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Cleveland Cavs (2016 NBA Champions)

On the other hand Lee had 5 fouls in 13 minutes so I don't know if he can play much more especially after the Cavs spend a little time game planning for him.

Yeah, they'll attack him on offense immediately... he's not fouling cuz he can gaurd anyone, him in the game might get GS back to 110 pts a game but they'll lose 120-110.
 
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Not to be a downer at all, but if I'm Kerr, this is what I am telling my team: "We have them right where we want them. Yes, we'd rather be up 2-1 than down 2-1, but they got 60 of their 96 points from 2 guys, one of which is doubled over after every game and the other of which was taken to the hospital after the game. Meanwhile, we'll keep running 10-11 guys at them until they wear down." Now, that said, one of those guys is LeBron, and they clearly can't stop him. But this defensive effort will be hard to maintain for 7 games, so I think Game 4 is really Game 7. If the Cavs can go up 3-1, they should have them. But if they burn that kind of effort and lose game 4, then they will have to burn the same effort in Game 5 because they will want to close it out in 6 at home. So it gets really difficult if it is a 3 game road series with only 7 guys, given the amount of energy they have to expend defensively. Game 4 is the critical game.

I agree that the minutes are going to hurt the Cavs more than the Warriors, but Curry has been playing 10 minutes more than average so far this series so it might start wearing on him as well. The biggest problem for the Cavs is their offense totally relies on Lebron so the Warriors guards don't have to expend much energy on defense. I'm sure the Cavs feel some pressure to end this as quickly as possible so tomorrow's game will be huge for them. If they could go up 3-1 with 2 days rest before the next game it would be huge. It was good to see Jones and Miller flying around diving for balls because the more productive minutes they get the better off the Cavs will be.

I think the biggest difference right now is the Cavs have 5 guys that have won titles and know what it takes. The Warriors are in their first trip so they aren't quite where they need to be like the Cavs, Heat, and Thunder of the past. These Cavs haven't been there, but they have enough guys that have to get everyone else ready.
 
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Not to be a downer at all, but if I'm Kerr, this is what I am telling my team: "We have them right where we want them. Yes, we'd rather be up 2-1 than down 2-1, but they got 60 of their 96 points from 2 guys, one of which is doubled over after every game and the other of which was taken to the hospital after the game. Meanwhile, we'll keep running 10-11 guys at them until they wear down." Now, that said, one of those guys is LeBron, and they clearly can't stop him. But this defensive effort will be hard to maintain for 7 games, so I think Game 4 is really Game 7. If the Cavs can go up 3-1, they should have them. But if they burn that kind of effort and lose game 4, then they will have to burn the same effort in Game 5 because they will want to close it out in 6 at home. So it gets really difficult if it is a 3 game road series with only 7 guys, given the amount of energy they have to expend defensively. Game 4 is the critical game.

Yeah, but he's telling that to guys who have been battered physically for 3 games in a row. I'm not sure, "Oh, but they're real tired!" is a valid sell at this point.

Its like telling Oregon's D-Line, don't worry, that Elliot kid's gonna run out of gas sooner or later.

So, really, no downer at all
 
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Yeah, but he's telling that to guys who have been battered physically for 3 games in a row. I'm not sure, "Oh, but they're real tired!" is a valid sell at this point.

Its like telling Oregon's D-Line, don't worry, that Elliot kid's gonna run out of gas sooner or later.

So, really, no downer at all
Now? No, maybe not, but if they can steal game 4, it will be in a week, is my only point
 
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All the talk about 'GS came back down 2-1 against Memphis too' forgets Memphis lost Tony Allen and THEN GS made their comeback. Memphis didn't have the depth defensively to make up for that loss but with a healthy Conley and Allen they slowed GS down as well. They don't play well against physical defensive teams so I think it'll be verrrrry hard for them all of a sudden to win 3 out of 4, including 2 on the road. Defense travels easier than offense.
 
