AKAKBUCK said:
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</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>Swerb: Competency, Thy Name is Savage
By Rich Swerbinsky
Date: Apr 11, 2005
Swerb looks at the impact made by the Browns new GM
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The last four months have been a learning experience for me as a Browns fan.
I’ve had my eyes opened to the complete and comprehensive damage done to this franchise by Butch Davis, and was then given a crash course on how things should be done by new Browns General Manager Phil Savage.
Looking back on The Butch Years, and knowing what I know now, I’m disappointed in myself that I couldn’t piece together all the warning signs that foreshadowed our team coming apart at the seams. By the time I publicly gave up on Paul Hilton Davis, most of the city had already done so.
Throughout the process, and even during the downward spiral that climaxed with Butch “resigning”, I kept reminding myself what Butch had done at the University of Miami of Florida. And that he led this team to the brink of a road playoff win in 2002 with a team that had no business even being there from a talent standpoint. I helped rationalize shaky efforts in free agency in 2003 and 2004 on the fact that foolish spending in Al Lerner’s last years as owner (in the hopes of immediate contention) severely limited our options from a talent acquisition standpoint.
I think many fans shared these sentiments.
My over-inflated optimism blinded me to the fact that Butch was in far over his head, which was confirmed by just about every player on this team that I’ve talked to since he departed.
Here was Terrelle Smith’s take on Butch from my interview with him for Bernie’s Insiders Magazine.
Terrelle: “I think what happened was that Butch lost a lot of guys in that locker room. Some of the younger players were a little confused, didn't understand that is how the business goes. There were a lot of things that could have been nipped in the bud that went negative, that could have stayed positive. Being an outsider initially, and then turning into a guy that was a leader that was trying to work and help the situation, what I found is that a lot of players didn't believe the coach anymore. That's something you don't want. And the way I viewed it; and it's something you can't have at this level.”
Butch Davis demanded total control and ultimate veto power over all personnel matters, and who could blame him at the time? He had just brought a major university back from the depths, and he wielded the same control there in doing so. We had a buffoon of a GM in Dwight Clark, and fans were starved for someone with a keener eye for talent.
Little did we know what loomed ahead. Butch proved to be completely overmatched at nearly all facets of the management of the team, from the establishment (or lack thereof) of a scouting and talent evaluation system, to learning how to control a locker room. The Browns were never a very talented team under Davis, and in his final seasons here ... those marginally talented players lost their desire to play for the man.
Butch proved to be a terrible judge of NFL talent, but even more pathetic was his judge of character. In college, it’s enough to just pursue the most talented players. In the NFL, talent will only get you so far. You need to acquire the right type of talent, not necessarily just the fastest and strongest players.
The damage that Butch did to this franchise is now being exposed by his very competent (in my mind) successor. The two men are polar opposites in their philosophies on what types of players are needed to build a winning football team, evidenced by Savage’s extreme makeover of the roster these past couple months.
I absolutely love the moves Savage has made, and am very optimistic going forward.
He made a statement early, moving on two of the top available offensive guards in free agency, and landing both Joe Andruzzi and Cosey Coleman almost immediately after the signing period began, filling two gaping holes on the offense. And he immediately sent a message to malcontents Jeff Garcia, Gerard Warren, and William Green that they were no longer wanted. Warren was turned into new starting QB Trent Dilfer, and Willie should yield at least a 5th or 6th round selection by draft day. The plug was pulled on the Courtney Brown experiment, who was deemed to unreliable to allocate any serious cap money towards.
Anthony Henry was lost in free agency, but was immediately replaced by Gary Baxter, a very capable replacement ... if not an upgrade at the position. Matt Stewart and Jason Fisk were brought in to contribute to the teams new 3-4 set, and Kyle Richardson was signed to punt for the team. Ekuban and Myers, two players viewed as shaky fits for a 3-4 front were dealt to Denver for RB Rueben Droughns.
Andra Davis and Ben Taylor, the promising young duo expected to be our starters at ILB, were resigned as well. Brian Russell was added at the expense of Earl Little.
