In my scenario though, we could theoretically could be #1--not just simply making the playoffs--despite not being a conference champion.
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- Thread starter Smudger
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My scenario actually requires very few upsets:
1. Alabama 13-0: beats Chattanooga, Auburn, SEC East champ - no upsets here
2. Clemson 12-1: beats Wake Forest, South Carolina, ACC Coastal champ - no upsets here
3. Wisconsin 11-2: beats Purdue, Minnesota, Penn State in CCG - no upsets here
4. Penn State 10-3: beats Rutgers, Michigan State; loses to Wisconsin in CCG - no upsets here
5. Oklahoma 10-2: beats #10 WVU, #13 Okie State - both tough games, but not upsets according to the rankings (Oklahoma is #8)
The only true upsets would have to come out of the PAC 12, where #20 Washington State would have to knock off #7 Washington. The game is a rivalry and will be played at WSU, so an upset here is not a stretch. For Washington State to win the PAC 12, they would have to upset the PAC 12 South champion (probably Colorado) in the title game.
However, if Washington State beats Washington, then it doesn't really matter which team comes out of the PAC 12 as all will have at least two losses. I believe that a one-loss Ohio State team with a great resume, lots of talent, an exciting style of football, and a huge TV audience will get in over any two-loss PAC 12 team.
The primary upsets that Ohio State has to worry about are being upset by Michigan State or Michigan.
The Buckeyes doomsday scenario would be the following:
1. Alabama beats Chattanooga and Auburn, but loses to Florida in the SEC championship game. At that point, Florida (11-2) is in and so is one-loss Alabama (sorry folks, that's just the way it's gonna go).
2. Penn State (11-2) beats Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game.
3. Clemson (12-1) wins the ACC.
4. Washington (12-1) win the PAC 12.
Under that scenario, Penn State, Clemson, and Washington are fighting for the final two spots, with Ohio State finishing #6 (again) in the final playoff rankings.
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I am not willing to believe yet, after only 2 years to go on, that they are saying "4 best teams" but really only picking "4 best conference champs"
Call me naive but I do think they intend to pick the best 4 and in a case of a massive CCG upset like UF beating Bama it isn't an automatic bid for the victor.
This year looks like it could be the big test though. If they stay true to best 4 eams, OSU is in great shape. If they are really just turning it into a way to select 4 of the P5 conference winners then they will need to hasten the expansion to allow for some wild cards because you aren't creating the best possible playoffs when you do that.
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I dont think Florida is going to beat Bama. But hypothetically speaking Florida could still lose to LSU or FSU or even both.
If a 3 or 4 loss Florida team somehow beat Bama in the SECCCG I dont see anyway they could justify still putting Bama in the playoff.
Though Florida still has to beat LSU to clinch the division. Tennessee wins it if Florida loses that game and they beat Missouri and Vandy.
If a 3 or 4 loss Florida team somehow beat Bama in the SECCCG I dont see anyway they could justify still putting Bama in the playoff.
Though Florida still has to beat LSU to clinch the division. Tennessee wins it if Florida loses that game and they beat Missouri and Vandy.
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I think the committee has done a great job the past two years and the only time they have ranked a two loss team ahead of a one loss team in final rankings was last year with Stanford over OSU.
OSU played two ranked teams and split - losing late in the year.
Stanford played four ranked teams and beat them all.
The conference championship game helped Stanford not only because it gave them the conference title, but because it was another win over a ranked team and allowed them to jump OSU the final week of the season.
OSU is not going to lose out on the playoffs to a 2 loss BIG team.
PSU will be behind us in the polls Tuesday. The only solid opponent PSU has yet to play that would give them a boost would be in the BIG championship game against a two loss team, whereas we will have added a win over a one loss Michigan. And while the committee does not pay much attention to margin of victory OSU has won 5 games by 39 or more points. PSU on the other hand has been involved in only one game decided by 39 points - AND THEY WERE THE LOSER. Screw head-to-head when we lost on a blocked kick. Two losses and a trouncing like that simply don't measure up - BIG championship be damned.
