Big Ten and other Conference Expansion

[CincyInterloper]

Based on academic research + AAU + TV markets + football, with some consideration for "plays nice with others" (I'm looking at you, Texas), it would seem that the most logical new invitees would be Washington, North Carolina, and Florida, with Notre Dame possibly becoming the 20th school.

I'd take Stanford to have a four-team pod in the west and start forwarding all calls from the 574 area code to voicemail.

 

[Dryden]

Interesting note on those research funding $s... I looked up what Nebraska made in 2011: $132m, which was $7m less than the previous year.


Since that inaugural season in the Big Ten, UN-L has seen nine consecutive years of growth and ballooned their funding 250% in a decade.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

I'd take Stanford to have a four-team pod in the west and start forwarding all calls from the 574 area code to voicemail.

If they do go to pods, they will be 5-team pods, maybe even 6

 

[Dryden]

If they do go to pods, they will be 5-team pods, maybe even 6

I wouldn't even presume to know how they'll do it, I just half-expect they'll arbitrarily make up conference schedules that ensure USC plays Ohio State at least 8 years out of 10, just like they did with Nebraska, to maximize the TV inventory. Somehow Nebraska and Ohio State have met eight times in eleven seasons despite never being in the same division, never meeting in a CCG, and never having a 'protected crossover rivalry.'

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Juggalos...juggalos...juggalos

bearcat_df Wrote: UC should work to make the best of our opportunity to join the Big 12.
And, we should have a plan to prepare for applying to the SEC. A few years ago, I made the argument UC should be hoping for an invite to the SEC. It seemed like a crazy idea at the time. I can't remember the timing - IIRC we had missed out on the ACC and the Big 12 wasn't happening. At the time, the ACC looked like the best home. My argument at the time, wasn't that we were SEC ready (I think this was pre-Fick); but that it would be a way for the SEC to weaken the Big 10. OSU has a unique advantage - they are the only P5 team from a state with a large population that doesn't share the state with another P5 team. Now, given the leaps we have made in terms of competition - it makes more sense. SEC weakens OSU, gains the state of Ohio, and gets the Bearcats! When is the GOR for the ACC up? At the very least, there should be a plan, and some strategic conversations/ relationship building

Bolded, yes, it would be foolish to sit back and assume all is well for UC as the Bearcats have found a forever home in the P5 as a B12 member. It's entirely possible that college football evolves to a "P3" and the B12 is on the right side of the cut line. But a year ago if I said Texas will be in the SEC and USC will be in the B10 I would have been labeled a crazed realignment troll.

Recent history suggests complacency of UC leadership was a costly mistake when it came to the collapse of the Big East. I do feel we're in better hands with John Cunningham--he's been impressive on several strategic initiatives since he arrived. And who knows, if the SEC decides to cross the Ohio River into territory the B10 folks feel they own, UC could be situated in the right place at the right time. So, we agree, it behooves the University to be prepared.

 

[cincibuck]

Juggalos...juggalos...juggalos

Fans will be fans. For years, UC resisted the logical and refused to join the MAC. They are in much the same position as Louisville and Pittsburgh - both schools stand a chance in the ACC or what's left of the Big 8, but they can't hang consistently with the top eight of the SEC and Big 10. They'd do all right in the ACC or the reconfigured Big 8, bet they're holding on to the hope of catching the brass ring.

 

[BB73]

Based on academic research + AAU + TV markets + football, with some consideration for "plays nice with others" (I'm looking at you, Texas), it would seem that the most logical new invitees would be Washington, North Carolina, and Florida, with Notre Dame possibly becoming the 20th school.

I think Florida and Georgia would both be obvious ‘takes’ from the SEC, and they could keep their WLOCP rivalry, if one or both switched.

That would be a ‘grand slam’ for the B1G, but I think it’s so unlikely that they’d leave their Southern roots I didn’t mention them. But quiet inquiries at the highest level wouldn’t surprise me.

As far as the other SEC schools, Vandy only has the academic side so they wouldn’t get a serious look. Could aTm and Mizzou be ticked off enough at the recent move of Texas into the SEC that they’d reconsider the B1G? The aTm culture may exclude them (I personally wouldn’t want them), and Mizzou would probably be behind at least 10 other schools before they’d get an offer.

As entertaining as such a direct broadside hit would be by taking a current SEC school, I don’t think it’ll happen in the next few years.

 

[TampaBuckeyes]

I think Florida and Georgia would both be obvious ‘takes’ from the SEC, and they could keep their WLOCP rivalry, if one or both switched.