Savage even managed to chip away at our division rival and his former employer, the Ravens, forcing them to match a three million dollar offer sheet for RB Chester Taylor, who the Browns attempted to sign away as a restricted free agent.
And he has done all this adding only quality individuals, and still has the team in a very flexible cap position with some free agent options still floating out there and the draft approaching.
I’m genuinely excited by what Savage has done, and expect him to finish off the off-season with a strong draft that will most likely see the team deal down from their #3 position.
Have we come full circle in four months? It sure seems like it.
Rich Swerbinsky
[email protected]
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I still think that the Browns will trade down with Minnesota in order for them to select Edwards.
even if SF takes edwards, that makes mike williams a hot commodity. the bears are pretty much set at taking a wr from all indications. if edwards is off the board, they very likely may take williams, which may make a team jump to #3 to grab him.IronBuckI said:
Not necessarilyIronBuckI said:
No...it tells me they may be leaning towards a quarterback with the first pick.
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</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>Winds of Change Continue in Berea
By Scout.com
Date: Apr 18, 2005
Scout.com takes a look at the continuing off-season of change in Berea, as their analysis leads them to believe that Braylon Edwards is likely to become a Brown on Saturday... unless there are sudden changes or trades... which is to be expected. Coverage of perhaps the least predictable draft since the Browns returned in 1999 continues as the pace picks up...
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The winds of change have been blowing like a tornado since Phil Savage became general manager and Romeo Crennel became head coach of the Browns, and the draft hasn't occurred yet.
Including players released, traded, not resigned and lost in free agency, the Browns are already without 19 that were on the roster in Houston for the final game of the regular season in 2004, and that does not include Courtney Brown, Kelvin Garmon or Jeff Garcia. Those three finished the season on injured reserve and have since been released.
By the season opener Sept. 11 against the Bengals, between 25 and 30 faces are likely to be different. That's what happens when a new regime takes over a franchise that was 9-23 over the last two seasons.
DRAFT STRATEGY - Despite being very active in free agency plus acquiring a starting quarterback and potentially a starting running back through trades, the Browns still have more holes than draft picks. For that reason, Savage will stay close to the phone while the Browns are on the clock in the first round - and the second round, for that matter.
"We don't want to just give the pick away if we were to try to move it, but we're prepared to go pretty far down if we feel like it's a good thing to do," Savage said. "We're open to anything. We're willing to pick, we're willing to stay, we're willing to move down.
"Obviously, the more (picks) the better for us, but if we come out of it (Saturday) with the three right picks I think we'll be happy."
The Browns started with a list of 500 potentially draftable players and whittled it down to 155. The list is evenly divided with 77 offensive and 78 defensive players. Though the Browns' seventh-round choice will be the 217th overall choice, Savage is confident at least one player on his wish list will still be available when he makes his final pick.
If the pick is not traded, and if the 49ers select Aaron Rogers and the Dolphins Ronnie Brown, the Browns are likely to choose Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards. They are unconcerned about any attitude problems Edwards reportedly has.
"You want a receiver to be a little bit on the edge," Savage said. "You want a guy who wants the ball thrown his way."
Somewhere along the line the Browns are expected to draft a quarterback, though not with the first pick. They have had Rodgers, Jason Campbell of Auburn and Alex Smith of Utah in for visits and they have visited Charlie Frye nearby at the University of Akron.
The Dolphins also are expected to draft a quarterback. Miami drafts second and the Browns third in the first round, but in the second round they flop positions. It's possible the Dolphins would anticipate the Browns choosing a quarterback in the second round, and that might persuade Miami to choose Smith in the first round. That scenario would leave Brown and Edwards for the Browns with the third pick, which would increase the possibility of a trade.
Before the draft ends, the Browns must address depth on the offensive line, particularly at tackle, and they must pump life into the 3-4 defense they are converting to. Among the players traded or released were four defensive linemen.
