So how can the Cavs go about acquiring Murphy? It was hard enough to pry Williams away from a division rival a year ago, and it required a third team. If Ferry can't find a third team this time around, then he still has the massive expiring contract of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is still a serviceable player.
But Z is also five years older than Murphy and offers no young potential, something the Pacers would probably want for a guy like Murphy.
Although the Cavs are high on J.J. Hickson, they really can't afford to keep waiting around for him to develop with the stakes as high as they are. If including Hickson in a package with Z is what it would take to get Murphy to Cleveland, then the Cavs should -- by all means -- pull the trigger. Hickson isn't a guarantee at this point. Murphy, however, is. And he is also a much better fit for the Cavs right now than Hickson.
Plus, it's possible that Hickson's value could be higher right now than it will be at any point in his career if he goes downhill from here. The Cavs can either cash in on his value right now or keep waiting around for the future -- a future that may not include LeBron James if 2010 doesn't end with the Larry O'Brien trophy.
Murphy also doesn't guarantee the title, but he definitely stacks the odds in their favor. If last year's Cavs team won 66 games, then swapping Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and J.J. Hickson -- three of whom even didn't contribute much to begin with -- for Shaq and Murphy would definitely push 70 assuming good health.
It also moves Anderson Varejao back to the bench where he belongs. Now that Andy is getting paid and in the fold for the long haul, it will probably be easier for him to accept the role that he had to begin with. Plus, both Varejao and Murphy's abilities to play center as well as power forward would afford a much deeper bench and a more versatile frontcourt rotation -- one that would get even stronger once Powe comes back in the spring.
For the Pacers, getting Z would save them $11.9 million for next summer and get them under the new salary cap by about $7 million. It also gives them a young piece in Hickson to help begin a rebuilding project, another thing that a team treading water would be looking for in trading a star like Murphy.
Of course, it's all speculation at this point. But an expiring contract begins to accumulate more and more value the closer we get to the trading deadline. And if the Pacers are looking at another season of being 10 games under .500 (or making the playoffs as an eighth seed only to be dusted unceremoniously by one of the East's top dogs), then this trade begins to make more and more sense for both clubs.
