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- Thread starter BB73
- Start date
mross34
Rock, Flag, and Eagle
Magic Number Update
Teams that OSU still needs to lose: 20
Alabama (x2)
Texas (x2)
Texas Tech (x2)
Oklahoma State (x2)
Florida
LSU
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
BYU
Utah
Cal
USC
Penn State
Games in our control: 1
Penn State
Magic Number as of this moment: 19
Match-ups this week between two teams that both need to lose: 3
Missouri at Texas
Kansas at Oklahoma
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Magic Number maximum going into next week: 16
Match-ups the following week that will feature two teams that OSU will still definitely need to lose: 1
Oklahoma State at Texas
Magic Number maximum going into Week 10: 15
OK... There's a brief breakdown of where we're at going into this week's action. However, I've been looking at these numbers, and think I've reduced it even further. But I could be wrong. Sometimes when I look at data long enough, I stop making sense of it.
Anyways, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the current magic number by the end of the season stands at a maximum of 10.
Here's why:
At this very moment, the magic number sits at 19.
However, that's to end up at #1. We can live with 1 of those losses not coming through and finish at number 2 and in all likelihood make the title game.
Therefore, in reality, the magic number actually sits at 18 at this very moment.
Looking down the road, there are 2 match-ups that stuck out at me:
Cal at USC
BYU at Utah
These four teams appear in a match-up between two teams we need to lose only this time. Therefore, we know that 2 games will be knocked off of the magic number by these two match-ups.
That brings our magic number down to 16.
Examining the rest of the schedule, I realized I could pick out match-ups and knock one game off of the magic number for each pick, as long as I didn't pick a team more times than tOSU needed them to lose (2 for Texas, Ok. State, Texas Tech, and Alabama. 1 for everyone else.
You can pick any match-ups, as long as you follow the rule stated above. Therefore, I picked these matchups:
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Oklahoma State at Texas
Texas at Texas Tech
Alabama at LSU
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Kansas at Missouri
These six match-ups knock the magic number down to 10.
10 games... now that is doable.
Starting from 33 two weeks ago, things are looking pretty good.
Here's to hoping I'll still be wasting time at work figuring this out 2 weeks from now.
Teams that OSU still needs to lose: 20
Alabama (x2)
Texas (x2)
Texas Tech (x2)
Oklahoma State (x2)
Florida
LSU
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
BYU
Utah
Cal
USC
Penn State
Games in our control: 1
Penn State
Magic Number as of this moment: 19
Match-ups this week between two teams that both need to lose: 3
Missouri at Texas
Kansas at Oklahoma
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Magic Number maximum going into next week: 16
Match-ups the following week that will feature two teams that OSU will still definitely need to lose: 1
Oklahoma State at Texas
Magic Number maximum going into Week 10: 15
OK... There's a brief breakdown of where we're at going into this week's action. However, I've been looking at these numbers, and think I've reduced it even further. But I could be wrong. Sometimes when I look at data long enough, I stop making sense of it.
Anyways, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the current magic number by the end of the season stands at a maximum of 10.
Here's why:
At this very moment, the magic number sits at 19.
However, that's to end up at #1. We can live with 1 of those losses not coming through and finish at number 2 and in all likelihood make the title game.
Therefore, in reality, the magic number actually sits at 18 at this very moment.
Looking down the road, there are 2 match-ups that stuck out at me:
Cal at USC
BYU at Utah
These four teams appear in a match-up between two teams we need to lose only this time. Therefore, we know that 2 games will be knocked off of the magic number by these two match-ups.
That brings our magic number down to 16.
Examining the rest of the schedule, I realized I could pick out match-ups and knock one game off of the magic number for each pick, as long as I didn't pick a team more times than tOSU needed them to lose (2 for Texas, Ok. State, Texas Tech, and Alabama. 1 for everyone else.
You can pick any match-ups, as long as you follow the rule stated above. Therefore, I picked these matchups:
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Oklahoma State at Texas
Texas at Texas Tech
Alabama at LSU
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Kansas at Missouri
These six match-ups knock the magic number down to 10.
10 games... now that is doable.
Starting from 33 two weeks ago, things are looking pretty good.
Here's to hoping I'll still be wasting time at work figuring this out 2 weeks from now.
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BB73;1289548; said:
Bill: I just wanted to add Michigan to your list in order to see their loss to Toledo in red letters.
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mross34;1290618; said:Teams that OSU still needs to lose: 20
Alabama (x2)
Texas (x2)
Texas Tech (x2)
Oklahoma State (x2)
Florida
LSU
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
BYU
Utah
Cal
USC
Penn State
. . . Anyways, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the current magic number by the end of the season stands at a maximum of 10. . .
Examining the rest of the schedule, I realized I could pick out match-ups and knock one game off of the magic number for each pick, as long as I didn't pick a team more times than tOSU needed them to lose (2 for Texas, Ok. State, Texas Tech, and Alabama. 1 for everyone else.
You can pick any match-ups, as long as you follow the rule stated above. Therefore, I picked these matchups:
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Oklahoma State at Texas
Texas at Texas Tech
Alabama at LSU
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Kansas at Missouri
These six match-ups knock the magic number down to 10.
10 games... now that is doable.
Starting from 33 two weeks ago, things are looking pretty good.
Here's to hoping I'll still be wasting time at work figuring this out 2 weeks from now.
This whole research and communication is GPA worthy.Thanks 34 for the investment of your time and thought into a clear, concise breakdown of what needs to happen to get to the BCS.
Hope in two weeks we are still able to speculate.
Couple of thoughts on the breakdown you made that maybe not as critical for TOSU chances.