Though most of the interest is tied to the first-round pick because it is so high, Savage is determined to make this a seven-round draft for the Browns. He has also prepared a list of players he expects to be rookie free agents. In the Browns war room are three boards - the main board and two sideboards. One sideboard lists players with medical issues and the other with character issues that concern Savage. They are not looking to draft seven saints, but neither are they going to spend high picks on players with a checkered past.
"I look at the draft like a par 5 in golf, just advance the ball," Savage said. "As long as I'm putting for a par when I get to that green, we'll be okay. We'll take pars all the way through the draft. People are going to be looking for double-eagles and birdies. When you do that, you're going to yank one into the lake and way out into the woods.
"We don't want to do that. We want to continue what we've done in free agency - build the team with the right kind of guys and the right kind of players. We have a long way to go. This is just another step."</FONT>
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</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>Random Thoughts: Where are They Now?
By Dale Galbraith
Date: Apr 19, 2005
In this week's Random Thoughts from a Wasted Mind, Dale Galbraith offers a look at what happened to the draft class of 1999... and 2000... and 2001...
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Where are they now? Since their rebirth in the NFL in 1999 the Cleveland Browns have drafted the exact number of players it takes to fill an NFL roster. That’s right. Fifty-three players have put on a Cleveland Browns’ ball cap on Draft Weekend over the past six years. Taking a look back, it is evident how poor Phil Savage’s predecessors were on evaluating talent.
1999 Draft Class
From the first Draft in 1999, only cornerback Daylon McCutcheon is on the Browns’ roster.
Tim Couch, the number one overall pick of the Draft, is rehabbing a sore throwing arm and is out of football. Three of the picks are still in the NFL but with different teams. Middle linebacker Wali Rainer just re-signed with the Detroit Lions where he was a backup in 2004. James Dearth is currently the long-snapper for the New York Jets. Wide receiver Kevin Johnson went to the Jaguars when the Browns released him at mid-season in 2003, then to the Ravens who let him go this off-season. It appears that he and Dick Vermeil, who has been courting him for years, will finally get together in Kansas City.
Three of the 1999 draft selections are still playing football, but not in the NFL. Marquis Smith is currently representing the Oakland Raiders in NFL Europe and is playing outside linebacker for the Hamburg Sea Devils. Rahim Abdullah played defensive end for the Edmonton Eskimos of the CFL in 2004, and is pondering signing with Ottawa as a free agent in 2005. Darrin Chiaverini is a starting wide-out for the Austin Wranglers in the Arena Football League. Marcus Spears, Kendall Ogle and Madre Hill are all out of football. Madre Hill was hired in December of 2004 to coach the running backs at the University of South Carolina, his Alma Mater.
2000 Draft Class
Five players from the 2000 Draft are still active in the NFL but only receiver Dennis Northcutt and tight end Aaron Shea are still with the Browns.
Brad Bedell recently resigned with the Green Bay Packers where he will compete for a starting offensive line position in 2005. Cornerback Lewis Sanders went to the Jags then back to the Browns. This off-season he re-signed with the Browns, oops wait a minute, he went to Houston as a free agent. After being released this year by the Browns, defensive end Courtney Brown, the ‘Quiet Storm’ in Cleveland, will attempt to become the ‘Raging Blizzard’ in Denver. Defensive back Anthony Malbrough and quarterback Spergon Wynn headed north of the border to pursue their trade. Malbrough started for the Ottawa Renegades last year and may sign as a free agent with the Calgary Stampeders for the upcoming season. Wynn has not fared as well. He is the back-up quarterback for the B.C. Lions.
Travis Prentice, JaJuan Dawson, Lamar Chapman, Manuia Savea, Eric Chandler and Rashidi Barnes are no longer playing football. Lamar Chapman is the defensive backfield coach for Nazarene University.
2001 Draft Class
Out of the 2001 Draft only safety Michael Jameson is on the roster. Jameson has fought hard to stay on the roster by doing whatever the Browns have asked of him.