That would be a ‘grand slam’ for the B1G, but I think it’s so unlikely that they’d leave their Southern roots I didn’t mention them. But quiet inquiries at the highest level wouldn’t surprise me.

As far as the other SEC schools, Vandy only has the academic side so they wouldn’t get a serious look. Could aTm and Mizzou be ticked off enough at the recent move of Texas into the SEC that they’d reconsider the B1G? The aTm culture may exclude them (I personally wouldn’t want them), and Mizzou would probably be behind at least 10 other schools before they’d get an offer.

As entertaining as such a direct broadside hit would be by taking a current SEC school, I don’t think it’ll happen in the next few years.

I wondered about A&M getting pissed, but now it looks like they want a protected rivalry with Texas in a 3-6-6 model. Maybe they think (correctly) that Texas was the big fish in the big 12, but that is far from the case in the sec. Bama, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee (historically) and to some extent florida own that conference.

 

[TampaBuckeyes]

I think Florida and Georgia would both be obvious ‘takes’ from the SEC, and they could keep their WLOCP rivalry, if one or both switched.

That would be a ‘grand slam’ for the B1G, but I think it’s so unlikely that they’d leave their Southern roots I didn’t mention them. But quiet inquiries at the highest level wouldn’t surprise me.

As far as the other SEC schools, Vandy only has the academic side so they wouldn’t get a serious look. Could aTm and Mizzou be ticked off enough at the recent move of Texas into the SEC that they’d reconsider the B1G? The aTm culture may exclude them (I personally wouldn’t want them), and Mizzou would probably be behind at least 10 other schools before they’d get an offer.

As entertaining as such a direct broadside hit would be by taking a current SEC school, I don’t think it’ll happen in the next few years.

I would say as far as value to media rights, Georgia and Florida are probably the most valuable schools in the country not in the big ten. I’d even put them over Bama LSU and ND. Simply because Atlanta and Orlando/Tampa/Miami.
22M people in florida, 10M in Georgia. Louisiana and Alabama= 5M each.

 

[ScriptOhio]

Oregon Ducks 'initiated preliminary discussions with Big Ten,' per report

The Oregon Ducks reportedly checked in on potential conference realignment, per Brett McMurphy of the Action Network. After the Big Ten added USC and UCLA to the conference, beginning in 2024, Oregon, among other schools, were rumored to be the next dominoes to fall in major conference realignment. As it stands, the Big Ten did not officially add another school or look into another school. But the Ducks reportedly started talks on their end.

“Oregon initiated preliminary discussions in Chicago w/Big Ten to determine if Ducks are compatible in B1G, source told Action Network HQ,” McMurphy wrote on Twitter.

“Outgoing UO president Michael Schill, AD Rob Mullens & B1G commish Kevin Warren not involved in any discussions in Chicago, another source said.”

Entire article: https://247sports.com/college/ohio-...iscussions-with-Big-Ten-per-report-191908413/

OK, who do you trust; McMurphy or "another source"?

 

[Zurp]

I wouldn't even presume to know how they'll do it, I just half-expect they'll arbitrarily make up conference schedules that ensure USC plays Ohio State at least 8 years out of 10, just like they did with Nebraska, to maximize the TV inventory. Somehow Nebraska and Ohio State have met eight times in eleven seasons despite never being in the same division, never meeting in a CCG, and never having a 'protected crossover rivalry.'

Not to hijack the thread, but it was a temporary protected crossover rivalry between Ohio State and Nebraska. With 7 teams in each division, they make you play the 6 other teams in your division - 3 home, 3 away. Then each team gets a protected crossover rivalry for 6 years. The exception is that Purdue and Indiana were going to be "permanent" crossover rivals. Anyway, I believe that the crossover rivals were going to be random (other than Purdue-Indiana). So for 6 years, Ohio State was supposed to play Nebraska. Other than 2020, that's how it happened. Or maybe is still happening? Is this year 6? Then, you cycle through the other 6 teams in the opposite division, playing 1 home, 1 away. So in a 6-year period, you will have played 3 home, 3 away games against everyone in your division, 3 home, 3 away against your crossover rival, and 1 home, 1 away against the other teams. Also, the protected crossover rival alternated home/away such that all the west teams were home for that game one year, and away the next year. That way, all east teams had the same number of home conference gams, and same with the west.

I suspect that with 16 teams, they'll bork the divisions and set up a 6/6/3 schedule. Every team has 3 protected rivals, then you alternate playing 6 of the remaining 12 teams. In a 4-year period, you should have played everyone once home, and once away, with the protected rivals being twice home and twice away.

If they jump to 20 teams, they may add another conference game and go with a 9/9/1 schedule.