As for Wisky - who will also be behind us on Tuesday - they will have played four ranked teams and gone 3-2 whereas we would be 4-1 with a win over UM. That resume and a head to head win (even in OT) will trump a BIG championship by a two loss team. Conference championships count, but not more than head to head and a second loss.
OSU played two ranked teams and split - losing late in the year.
Stanford played four ranked teams and beat them all.
The conference championship game helped Stanford not only because it gave them the conference title, but because it was another win over a ranked team and allowed them to jump OSU the final week of the season.
OSU is not going to lose out on the playoffs to a 2 loss BIG team.
PSU will be behind us in the polls Tuesday. The only solid opponent PSU has yet to play that would give them a boost would be in the BIG championship game against a two loss team, whereas we will have added a win over a one loss Michigan. And while the committee does not pay much attention to margin of victory OSU has won 5 games by 39 or more points. PSU on the other hand has been involved in only one game decided by 39 points - AND THEY WERE THE LOSER. Screw head-to-head when we lost on a blocked kick. Two losses and a trouncing like that simply don't measure up - BIG championship be damned.
As for Wisky - who will also be behind us on Tuesday - they will have played four ranked teams and gone 3-2 whereas we would be 4-1 with a win over UM. That resume and a head to head win (even in OT) will trump a BIG championship by a two loss team. Conference championships count, but not more than head to head and a second loss.
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cincibuck
You kids stay off my lawn!
Assuming, assuming, assuming -
One. Notre Dame is out even if they beat USC - but if they do, then Washington is fucked.
Two. If the Buckeyes beat Michigan, especially if by more than 10, but less than 20, then it doesn't matter who plays in, or wins the Big 10 CCG cause they gonna go suck eggs while the Buckeyes go to the playoffs and Michigan gets picked by the Rose Bowl.
Three. TV and the bowls are pick who they want in the finals and in the primo bowl games - suck on that Louisville, Penn State, Big 12 champ and possibly Clemson. They need regional rivals - north v south, east v west and they'll get them cause they got money.
Four. I'm also the guy who insisted (twice) that the bowls would never pit Ohio State against Notre Dame in a bowl game cause they were both from the same region.
One. Notre Dame is out even if they beat USC - but if they do, then Washington is fucked.
Two. If the Buckeyes beat Michigan, especially if by more than 10, but less than 20, then it doesn't matter who plays in, or wins the Big 10 CCG cause they gonna go suck eggs while the Buckeyes go to the playoffs and Michigan gets picked by the Rose Bowl.
Three. TV and the bowls are pick who they want in the finals and in the primo bowl games - suck on that Louisville, Penn State, Big 12 champ and possibly Clemson. They need regional rivals - north v south, east v west and they'll get them cause they got money.
Four. I'm also the guy who insisted (twice) that the bowls would never pit Ohio State against Notre Dame in a bowl game cause they were both from the same region.
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Not sure how you can say that. If they put us at 2 this week, they're going to have to drop us for winning games the next two weeks, one of them against ZOMG PEPPERS!
I think where they put us on Tuesday will tell the whole OSU story for the rest of the way, assuming of course we win out.
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There is no way that an 11-1 Ohio State team, with road night wins against top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win against top-10 Michigan (along with a 59-point demolition of a top-20 Nebraska team), whose only loss was a 3-point loss on a botched special teams play in wet conditions during yet another road night game against a top-10 team, and is division co-champs in arguably the toughest division in all of college football, gets bumped by a two-loss Florida, SEC champ or not. Nor will they get bumped by a Washington team who got thoroughly exposed, at home, by a #20 USC team.
The committee takes conference championships into heavy consideration, but doesn't keep other teams out exclusively because they are not a conference champ. Had we not totally destroyed Wiscy in the B1G CCG game, we would not have jumped both Baylor and TCU for the fourth spot in 2014...we didn't get in because we were the B1G champs, it was the manner in which we became the champs.
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They really have no where else to put us by at #2. Louisville won't jump us seeing as they were down 12-10 entering the fourth quarter at home to a Wake Forest that lost to fucking Army, whilst we were up 55-3 on the road to Maryland going into the fourth.
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we're talking about a group that put penn st at 12 to start.
Edit - and their love affair with aTm. Aggy might be 2.
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