On the other hand defensive tackle Gerald Warren, the overall number three pick of the entire Draft, did little of what the Browns expected of him and was moved to Denver for a fourth round pick. Cornerback Anthony Henry has played well in the NFL, but will be playing for the Dallas Cowboys in years to come. The Browns did swap wide-out Quincy Morgan, who was a third round pick, to the Cowboys for wide receiver Antonio Bryant. Therefore, the selection cannot be considered a bust for the Browns at this time. It will depend how long and how well Bryant plays for them.
Running back James Jackson was waived during the 2004 season and was signed by Green Bay who also released him. James is currently looking to find a team. Offensive lineman Paul Zukauskas and receiver Andre King are unrestricted free agents this year and have yet to find a team. All indications are they probably are no longer in the Browns’ plans.
Then there is linebacker Jeremiah Pharms who was never offered a contract because of the legal problems he was experiencing shortly after the Draft. Pharms is playing this year for the Everett Hawks of the newly formed Professional Indoor Football League. 2002 Draft Class
The 2002 Draft has produced two players that are return starters and one that is penciled in as starter in 2005. The often-injured Andre Davis will return to anchor one of the receiver positions and linebacker Andra Davis will also return from an injury to start at one of the middle backer positions of the 3-4 defense being installed by Romeo Crennel and the coaching staff.
Ben Taylor is slated to start at the other inside backer spot. Taylor has never played in a 3-4 defense in his career.
That year’s Draft also produced two backups with center Marvin Fowler and running back William Green. Fowler is a restricted free agent who the Browns want to re-sign and most likely will. Green the Browns’ first pick that year, who is still under contract, may be on his way out if the Browns can find a trading partner. Tight end Darnell Sanders, who will forever be known as the first Butch Davis’ draft pick to be cut by Davis, was with the Falcons in 2004 and is currently on the Bears roster. Linebacker Kevin Bentley signed with Seahawks and Joaquin Gonzalez signed with the Colts in this year’s free agency.
2003 Draft Class
Out of the 2003 Draft only sixth round pick defensive lineman Antonio Garay is not with the Browns. The injury plagued Garay is out of football at this time. It is still to be determined what impact starters center Jeff Faine and linebacker Chaun Thompson will have in upcoming years.
hris Crocker replaced Earl Little at free safety in 2004 and will compete with newly acquired Brian Russell for the same position in 2005. Lee Suggs will part of the anticipated one-two punch with Reuben Droughns in the backfield. Ryan Portbriand may hold down the long snapping duties for years to come. Long snapper seems like the safest position on any NFL roster these days. Michael Lehan will have to make the team as a special team ace.
2004 Draft Class
Last year’s Draft was the ‘Draft that Never Was’ for the Browns. First round pick tight end Kellen Winslow held out of training camp with a lengthy contract negotiation, then was lost for the season after suffering a broken leg against Dallas in the second game.
The Browns’ second pick safety Sean Jones injured a knee in mini camp and never made the playing field. Luke McCown was forced into action when quarterbacks Jeff Garcia and Kelly Holcomb were injured.
Defensive lineman Amon Gordon and offensive lineman Kirk Chambers participated in six games but saw sparse playing time. Chambers is an exclusive rights free agent and is contemplating retirement to become a missionary. Running back Adimchinobe Echemandu saw a little action at the end of the season when games started to look a lot like preseason events.
The Totals
Out of the 53 players drafted 21 are still on the team. That might seem like a reasonable number until you take a look at how that number breaks down:
Starting corner Daylon McCutcheon, third wide receiver Dennis Northcutt and back-up tight end Aaron Shea are the only players left from when Dwight Clark was calling the shots on Draft Day. The rest are Butch Davis’ choices. It remains to be seen how many of them will become Savage’s guys. My guess is you will be able to count them with one hand.
