If the Cavs lose tonight it's back to 0-0, and they've worked too hard to see that happen.
As far as matchups go, I think coaching will have a huge impact on tonight's game. Blatt and Lue have been masterful with their defensive game plan thus far, and slowing David Lee is obviously a factor in tonight's game. The Cavs game plan has been to get the ball out of Curry and Thompson's hands, and make one of the big guys make a play to beat you. With Lee, he's more than capable. He's a good passer and 10x the shooter that Green is. The Cavs can't switch out of their current game plan, but they do have to make a minor adjustment around Lee. I actually think the solution for Lee comes on the offensive end. Lee is going to get the Warriors going more than the Cavs have seen in the series so far, but if LeBron runs PNR against Lee, I like LeBron as a playmaker a lot more than I like Lee as a playmaker. I think the Cavs are going to have to make GS pay on defense in order to get Lee off the floor. I expect tonight's game will be the highest scoring we've seen so far.
The second adjustment may come from the Warriors. How long can you let LeBron James beat you? Is Golden State really comfortable losing the series while watching LeBron put up these numbers? It's time for Kerr to double team. That means the other Cavs need to beat the Warriors in four on three situtations, and if that does happen, ball movement and knocking down open threes is the way to beat them.
I don't think the Warriors are going to drastically change what they are doing on defense. I think they would rather have Lebron back them down every possession and take a contested shot than to double him every time and give him the chance to hit the open guy for an easy shot or dunk. It isn't like Lebron is shooting a high percentage of his shots. IMO the Warriors think the key to the game is hitting more shots on offense. All the games have been close enough that if an extra guy got hot at the right time they would be up 3-0. I'm just hoping that the Cavs slow pace and the inability to get out on the break is what's grounding the Warriors offense. It actually might not be the worst thing for them to let the Cavs get out running and take a big lead early. When the Cavs got the lead in the 3rd Tuesday that seemed to speed up the game and open things for the Warriors offense.
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