Big Ten and other Conference Expansion

[dragurd]

Yeah Notre Dame to many of the recruits they are going after now no longer holds any mystique beyond being a good school and a decent football program. Hell it's not even as though the mystique has faded with fans it's that the more modern ones it was never there at all. The longer notre dame continues to be mediocre at best. The more any protege they had once erodes. And they fall in danger of becoming like the service academies without the military tradition.

 

[Gatorubet]

Freek

 

[PlanetFrnd]

It's called timing. The timing just isn't right at this moment. In the B1G's case, this is a lifelong commitment.

There are way too many question marks at this time that make the targets that the B1G craves too hard to get at the moment. But, with time things may/will open up.

#1 - Does the Longhorn network work? Right now it is a bust. Besides a few small outlets, who even gets the network let alone watches it. If ESPN keeps demanding high fees and keeps striking out, how quickly does ESPN try to buyout the contract or re-negotiate it? OR, maybe it becomes a huge revenue source. Right now Texas thinks it will be a boom, but if it becomes a bust, they might be more willing to play ball.

#2 - How much bigger does BTN become? Face it, the BTN is still growing and as it gets bigger, it will make the B1G that much favorable of a destination.

#3 - How does the Pac12 Network do? While they own 100% of the network versus BTN owning 49/51%, they also don't have a rabid fan base like the BTN does, so ratings/cable fees may be lower. Plus owning 100% of the network means startup costs could be staggering. Does it start turning a profit as quickly as BTN? How high is the ceiling? If it turns a profit quickly and with 100% ownership starts giving them crazy money, then they have a decided edge in the expansion game. BUT, I just have a feeling since they have 100% ownership PLUS a less rabid fan base, they may have tougher sledding. Afterall, IF Texas is a prime candidate, the Pac12 is the B1G biggest competitor for them.

#4 - NBC/Notre Dame TV Deal. So how much does NBC pay a Notre Dame that can barely win 7 games a year? Do their ratings keep going down? Or does NBC (or maybe another network) ponies up money to keep the party going?

#5 - The wildcard... The B1G TV Contract Negotiation. If the Pac12 is worth $3billion over 12 years, how much is the Big10 worth??? The B1G has the 3 most popular teams, biggest fan bases and combination of huge media markets and population. The contract is up in 4-5 years. How big can this contract get? Safe to just double the Pac12 deal? And that is just by standing pat. Heck, in 4-5 years what does TV look like? Do we even need to sell these rights to ABC/ESPN. Or some combination like only selling 2 games a week to ABC/ESPN (or Fox/CBS/NBC whoever) and then add more games to an expanded BTN?

Think of this, all these recent TV deals finally caught up to the B1G contract they signed back in 2006? We are not just talking about a ton of money... we are talking about a shitload of money... heck, we are talking about being able to buy and sell every other college out there type of money.

What if the B1G waits til 2016 to expand... AFTER the new TV deal is signed that basically pays the B1G twice as much as anyone else gets? While everyone is in the $20 million per year range, the B1G gets $40 million per year?

That gives the B1G the upperhand on everything. Right now it seems like everyone is making similar money with all the new contracts. While I am sure Delany is painting this picture now telling the teams he wants how much money the B1G will be rolling with in 5 years... that is still 5 years away. While you can sell on what will happen, you have better leverage the day after that new TV rights deal is signed and you can show them proof that they can double their TV money by going to the B1G.

I can't imagine why the B1G would get twice as much money for exactly the same product. If they want more money, they go out and make accretive acquisitions.

Now I do understand that the terms the B1G got from Fox are a bit inside of the current market for what ESPN is giving conferences, but ESPN's stake in this is bigger than the sum of its conference TV deals, and the synergy depends on what percentage of college football it can control, hence the back-room deals to get more teams into its contracted conferences and the "subtle" battle against the B1G.

I don't believe that the B1G needs to consider the success of the LHN, the Pac12 network or ND's NBC contract at all... the B1G network works, its proven, its popular, it pays, but in order to reach more homes, they need to convince regional carriers that their respective coverage areas contains interested subscribers.... which is why the ad nauseum coversation about Rutgers exists.

Basically the only thing I agree with you, albeit with caveats, is that timing is everything. If/when the time is right to get the right team, the B1G will make its move. What I like about Delaney is that he's willing to wait for the right teams, and glad to see him not panic after Pitt and Syracuse went to the ACC. I also like that he's not out in front of cameras fumbling this up for the B1G.

Either way, that the timing isn't good now doesn't address my post you quoted - based on what you said, its not clear whether you think superconferences are good or not...

 

[PlanetFrnd]

This is how I feel as well. The timing isn't right for a lot of reasons. I think some of the tweener schools have a chance at becoming national brands if you give them another decade or two of success. What will it mean for college football if Boise State plays for and wins a national championship this year? Only time will tell. But this is the kind of thing that I think major conferences are trying to stave off. They want to protect their brands long term. To do that, you have to prevent the little guys from stealing some of your pie.

Yeah, but... who cares?

I want "traditional" powers to succeed as little as I want "tweener" schools. Why should I care about anything that does not benefit Ohio State?