- 6 starters on the Browns ever-changing 2005 depth chart
- 2 players that should start in 2005, but haven’t fully recovered from injuries sustained last season
- 1 player who started mid-season in 2004 but will have to win the spot in training camp
- 5 players that are penciled in as backups in 2005 but have seen significant playing time
- 1 player that saw most of his action on special teams
- 1 long snapper
- 1 third string quarterback who was forced into action because of injuries to the other QBs
- 2 players that saw very limited playing time in 4-6 games in 2004
- 1 player looking to join the missionary after one year of limited service in the NFL
- 1 former troubled first round pick whom the Browns are looking to trade
No versatility
Phil Savage does not seem to emphasis versatility in a player. Butch Davis used the word frequently during his tenure as head coach of the Cleveland Browns. My definition of a versatile player is he is average at many positions, but not great at any. The Browns do not need versatility. They need greatness.
Wasted mind was wrong
Last week I said that Sterling Harris is the backup right offensive tackle for the Frankfurt Galaxy. Zac Jackson reported last week for the Browns’ website that Harris had broke into the starting line-up. So there is something to keep our eyes on there.
The Schedule
A lot of observers feel that a week four bye is too early. But with Training Camp usually starting at the end of July, the football season is actually twenty-two weeks long. The bye date of October 2, is the ninth week of the twenty-two-week period which is almost the midpoint. As fans we are just getting going, but the team needs a break by then.
I believe that the 2005 Browns will get better as the season progresses. Therefore having what appears to be the toughest part of the schedule, although there are no easy games in the NFL, toward the end of the year sets well with me.
The two home games on Christmas Eve against the Steelers and New Year’s Day against the Ravens means I have to rethink my Holiday wishes. Usually I don’t care if I receive any presents for Christmas, this year I definitely want a win. I try to start every New Year off with the resolution that I will have ‘good will toward men’. That can’t be with the Ratbirds in town.
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Rich's Favorite: USC's Mike Williams
</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>Rich's Rant: Countdown to Chaos
By Rich Passan
Date: Apr 19, 2005
For a brief moment, fans will hold their collective breath... then the debates will rage again!
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Just a few more days until the rhetoric builds to a crescendo. Arguments elevate to a different, much more spectacular level.
Ratcheting up the invective, not difficult to do within the confines of this Web site, takes on a whole new definition.
One of the best sports days of the year is just a few days away. The closer we get to D-Day, NFL College Draft Day Saturday at high noon in New York, the hotter it will get. And then everything will stop. Just like that.
All the threads and posts that have traversed the Bernie Insiders boards and forums the last several months become mere memories. Fond to some, humorous to others, classic to the rest.
All Browns fans who religiously follow the draft will retreat to their respective corners to root for their favorites. Cross their fingers that the Browns will pick their man in the first round.
They will hold their breaths, say their little football prayers and . . . and . . . wait.
Wait for the most anticipated draft since the Browns returned to town in 1999. Wait for Phil Savage to take his first draft steps as the club’s general manager. The beginning of the resurrection of the Cleveland Browns will commence.
Sides will be taken regardless of what Savage does the first time around. Sycophants will back him no matter whom he selects. Skeptics will take a wait-and-see attitude. Critics will rail.
Those who choose the blind-faith route never learn. Trust and faith started with the ill-fated Carmen Policy-Dwight Clark regime. It encored with Butch Davis and Pete Garcia.
And now we have Savage and his man Saturday, Bill Rees. Savage and his pro personnel chief have pared the original list of 500 players to 155, 77 on offense and 78 on defense. The game plan will be in place by Thursday. Roughing out the first three rounds will be completed by Friday.
It is imperative that Savage lives up to his reputation as a draft maven. True, he did not have the final say when he was Ozzie Newsome’s right-hand man in Baltimore, but the lion’s share of the credit fell his way anyway.
Now, he’s the boss. The pressure to succeed will be enormous. The fans are counting heavily on him to rekindle the franchise’s once-proud reputation.
If Savage is smart, he initially will address the offense, most notably wide receiver. The Browns need a stud, an impact player, for their passing game. They need someone who instills fear in the opposition.
Andre Davis, Dennis Northcutt and Antonio Bryant do not exactly leave opposing secondaries quaking in their cleats. Trent Dilfer needs a go-to guy, someone to rely on whenever a play needs to be made.
