September 19, 2011, 2:24 pm
The Geography of College Football Fans (and Realignment Chaos)
By
NATE SILVERSurveys
find that about one-quarter of the United States population, or between 75 and 80 million people, follow college football regularly. But which teams do they align themselves with?
This question is not easy to answer, but we're going to make an effort to resolve it, and then use the results to shine a light on college football's
increasingly complicated realignment picture.
The premise of the study is this: take the
210 television media markets in the United States, figure out how many college football fans they have, and then allocate them between the
120 current Football Bowl Subdivision programs.
The first part of the problem isn't as easy as you might think, because enthusiasm for college football varies radically across different parts of the country - far more than for other sports.
One way to estimate the regional variances is to look at
Google search traffic. For instance, according to Google Insights for Search, the term "college football" is searched for about 5 times as often in Birmingham, Alabama as it is in New York City, relative to overall search traffic.
In other words, on a per-capita basis, there are probably about 5 times as many football fans in Birmingham as there are in New York. So although the New York media market is about 10 times larger, it has fewer than twice as many college football fans as Birmingham.
New York, because of its very large population, is still the largest market in the country for college football. But only barely: Atlanta has nearly as many college football fans, for instance, based on an extrapolation from the Google data, while Dallas (and even Birmingham) aren't far behind.
The second part of the challenge is dividing the fans in each market between the 120 F.B.S. schools.
Cont'd ...
If you add up these results across all 210 markets, the three most popular teams are the three that also usually have the
largest home attendance: Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. (Ohio State is ranked first in the country with about 3.1 million fans.)
These teams get to have their cake and eat it too, dominating a series of smaller markets while also scoring points in some relatively large ones like Philadelphia and Detroit - and having large enough alumni bases that they even have some reach in places like New York.
...
The only two conferences that can feel completely secure right now are the Big Ten and the S.E.C..
They're the two that have taken the most conservative attitude toward expansion over the past decade or two, waiting for programs of the caliber of Penn State, Nebraska and Texas A&M to become interested before increasing their ranks. They've been rewarded with extreme loyalty among their fan bases. In a sport where rooting interests are so highly localized, that goes a long way toward explaining their success.