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BCS Title Contenders (Can tOSU get there?)

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RugbyBuck;1293032; said:
This is the kind of speculation that drives me crazy. There is NO way that we will play in the BCS, period. I would love to get back to the game, but we won't because of the backlash from the last two years and because we don't deserve and aren't ready to be there this year. I hate to agree with anyone in the SEC about anything, but we are overrated if we're even part of the discuission this season. We could not even score an offensive touchdown against Purdon't and barely beat the Badgers. This is not our year. In fact, the worst thing that could happen is our backing into the NC game like last year and having our ass handed to us again. Let's concentrate on beating MSU.
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I agree with pretty much everything you say here. With that, it's still fun to see what would have to happen for us to get back in the title picture. It makes the other games a hell of a lot more fun to watch. :wink2: After watching that Texas and Oklahoma game last week I just don't think we are "there" quite yet. Now, if we can win out (which would require beating some very solid ass teams along the way, teams who, with the exception of Penn St, aren't getting much love), this thought changes a bit.

Trust me man, I'm completely cool with a Big Ten title and a Rose bowl berth this season.
 
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NateG;1295429; said:
please mark byu done...:biggrin:
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That had been done almost an hour before your post. When teams lose, they get red behind their name in post #1, and if it's appropriate, they get moved to the bottom of the post.
 
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To RugbyBuck's point, I believe we are ranked exactly where we should be ranked. But, this is all in good fun.

TCU over BYU was awesome. A complete beatdown will have anyone second guessing the Cougars chances at a BCS berth. They're toast. Thank you TCU!

I'm again making the assumption that beating anyone except for PSU won't do anything to our rankings. So:

IF WE WIN ON SATURDAY...

  • #16 Kansas over #4 Oklahoma. I'll say KU has to blow out OU for the Sooners to drop below us. Unfortunately KU would jump us, but KU has other opportunities to lose.
  • Texas A&M over #7 TTU. Ehhh, highly unlikely. The Aggies are terrible. Such an outcome, however improbable would be the best for us.
  • WSU over #6 USC. I don't know why I'm even listing this, considering WSU might be one of the worst teams in CFB at any level, but USC has a tough time beating 40+ point dogs so maybe it's worth mentioning.
  • #1 Texas over #11 Missouri. Just so nobody is talking about the Tigers anymore. Normally you'd want the upset, but a Mizzou victory would keep both teams ranked ahead of us, unless it's a blowout.
  • SC over #13 LSU for good measure. Just so we don't have to deal with those other Tigers, unless they win the SEC.
The best teams to root for are those that are capable of beating anyone if they play their hearts out, yet are not focused enough on a week to week basis to consistently win. Oregon State was like that. I hope Kansas is the same.
 
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rocketman;1295969; said:
To RugbyBuck's point, I believe we are ranked exactly where we should be ranked. But, this is all in good fun.

TCU over BYU was awesome. A complete beatdown will have anyone second guessing the Cougars chances at a BCS berth. They're toast. Thank you TCU!

I'm again making the assumption that beating anyone except for PSU won't do anything to our rankings. So:

IF WE WIN ON SATURDAY...

  • #16 Kansas over #4 Oklahoma. I'll say KU has to blow out OU for the Sooners to drop below us. Unfortunately KU would jump us, but KU has other opportunities to lose.
  • Texas A&M over #7 TTU. Ehhh, highly unlikely. The Aggies are terrible. Such an outcome, however improbable would be the best for us.
  • WSU over #6 USC. I don't know why I'm even listing this, considering WSU might be one of the worst teams in CFB at any level, but USC has a tough time beating 40+ point dogs so maybe it's worth mentioning.
  • #1 Texas over #11 Missouri. Just so nobody is talking about the Tigers anymore. Normally you'd want the upset, but a Mizzou victory would keep both teams ranked ahead of us, unless it's a blowout.
  • SC over #13 LSU for good measure. Just so we don't have to deal with those other Tigers, unless they win the SEC.
The best teams to root for are those that are capable of beating anyone if they play their hearts out, yet are not focused enough on a week to week basis to consistently win. Oregon State was like that. I hope Kansas is the same.
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If KU beats OK then we'll be above the Sooners. Pollsters do not look fondly on teams that lose consecutive games, no matter whom you play.
Good point on the Texas-Mizzou thing.
Also, Texas Tech is not that great, they are one of those "Could lose every week" teams. I'm not concerned about them or Ok-State.