The top candidates are Braylon Edwards and Mike Williams, receivers as much like each other as they are dissimilar.
Edwards is faster, shorter and has less reliable hands than Williams. He rang up wonderful statistics in his last two seasons with Michigan, but was prone to drop easy passes. Williams put up terrific stats in his two seasons at USC and caught just about everything. But he did not play last season and that is considered in some quarters as a red flag.
So whom to take. Savage seems to be leaning toward Edwards, although he danced around the question when asked if Williams was less a possibility to be chosen because he missed last season and hasn’t played for nearly 18 months. He did not rule it out.
What makes this draft more intriguing than past lotteries is that no player sticks out as the absolute best. And in just about any other year, no player this year would be good enough to warrant selection in the top five.
The top tier consists of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith, running back Ronnie Brown and Edwards and Williams on offense, and cornerback Antrel Rolle and linebacker Derrick Johnson on defense with linebacker/defensive end Shawne Merriman lurking as a dark horse.
But only Rodgers and Smith (because they are the best quarterbacks) and Edwards are considered by draft gurus to be worthy of the top pick.
So what does Savage do? (Please, no quarterback.) Most fans want him to trade down and pick up more draft picks. But he needs a dance partner and this is not a compelling enough draft for that likelihood to occur.
Now it’s time to play GM for a day. For the first round only.
If I’m Savage, I do not hesitate after Miami makes its pick at #2. I write down a name on a slip of paper. I know it’s the right name. I know he’s a player who will make the Browns better immediately.
I show the slip of paper to Randy Lerner and Rees. And then I wait the obligatory 12-13 minutes in the event a team or two swallows stupid pills and calls seeking a trade.
When the call does not come, I make my move and reveal my choice to the team representative in New York. I telephone the newest member of my team and welcome him to the Browns’ family.
Then I sit back and watch Commissioner Paul Tagliabue stride to the microphone and announce: “With the third pick of the 2005 National Football League draft, the Cleveland Browns select Mike Williams, wide receiver, USC.”
And before I try to trade back into the first round and begin to reconstruct the defense, I allow myself to dream of just how difficult it will be for NFL defensive coordinators to game-plan for Kellen Winslow Jr. and Mike Williams.
Back to reality and begging the question: Will Savage shock everyone and draft Williams? He has been awfully low key when discussing him. Makes one wonder if Williams is his man.
Shock me if he did? Somewhat. Please me? You can’t imagine how much.
Or will Savage trade down and scoop up Merriman? Shock me if he did? Not really. Please me? Pleasantly so.
Only a few more days and then the arguments again will rage and the vitriol will flow freely on this Web site. It’ll be business as usual.
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</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>Levine: Draft is Glamorous, but Free Agency is Key
By Les Levine
Date: Apr 20, 2005
Les looks at the upcoming draft and the Browns free agent activities...
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After much anticipation, the NFL college draft of 2005 is finally upon us. While most observers think that Browns General Manager Phil Savage has done an outstanding job in acquiring talent already, and releasing lesser talent, the draft, and what follows after, is where he made the reputation which led him to his present job.
Hundreds of mock drafts are held around the country, and hours of sports programming are devoted to the draft, which in days gone by, was about the only way that a team could improve itself. The whole concept of the draft, the worst team getting the first pick, with the reigning champion getting the last, was set up to allow the struggling teams to get better.
It is an outdated concept. The better managed team (salary-cap wise), the successful teams, and the teams located in a desirable geographical area still have a great advantage in recruiting veteran free agents, unless teams like Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, and, yes, Cleveland, decide to overpay for them. For the most part, the free agent pickups are known quantities, and teams already know what they are getting, rather than waiting a couple of years to find out if they have made the right choices.
While struggling teams can be lured into taking a top-flight Quarterback, with the intention of grooming him and getting value from him two or three years later, no free agent acquisition is ever made with the thought of getting value later, rather than sooner.
In this day and age of the NFL, there is no time to wait.