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I think Lebron realizes that 2 more wins this season will do more for his legacy than anything he has done to this point and will probably do for the rest of his career. He didn't come back to Cleveland to run the Lebron on 5 offense, but that is the only option now. Hopefully with an offseason to get healthy and a couple good signings or draft picks this won't happen again. Just imagine the up and down 115-120 games we would be seeing if the Cavs were at 100%. Even if the Cavs had one of Irving or Love this would be a different series. I would guess the likelihood of both of them being done for the year at this time next year is pretty low.

Curry thinks he found something in the 4th quarter. We'll see if that's true or if he just found his shot with his team down 20 and the pressure off. The Cavs need to keep dragging down the pace and stay ahead. When the Warriors make a run the Cavs need to answer. If JR was going to have one of those good JR spurts this would be the game. Against a deep talented team like the Warriors even going up 3-1 doesn't end the series, but it would send them home doubting everything about themselves and give the Cavs 2 days rest before they try to finish the series. The Warriors biggest problem is that they haven't been here before and they don't know what it takes. Lebron has and does. This season came so easy for the Warriors that they are just now learning what adversity feels like. I want the Cavs to win more than anything but it still feels too good to be true. The Cavs need to come out strong and choke the life out of the Warriors tonight. If they can go into halftime with another lead the pressure is going to start to crush the Warriors. They can talk about "finding something" all they want, but until the Warriors actually do it from minute 1 all it is is just talk. It's up to Lebron to let them know that this is his series and they haven't found shit.
 
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I think Lebron realizes that 2 more wins this season will do more for his legacy than anything he has done to this point and will probably do for the rest of his career. He didn't come back to Cleveland to run the Lebron on 5 offense, but that is the only option now. Hopefully with an offseason to get healthy and a couple good signings or draft picks this won't happen again. Just imagine the up and down 115-120 games we would be seeing if the Cavs were at 100%. Even if the Cavs had one of Irving or Love this would be a different series. I would guess the likelihood of both of them being done for the year at this time next year is pretty low.

Curry thinks he found something in the 4th quarter. We'll see if that's true or if he just found his shot with his team down 20 and the pressure off. The Cavs need to keep dragging down the pace and stay ahead. When the Warriors make a run the Cavs need to answer. If JR was going to have one of those good JR spurts this would be the game. Against a deep talented team like the Warriors even going up 3-1 doesn't end the series, but it would send them home doubting everything about themselves and give the Cavs 2 days rest before they try to finish the series. The Warriors biggest problem is that they haven't been here before and they don't know what it takes. Lebron has and does. This season came so easy for the Warriors that they are just now learning what adversity feels like. I want the Cavs to win more than anything but it still feels too good to be true. The Cavs need to come out strong and choke the life out of the Warriors tonight. If they can go into halftime with another lead the pressure is going to start to crush the Warriors. They can talk about "finding something" all they want, but until the Warriors actually do it from minute 1 all it is is just talk. It's up to Lebron to let them know that this is his series and they haven't found [Mark May].
LBJ has also been a master psychologist. Not only had begotten this ragtag bunch of potential malcontents to buy in on defense,on but some of the public comments...about not accepting any excuses, about the schedule favoring the Warriors (though I would argue more time to adjust to the time change actually favors the Cavs)...he has both played up the underdog role while not allowing that to dampen expectations...masterfully done.
 
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Now? No, maybe not, but if they can steal game 4, it will be in a week, is my only point

Game 4 is so important in this series... (yeah, isn't every game?) But I believe it will determine the outcome. Cavs win going up 3-1, they are in the driver seat. Warriors win... they take home court back and will be recharged going home with a very good chance of going up 3-2. Also, it deflates the Cavs and the fans. And you are right... if this series goes to 7 games, LeBron will have to have a 50-15-15 type game to overcome how exhausted physically and mentally this team will be.

The fans will bring it tonight. They smell a championship and this city is sooooooo starved. The one thing that can't happen is a slow start, it could deflate the crowd real quick.
 
