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- Thread starter Smudger
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OSUK
Sometimes lucid, mostly confused
My buddies were all joyous thru scUM's struggles with Iowa last night and couldn't understand why I wasn't - which led to a long series of texts of me explaining why Ohio St needs scUM to win up to The Game to avoid a 2 way tie with PSU. They were like, "Oh shit!"
When Iowa pulled it out I told them to go ahead to mgoblog and get their schadenfreude. I was reading the meltdown and began to think that a good chunk of CFB fans are the most mentally unstable people on earth. ScUM still controls it's destiny and they are saying all is lost and cursing their coaches and players. Unhinged. I fear for them when Ohio St actually does end their hopes.
Lots can and will happen in the next 3 weeks and the situation may simplify, but if it comes down to a contest between a 1 loss Ohio St non-champ and a 2 loss champ, the committee is going to piss a whole lot of people off no matter what they do.
But I would feel pretty good about the Buckeye's chances in that case. It's gonna be fun - and gut-wrenching.
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Zurp
I have misplaced my pants.
I'm reading a lot about how the committee has shown this "long-standing" tradition of taking conference champions. OK - so those are my words, and it's not fair for me to say any of those words. But that's what it feels like. There have been exactly two playoffs that the committee created. The first one had 12-1 Ohio State jumping over a couple of 11-1 teams. Did the committee say that they gave Ohio State the nod BECAUSE of the CCG? (Not asking rhetorically - I truly don't know the answer.) Maybe they truly felt Ohio State was the best of those three teams? The second playoffs had 12-1 Michigan State over 11-1 Ohio State. Michigan State beat Ohio State, too. It's kind of tough to argue Ohio State should have been in over Michigan State. It's pretty easy to argue both spots without including the conference championship game.
Worst-case scenario, if Ohio State wins out, is that Penn State finishes 11-2, with a win over 11-1 Ohio State. Does the committee see Ohio State's loss to Penn State was very flukey? If so, I think we're OK. But they might not.
I hope there's room for both in the playoffs, with Ohio State giving an epic beatdown, with non-Big Ten Shizholeon Referines raping Franklin for the last 15 minutes of gametime.
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Here's a very real scenario for conference champions:
1. Alabama wins the SEC with a record of 13-0
2. Clemson wins the ACC with a record of 12-1
3. Wisconsin wins the Big Ten with a record of 11-2
4. Oklahoma wins the Big XII with a record of 10-2
5. Washington State wins the PAC 12 with a record of 10-3
Under the above scenario, Alabama and Clemson would be locks for the playoffs.
Does an 11-2 Wisconsin make the playoffs over an 11-1 Ohio State team that has already beaten them head-to-head?
Does a 10-2 Oklahoma team, without a CCG, make the playoffs over an 11-1 Ohio State team that has already beaten them head-to-head?
Does a 10-3 Washington State team, with losses to FCS Eastern Washington and G-5 Boise State and zero fan base and zero TV market, make the playoffs period?
I just don't see how you leave Ohio State out of the mix under the above scenario. Ohio State would have a better overall record than three of the conference champs, and would have beaten two of them head-to-head (both on the road at night for that matter). Ohio State would also have wins over top-10 Michigan and highly-ranked Nebraska.
Maybe Ohio State and Wisconsin BOTH make the playoffs in that case, but I see no way that Oklahoma or any multiple-loss PAC 12 champ makes it in over Ohio State.
1. Alabama wins the SEC with a record of 13-0
2. Clemson wins the ACC with a record of 12-1
3. Wisconsin wins the Big Ten with a record of 11-2
4. Oklahoma wins the Big XII with a record of 10-2
5. Washington State wins the PAC 12 with a record of 10-3
Under the above scenario, Alabama and Clemson would be locks for the playoffs.
Does an 11-2 Wisconsin make the playoffs over an 11-1 Ohio State team that has already beaten them head-to-head?
Does a 10-2 Oklahoma team, without a CCG, make the playoffs over an 11-1 Ohio State team that has already beaten them head-to-head?
Does a 10-3 Washington State team, with losses to FCS Eastern Washington and G-5 Boise State and zero fan base and zero TV market, make the playoffs period?
I just don't see how you leave Ohio State out of the mix under the above scenario. Ohio State would have a better overall record than three of the conference champs, and would have beaten two of them head-to-head (both on the road at night for that matter). Ohio State would also have wins over top-10 Michigan and highly-ranked Nebraska.
Maybe Ohio State and Wisconsin BOTH make the playoffs in that case, but I see no way that Oklahoma or any multiple-loss PAC 12 champ makes it in over Ohio State.
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zincfinger
Gert Frobe-approved
I agree that OSU probably gets in under that scenario; a not completely implausible scenario where OSU gets some help by several other teams losing. It does not support a contention (not that you were tying to) that OSU will get in as long as they win out.
Unless I'm completely missing something, which is possible, LJB's post does not suggest that at all.
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zincfinger
Gert Frobe-approved
As LordJeff said earlier, there is obviously no longstanding tradition or precedent in the 4-team playoff, because the 4-team playoff is not longstanding. My point is that I don't view the presumed preference for conference champions (whatever its magnitude) as being about honoring them as much as it is about the (almost equally vague) goal of "letting them prove it on the field." If you didn't win your conference, it was proven on the field, according to your conference rules, that you were not the best team in your conference. And if you're not that, you obviously aren't the best team in the country. There are some obvious problems with that rationale (just as there are obvious problems with any championship determination if you expect it to be "objective"), but I suspect that that, more than "honoring", is the rationale.
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But what if Ped St were to win the B1G championship and finish with 2 losses. Wouldn't that mean they get in the CFP over OSU since they won head to head?
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zincfinger
Gert Frobe-approved
I think that is almost definitely true, and it is even possible that a conference champion Wisconsin team would get in first despite the head-to-head loss and overall worse record. But in LordJeff's scenario, OSU almost certainly gets in ahead of Washington State and has a very good shot to get in ahead of Oklahoma. So regardless whether Wisconsin or PSU won the BigTen CCG, you'd have a pretty good chance of 2 BigTen teams in the playoff in LordJeff's scenario. If you give the gift of two non-BigTen conference champions having 2 or more losses, OSU's chances improve considerably. But if Washington wins their conference with 1 loss, that could be a problem.
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HorseshoeFetish
Silver Bullet Supporter
How about you envision the answer as NO and enjoy in your mind the deliciousness that would be BWI for a moment?
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Do you honestly see Wash St beating Washington? That's a reach. Washington may beat them by a lot. That's more realistic, IMO. But I see what you're insinuating with a 3 loss team
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