 

[BuckTwenty]

How realistic is an SEC school flipping to the B1G though? I can't foresee that ever happening, unless it's the SEC trying to pawn off Missouri which the dixie folk are having regrets about... which in that case, no thank you

To me, if what ORD says is true and Oregon & Washington want to join the conference at a partial share, I'd add both of them tomorrow. Both are AAU schools with good to great football programs that will increase the amount of quality match-ups/TV ratings and add more value to the collective pot come negotiation time. Those quality match-ups are what is going to drive up the price of media rights in the future, so that's a big deal if you can get them for partial shares to make the moves happen. They also bring solid media markets out west in Seattle (14) & Portland (22) for BTN and give the LA duo two solid adversaries out their direction

I know it's easy to look at Oregon's research endowment and balk at them as an addition, but they are a school that has shown time and time again that they are willing to invest MASSIVELY in their school to make themselves great. That's huge. Dryden also brings up an excellent point about how Nebraska has increased their research endowment by 250% in the last decade, I am sure due in large part to their affiliation with the B1G. I think the B1G investing in Oregon is smart money and could pay off big time for both sides

Now teams #19 & #20 are the ones that are much harder to come to an answer that makes sense... particularly since i have a disdain for the cancer that resides in South Bend. I'm as open minded as maybe I've ever been in the expansion process, knowing that Big Ten brass say that AAU membership is not necessarily a prerequisite and knowing how much quality match-ups drive up the price of media rights

 

[scarletmike]

At this point I'm fully onboard with saying fuck ND, wander the future wasteland of independence or join whatever other conference will have you (because the SEC schools aren't going to go for their controlling shtick, especially if Texas gets a little too comfy too quick). Prior to this round I was always hopeful they'd see the light and join, but not now. The schools that make the most sense to me out west are UW and Stanford, and to a lesser extent Cal. I understand the media interest in Oregon, but I think outside of that I would give Utah a look. I see Arizona being too tied to ASU, and I don't know how good a fit either one would be compared to the northern PAC schools, with 'Zona getting the better look I would think. I think pushing the southern border of the conference out with UNC or maybe even GT would be the only move I would be "excited" for on this side of the country. UVA and Duke are obvious considerations as well, but I don't know how much UVA really brings to the media rights revenue calculation compared to the other 3 (and with Duke it really comes down to if the basketball coverage is that valuable to split the media market with UNC). So if it's a race to 20, give me UW, Stanford, GT, and...Oregon, and then freeze ND out of playing any B1G team for a while just to rub it in.

 

[Dryden]

How realistic is an SEC school flipping to the B1G though? I can't foresee that ever happening, unless it's the SEC trying to pawn off Missouri which the dixie folk are having regrets about... which in that case, no thank you

UF was the research dollar leader of the SEC prior to Texas A&M joining. Their current benefits, now reduced to second in the SEC, would actually only place them 8th in the Big Ten. UGA falls in a similar profile, though to lesser extent. UF and UGA just have a lot more in common with the Big Ten, who are academic and research peers, than they have with any SEC schools in Alabama or Mississippi.

As I posted earlier, Nebraska has seen a nine-year over-year expansion in growth of donations and federal funds since joining the Big Ten, to the tune of a 250% expansion of research dollars and grants in just 10 years.

If the eggheads at UF and/or UGA want to draw a line in the sand and get a piece of that action, let alone the AD media dollars, Kevin Warren has to take that call.

 

[dragurd]

UF was the research dollar leader of the SEC prior to Texas A&M joining. Their current benefits, now reduced to second in the SEC, would actually only place them 8th in the Big Ten. UGA falls in a similar profile, though to lesser extent. UF and UGA just have a lot more in common with the Big Ten, who are academic and research peers, than they have with any SEC schools in Alabama or Mississippi.

As I posted earlier, Nebraska has seen a nine-year over-year expansion in growth of donations and federal funds since joining the Big Ten, to the tune of a 250% expansion of research dollars and grants in just 10 years.

If the eggheads at UF and/or UGA want to draw a line in the sand and get a piece of that action, let alone the AD media dollars, Kevin Warren has to take that call.

I mean yes if they ever make that call you take it no question. It's just I would never see them making that call. 3 teams in the SEC might Missouri nope. Texas A&M cause they are pissed off at Texas or Texas cause they think they are a special snowflake. And while Money probably says take all 3 culture to me would say hell to no.

Also Oregon is an interesting case. Yes B1G loves research but the PAC 12 is no slouch there either and they are bottom of the barrel below the Dregs of Oregon State and Wazzoo. So will the B1G raise there profile? I dunno but otherwise they fit. And Phil can leave them a few billion in a will and keep them going for Decades.