Check the list of playoff teams over the past five or six years, and you will see that there is always a turnover as far as new participants are concerned on a year-to-year basis. A bad team usually cannot go from missing out on the playoffs to the Super Bowl the next year, but there are more than enough examples of teams who miss out and then get into the playoffs with room to spare the following season.
The bottom line is that the Browns have already added nine or ten free agents who will make a greater impact on this year’s team than anyone, other than the top pick, who will be selected over this coming weekend. But history shows that GMs who don’t succeed are generally graded on what they do in the draft, rather than how they do in the free agent market.
<HR width="75%" color=#ff8000>I don’t think anyone really knows what Savage will do with the third pick on Saturday, and that probably includes himself. Already San Francisco appears to have changed its mind about which quarterback they would like, as they are apparently trying to work out financial details with Utah’s Alex Smith, even though the local kid, Aaron Rodgers, was thought to be their choice.
Phil hasn’t asked me for advice, but here it is.
With the additions on the offensive line, along with Running Back Reuben Droughns, and the return of Kellen Winslow, Jr., the Browns have a chance to be pretty good on offense. Certainly the offense is way ahead of the defense at this point, and the defense, even under Romeo Crennel, is probably a year or two away from being in good shape.
Rather than taking someone for the defense that wouldn’t change that side of the ball significantly, I’d opt for Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams (I’d lean toward Williams), which would give the offense a variety of weapons.
Even if Savage trades down a couple of notches (Tampa Bay wants a QB), Williams might still be available. If, however, Williams is the guy he wants, I don’t think I’d take the risk of losing him by trading down.
Butch Davis was criticized last year for trading one space to secure Winslow, but if he was convinced that was the right guy, it was worth the risk. Trading down multiplies the possibilities of losing their man, which would not be worth it, even though almost anybody they wind up with in the top ten would be of immediate help.
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</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>MDM: Late-Breaking Draft Trends
By Site Staff
Date: Apr 21, 2005
Our updated survey of over 50 mock drafts shows that there are some late-breaking trends which may delight (and annoy) Browns fans. There is sharp movement on several fronts with 48 hours to go before the draft kicks off Saturday...
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Can you beat these so-called "expert mock drafts"? Click here for the BerniesInsiders.com Mock Draft Contest!
Showing that mock drafts have herding instincts as powerful as their ability to reproduce, recent updates to the 50+ mock drafts tracked by the Mock Draft Muncher show a massive shift towards Michigan WR Braylon Edwards as the Browns selection in the last four days. The move from Alex Smith and Derrick Johnson to Edwards is one of the most pronounced trends to be found in the Mock Draft Muncher as we near Saturday's draft.
Here are the late-breaking trends as shown in the mock drafts surveyed by the Muncher:
There are other trends which you may be able to spot as you surf around the Mock Draft Muncher pages.
- Edwards to the Browns
The shift is very impressive, as Edwards goes from being an also-ran to the front-runner within a week. One of the most dramatic displays of mock draft herd mentality in memory.- Few Are Buying Edwards Posturing by SF and Miami
Edwards isn't moving upward in mock drafts for the 49ers or Miami Dolphins, indicating that mock draft experts feel that the Dolphins will still choose a QB or RB when push comes to shove. The only question now is whether Saban can fool the Vikings. Niners trend. Dolphins trend.- Browns picking Jason Campbell in the Second is Looking Less Likely
Campbell is only showing on a couple of first-round mock drafts, but there is some sharp last-minute movement to Campbell in the #25 draft slot previously held by the Broncos, and now property of the Redskins. With Charlie Frye the subject of possible interest by the Packers, there exists the prospect of a first-round run on all the top available quarterbacks.- Matt Jones gets the 2005 Outta Nowhere Award
Jones is easily this year's player who came out of nowhere in the last month of the draft, i.e., the "workout warrior" winner. Jones was not on a single mock draft one month ago. While his average draft position has changed little, Jones has now shown up about half of the mock drafts, with curve being exponential.- Alex Smith to Dolphins Gains Credibility
First though to be posturing for the benefit of the Tampa Bay Bucs and Jon Gruden, more Mock Draft authors are buying that Alex Smith could be the selection of the Dolphins. Smith is gaining somewhat on both the Niners and Dolphins. The confusion around who will actually pick Smith shows up in the Mock Draft Muncher draft simulation, because he's the second choice of the Niners, Dolphins, and Browns respectively, and falls through the top three picks.
