join 21st century and upload it to my site. End of story. I'm tired of these old fucks wandering in here like it's nothing and then hanging around to chat. If I'm going to kill my clients, it's going to be on my terms -- not by accidentally catching and spreading some stupid virus with a gay name and a dumb haircut.



Oh, shit. There's going to be a run on Malort isn't there?

My building shut down at 3pm yesterday.

And I already have my backup bottle on the bar. Let's see the virus live after a shot of Malort.

 

[Taosman]

It's an inhumane thought to me that we should just make an assumption that this is just "natures way" some how. This is not a war. This only works until a loved one dies because of this bug. Or until you lose your job feeding your family. Is that what it's gonna take to change peoples beliefs?

 

[BuckBackHome]

Liquor stores have been designated as essential businesses in the Illinois lockdown. And Dat's Da Chicago Way.

I stopped in the local liquor store the other day to pick up a couple of things. I figured it would look like the grocery stores and be lots of lightly stocked shelves. Was I wrong. Everything was stocked to the top. I wonder if part of that was because Ohio is overstocked with all the bars returning recently purchased bottles to the State of Ohio.

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

And here we go. The Johns Hopkins map shows that we'll cross 20K today (low 6K on Thursday morning), and that's with the mass shortage of testing kits.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

[heisman]

And here we go. The Johns Hopkins map shows that we'll cross 20K today (low 6K on Thursday morning), and that's with the mass shortage of testing kits.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

If you check out the article I posted earlier, 93% of those tested are negative. Perhaps we need to use the tests we have more wisely? Think about what that does to the health care traffic jam.

Based on that map, the rains are really blessed down in Africa!