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Game 4 is so important in this series... (yeah, isn't every game?) But I believe it will determine the outcome. Cavs win going up 3-1, they are in the driver seat. Warriors win... they take home court back and will be recharged going home with a very good chance of going up 3-2. Also, it deflates the Cavs and the fans. And you are right... if this series goes to 7 games, LeBron will have to have a 50-15-15 type game to overcome how exhausted physically and mentally this team will be.

The fans will bring it tonight. They smell a championship and this city is sooooooo starved. The one thing that can't happen is a slow start, it could deflate the crowd real quick.

I don't know if this game is more important than game 3, but it feels like it. The Cavs need to keep the Warriors out of their game and their confidence shaky. Let them stew over being down 3-1 for 2 days, knowing they don't have an answer for Lebron. I think we are going to see a ton of effort tonight from the Warriors like the Hawks in game 3 knowing their season is on the line. Even if the Cavs go up 3-1 the Warriors won't roll over like the Hawks, but I'll feel better.
 
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I don't know if this game is more important than game 3, but it feels like it. The Cavs need to keep the Warriors out of their game and their confidence shaky. Let them stew over being down 3-1 for 2 days, knowing they don't have an answer for Lebron. I think we are going to see a ton of effort tonight from the Warriors like the Hawks in game 3 knowing their season is on the line. Even if the Cavs go up 3-1 the Warriors won't roll over like the Hawks, but I'll feel better.
It might be because the national perception is they "found something" at the end of game 3. Whether its shooting rhythm, David Lee instead of the corpse of Green, whatever...if they don't win tonight, then I think the perception will be they have shot their wad and are out of bullets. On the other hand, if they won it they would be supremely confident that they have found what works. This may be one of, if not the, most important game 4s in recent memory.
 
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I think the winner of game 4 wins the series.
I'd say most likely, but not 100%. Maybe like 90% or so. GS still having a 10% chance if they lose since while they would need to win 3 in a row, 2/3 would be at home. That, and in theory with their deeper bench they should be fresher in the later games. I think that's being a little overrated, but still true to a point. And then if the Cavs lose I'd still give them a 10% chance. I thought about a 20% chance since they've shown they can win @GS, but I'll also factor in the bench here as well.
 
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It might be because the national perception is they "found something" at the end of game 3. Whether its shooting rhythm, David Lee instead of the corpse of Green, whatever...if they don't win tonight, then I think the perception will be they have shot their wad and are out of bullets. On the other hand, if they won it they would be supremely confident that they have found what works. This may be one of, if not the, most important game 4s in recent memory.

I mean, was it the same thing they found at the end of game two, or the same thing they found at the end of game 1 and in overtime of game 1? I think this narrative is being overplayed quite a bit.
 
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If the Cavs lose tonight it's back to 0-0, and they've worked too hard to see that happen.

As far as matchups go, I think coaching will have a huge impact on tonight's game. Blatt and Lue have been masterful with their defensive game plan thus far, and slowing David Lee is obviously a factor in tonight's game. The Cavs game plan has been to get the ball out of Curry and Thompson's hands, and make one of the big guys make a play to beat you. With Lee, he's more than capable. He's a good passer and 10x the shooter that Green is. The Cavs can't switch out of their current game plan, but they do have to make a minor adjustment around Lee. I actually think the solution for Lee comes on the offensive end. Lee is going to get the Warriors going more than the Cavs have seen in the series so far, but if LeBron runs PNR against Lee, I like LeBron as a playmaker a lot more than I like Lee as a playmaker. I think the Cavs are going to have to make GS pay on defense in order to get Lee off the floor. I expect tonight's game will be the highest scoring we've seen so far.

The second adjustment may come from the Warriors. How long can you let LeBron James beat you? Is Golden State really comfortable losing the series while watching LeBron put up these numbers? It's time for Kerr to double team. That means the other Cavs need to beat the Warriors in four on three situtations, and if that does happen, ball movement and knocking down open threes is the way to beat them.
 
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