Massive thanks, as always, to TheBrownsFan for allowing us to adapt his spreadsheets and reports for our use on BerniesInsiders.com.
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</CENTER>I wouldn't complain about Ronnie Brown or Braylon Edwards at #3......it would be nice to trade down though.<CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="98%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>
</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top>The Owl is On the Clock
By The Owl
Date: Apr 21, 2005
...and his pick at the #3 position may surprise you.
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It is 12:35 p.m. Saturday.
The 49ers have selected quarterback Alex Smith from Utah with the first pick in the draft and the Buccaneers have taken quarterback Aaron Rodgers after making a trade with the Dolphins for the second pick.
The Browns are on the clock. Their phones at team headquarters in Berea are ringing like crazy because Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards and Auburn running back Ronnie Brown are still available.
In a stunning development, Phil Savage calls on The Owl for advice. Only 10 minutes remain in the Browns allotted 15 minutes.
"I'm flattered, Phil, but what I usually do is hoot my opinion after the fact. It's a lot easier to be right that way."
"I hear you, but I need to know now. Should we trade it? Should we pick Edwards? Should we pick Brown?"
"Well, if I were the G.M., Phil, I'd trade the pick if I could stay in the top-10 and get another second-round pick. You could repair a lot of damage with three picks in the top-45."
"And if we can't make the deal? Brown or Edwards? C'mon. We're running out of time."
"Everybody says you're going to take Edwards. I say you should pick Ron Brown. If he's the best running back in the draft, you have to ask yourself this question: Is he better than Reuben Droughns and Lee Suggs? If he is, you take him. If not, pick Edwards."
The Owl did some research on this subject and discovered the top four receivers in the AFC played for teams that did not make the playoffs in 2004. It is only slightly better in the NFC, where three of the top four receivers played for teams that missed the post-season,
It is just the opposite at running back. Five of the top six running backs last year played for teams that made the playoffs. Shaun Alexander, the leading rusher in the NFC, took the Seahawks to the playoffs.
A running back will always have a bigger impact than a receiver would on a team. The Browns situation is a little unique because of Droughns and Suggs and because they do not have a No. 1 receiver to draw coverage away from Kellen Winslow Jr. Antonio Bryant certainly is not that player.
Edwards and Winslow could be fantastic together, and if both are team players they should not mind sharing the football if the Browns win. Still, Phil is asking for the advice, and the Owl says go with the running back - if you cannot make a trade.
If the trade is made and Brown is gone, Savage would probably have the chance to draft Mike Williams, the wide receiver from USC who was forced to sit out last year. As an aside on the Williams deal, everybody is saying he didn't do anything wrong when he left college last year after his sophomore season. He just followed Maurice Clarett thinking the courts would allow him to turn pro .
The fact is Williams was being greedy, thinking of himself instead of the USC Trojans. They won the national championship without him, which was good to see.
Back to the draft; if the Browns can stay in the top eight by trading with Arizona, which has the eighth pick, they should be able to get Williams, a quarterback with their own second-round pick - Jason Campbell of Auburn would fit well here - and a linebacker or defensive end with the second-round pick acquired for the third overall.
Fans are focused on the first pick. That's going to be the easy one for Savage, whether the Browns stay at three or slide down a little.
Savage needs to hit on virtually every pick to get the Browns back on the right track. Certainly, there is room on a 4-12 team for the first three picks to start as rookies, unless one of them is a quarterback.
They do not have to be star players out of the box, but we'd like to see signs of potential success in the 2005.
Remember, Phil. Think Ronnie Brown first.
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