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State chances may be finished with just one more loss, especially if they don't make it to the B12 tourney.
Could also conceive that TOSU winning out does not require Vandy, Kansas, Utah or California to get another loss.
Again with you, I just hope that "doable" things shake out over the next couple weeks and Go Bucks.
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MrCodeDude
All-American
I think once Texas Tech or Oklahoma State loses a game, they'll fall back behind the Buckeyes. And don't forget that a decisive win over a top ranked opponent (#3 Penn State) can still propel us a few spots over teams that are stalling (read: Ohio State right now).mross34;1290618; said:
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NateG
Can't waste the day when the night brings a hearse
ESPN'S Mock BCS standings (Week 7)
Team Avg.
1. Texas. 990
2. Alabama 959
3. Penn State 885
4. USC 758
5. Texas Tech 726
6. Oklahoma 714
7. Oklahoma St. 712
8. Florida 662
9. Utah 638
10. Georgia 612
11. Ohio State 591
12. BYU 573
These numbers are produced by a calculation of point values from the coaches' poll, the Harris Interactive poll, and five computer ratings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey and Sagarin). The best and worst computer ratings for each team are eliminated. A sixth computer rating (Wolfe) is part of the BCS formula but is not yet being published.
Looking at this with a projection win against PSU(ending in top 10) and the teams that play each other ahead of us, 7 weeks(8 with conf champ) and a possible 10 teams in front should be no match to 2 weeks(3 with conf champ) and 8-10 teams in front from last year.....right?
Team Avg.
1. Texas. 990
2. Alabama 959
3. Penn State 885
4. USC 758
5. Texas Tech 726
6. Oklahoma 714
7. Oklahoma St. 712
8. Florida 662
9. Utah 638
10. Georgia 612
11. Ohio State 591
12. BYU 573
These numbers are produced by a calculation of point values from the coaches' poll, the Harris Interactive poll, and five computer ratings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey and Sagarin). The best and worst computer ratings for each team are eliminated. A sixth computer rating (Wolfe) is part of the BCS formula but is not yet being published.
Looking at this with a projection win against PSU(ending in top 10) and the teams that play each other ahead of us, 7 weeks(8 with conf champ) and a possible 10 teams in front should be no match to 2 weeks(3 with conf champ) and 8-10 teams in front from last year.....right?
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rocketman
flying low
JXC;1292596; said:
The good thing is they play each other. The bad thing is it's at the end of the season.
However, if we win out, we'll jump Utah. We'll have beaten a few ranked teams, and (biggest shocker of the season) our Minnesota victory keeps looking better. They could conceivably go undefeated the rest of the season - Purdue, NU, UM, UW, and Iowa - missing out on PSU and MSU.
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Derek2k3
Banned
rocketman~
You made my day:) I hadn't even thought about Minny winning out, that would be great! Especially if PSU and MSU all keep winning after the Bucks beat them.
We also may get the benefit of the doubt a little because the injury to Beanie hurt us against USC. In fact, they were talking on ESPN a few days back about how much they want to see a rematch in which the Bucks are healthy.
You made my day:) I hadn't even thought about Minny winning out, that would be great! Especially if PSU and MSU all keep winning after the Bucks beat them.
We also may get the benefit of the doubt a little because the injury to Beanie hurt us against USC. In fact, they were talking on ESPN a few days back about how much they want to see a rematch in which the Bucks are healthy.
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RugbyBuck
Our church has no bells.
This is the kind of speculation that drives me crazy. There is NO way that we will play in the BCS, period. I would love to get back to the game, but we won't because of the backlash from the last two years and because we don't deserve and aren't ready to be there this year. I hate to agree with anyone in the SEC about anything, but we are overrated if we're even part of the discuission this season. We could not even score an offensive touchdown against Purdon't and barely beat the Badgers. This is not our year. In fact, the worst thing that could happen is our backing into the NC game like last year and having our ass handed to us again. Let's concentrate on beating MSU.
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NateG
Can't waste the day when the night brings a hearse
I like how people come on here with there pessimistic views not understanding that this thread was started for:
a. fun
2. fun
f. is for fun
Regardless of nc game bcs game outback bowl or whatever there are 8 weeks of cfb left prior to bowl games. Part of the fun left is watching for upsets and trying to be optimistic going towards next year that could be a hungrier, more athletic, and new mindset version of Ohio State football in which with a top 5 bcs finish(which we should still track our progress towards) would set us up for a national perspective boost and a "shot" at a bcs title shot next year. That being said whatever happens, I know many are jaded at our previous performances in nationally hyped matchups of late, I believe that alot of the matchups we would hit in the bcs really wouldnt change our approach to those games and any of those teams could come in flat or hyped so... there is way too much season left and things can change Go Bucks, beat sparty and Joe Pa and give it all you got boys for those returning seniors. And if not get that momentum going for next year.
a. fun
2. fun
f. is for fun
Regardless of nc game bcs game outback bowl or whatever there are 8 weeks of cfb left prior to bowl games. Part of the fun left is watching for upsets and trying to be optimistic going towards next year that could be a hungrier, more athletic, and new mindset version of Ohio State football in which with a top 5 bcs finish(which we should still track our progress towards) would set us up for a national perspective boost and a "shot" at a bcs title shot next year. That being said whatever happens, I know many are jaded at our previous performances in nationally hyped matchups of late, I believe that alot of the matchups we would hit in the bcs really wouldnt change our approach to those games and any of those teams could come in flat or hyped so... there is way too much season left and things can change Go Bucks, beat sparty and Joe Pa and give it all you got boys for those returning seniors. And if not get that momentum going for next year.
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