 

[Dryden]

The biggest loser in that regard is Notre Dame, imo. For years, they portrayed themselves as giant killers to attract bandwagon fans along with an older, mainly Catholic base. Younger Catholics don't have the same alliegence to the Catholic universities as they did in 1950, and many of their old fans from Pre-1980 are dying off, so now Boise is taking the giant killer role, and people are on their bandwagon.

You also have to follow the population trends.

In 50 years, there will probably be more truck drivers in the US than Catholics.

 

[Woody1968]

Yeah, but... who cares?

I want "traditional" powers to succeed as little as I want "tweener" schools. Why should I care about anything that does not benefit Ohio State?

Because Ohio State is a traditional power.

 

[Woody1968]

You also have to follow the population trends.

In 50 years, there will probably be more truck drivers in the US than Catholics.

I think the ratio will be the same, since neither demographic seems to favor birth control.

 

[Muck]

Handrails?

Our new 'Husker in laws learn fast.

 

[sepia5]

Penn State

Our new 'Husker in laws learn fast.

I prefer the Fighting Golf Carts.

Ride on!

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Penn State

Our new 'Husker in laws learn fast.

All that proves is that he didn't actually go to Nebby.

That would make him a subway alum in most places. In Nebraska, I think they're called "Covered Wagon Alums"

Whatever, pour me a drink.

 

[Piney]

I can't imagine why the B1G would get twice as much money for exactly the same product. If they want more money, they go out and make accretive acquisitions.

Now I do understand that the terms the B1G got from Fox are a bit inside of the current market for what ESPN is giving conferences, but ESPN's stake in this is bigger than the sum of its conference TV deals, and the synergy depends on what percentage of college football it can control, hence the back-room deals to get more teams into its contracted conferences and the "subtle" battle against the B1G.

I don't believe that the B1G needs to consider the success of the LHN, the Pac12 network or ND's NBC contract at all... the B1G network works, its proven, its popular, it pays, but in order to reach more homes, they need to convince regional carriers that their respective coverage areas contains interested subscribers.... which is why the ad nauseum coversation about Rutgers exists.

Basically the only thing I agree with you, albeit with caveats, is that timing is everything. If/when the time is right to get the right team, the B1G will make its move. What I like about Delaney is that he's willing to wait for the right teams, and glad to see him not panic after Pitt and Syracuse went to the ACC. I also like that he's not out in front of cameras fumbling this up for the B1G.

Either way, that the timing isn't good now doesn't address my post you quoted - based on what you said, its not clear whether you think superconferences are good or not...

Why the B1G might get twice as much as the Pac12? It's all about ratings, and the B1G are rating goldmines (rabid fan base + lots of them). The Pac12, not so much. So historically, the B1G probably have come close to doubling their TV contracts in the past.

Throw in the current market with TV deals. The networks have realized in the DVR age that live programming is golden and it seems like they are wanting to pay for it. Just imagine what that will look like in 5 years.

Another reason is the B1G will be one tough negotiation which will mean the price will go up. ABC/ESPN will not want to lose a mainstay in their programming and there will be other networks wanting to steal that away. Mainly Fox, and Fox is probably the big competitor, especially being partners on BTN and they can see the money flowing through that network. And Delany will make them pay through the nose, because by then he will have a proven network with the BTN that can scare up the bidding even higher.

Will it be double the PAC12 deal? I recall some analysts when the PAC12 deal was done that asked if the B1G could double that deal when their right fees came up, and some of them said it could be close.

And why care about the Longhorn Network, Notre Dame's deal and the Pac12 network? Well, if Notre Dame & Texas are targets, you want to know their situation better. Right now they are hard to crack, but in 5 years they might be ripe for the picking. And you have to watch what the Pac12 network does because they are direct competition to get Texas. Because if the Pac12 Network does well, the monetary difference might not be big enough for Texas to go to the B1G.

So basically while the B1G might dwarf everyone else in money, if the Longhorn network works how Texas is dreaming it can be, that money will be big enough not to need to go to the B1G, and if Notre Dame gets a big boost in contract money, it might not need the B1G either, or allow them to go to the ACC.

 

[Muck]

You also have to follow the population trends.

In 50 years, there will probably be more truck drivers in the US than Catholics.

Not true. Truck drivers will be extinct...it'll all be high speed rail conductors.

 

[PlanetFrnd]

Our new 'Husker in laws learn fast.

Helpful.

Because Ohio State is a traditional power.

yeah. got it.

thought my post was pretty obvious, but guess not

 

[dragurd]

If notre dame gets a big boost the networks are dumber then previously thought and that would be hard to imagine.

On a related note the Big12 is the biggest pack of dysfuction/battered wife syndrome that I've seen and I'd be surprised if this is anything other then a short stay of execution.

 

[Woody1968]

If notre dame gets a big boost the networks are dumber then previously thought and that would be hard to imagine.

On a related note the Big12 is the biggest pack of dysfuction/battered wife syndrome that I've seen and I'd be surprised if this is anything other then a short stay of execution.

I fully expect the same shit next year.