Just my thoughts...:oh:
 
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OK, here are the obligatory mentions:

"tOSU has to focus on Penn State, because unless they win that game, any title game talk is completely meaningless."

"They need to play one game at at time."

"The pollsters will do whatever they can to avoid tOSU in the title game again."

OK, now that those are out of the way, here's the current scenario.

In my opinion, tOSU needs 3 of the following 4 things to happen to get to #2 in the final BCS Rankings:

1. The SEC CCG winner needs to have 2 losses
2. The Big 12 CCG winner needs to have 2 losses
3. USC needs another loss
4. Oklahoma needs another loss (pollsters would pick a 1-loss, non-Division winner over 1-loss tOSU, even in a rematch with Texas)

With the above being true, the 'magic number' is now 11. That's how many losses are needed to get tOSU to BCS #2 behind an undefeated Texas or an undefeated Alabama.
Teams that need to lose twice for tOSU to end up above them:

Team (Losses, tough games left)
Alabama (at Tenn, at LSU, Auburn, SEC CCG)
LSU (at Fla, Georgia, Bama, SEC CCG)
Georgia ('Bama, at LSU, Fla, at Auburn, Ga Tech, SEC CCG)
Florida (Ole Miss, 'at' Ga(Jax), at Vandy, at FSU, SEC CCG)

Texas (Okie St, at TTech, at Kansas, B12 CCG)
Texas Tech (at Kan, Tex, Okie St, at Okla, B12 CCG)
Oklahoma State (at Tex, at TTech, at Colo, Okla, B12 CCG)
Oklahoma (Tex(Dallas), at K St, Neb, TTEch, at Okie St, B12 CCG)

USC (at Oregon St, at Ariz, Cal)

Teams that may need to lose once more for tOSU to end up above them:
Penn St. (plays at tOSU, other games don't really matter for tOSU)

Utah (at New Mex, TCU, BYU)

Note: tOSU will probably be behind Utah and ahead of LSU when the BCS standings come out today. But if LSU wins out, they'll jump tOSU, and if tOSU wins out, they'll jump Utah; so I'm stating the "3 out of 4" thing above as what tOSU needs to make the BCS Title game. The number of the actual BCS ranking isn't important, it's getting 3 of those 4 things to happen.
 
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....If the Bucks had only made it look even close to close against USC, they might... I still feel like they need too many miracles (didn't I say that last November?) to get there, but...

What might make it interesting is if Okie State or Texas Tech would get by Texas. Even better if one of them got Texas and the other got Oklahoma. There's nothing to look forward to from Missou and Kansas and the Big 12 Shampionship game. The 'S' is deliberate.

The SEC will self destruct. There is such a thing as too good for their own good. And if they screw each other out of the big game before the Shampionship game, they''ll screw it up in December.

I just don't see USC screwing up again given the state of the rest of the Pac 10. That, of course, is the source of their problem. It's USC and nothing. Their SOS will become a problem. They've got to hope ND keeps winning.
 
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It is worth noting that OSU had already been ahead of USC in some of the computer rankings (Sagarin, Colley) before this weekend and will continue to move up due to SOS. OSU has five of Sagarin's Top-21 teams (by ELO ranking) on the schedule (Minn, MSU, NW, USC, and PSU), with Troy moving up to #27. USC has one (OSU). The other OSU, which USC lost to, is ranked 28.

I know the computers don't weigh too heavily anymore with the most recent changes to the BCS, but it's worth following if the human votes come down very closely with USC 2 & OSU 3. If the computers had a consensus of OSU 2 and USC 5 or 6 or so forth, that would give OSU a window into the title game even if USC wins out.

I think the best case for OSU is to take care of business, watch the SEC cannibalize itself, and see Texas run through the remaining Big XII schedule unbeaten.
 
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As far as USC is concerned, I still hold out hope for one game and one game alone.


UCLA

2 years back it was all but cemented that OSU would play USC in the title because all USC had to do to be in was beat UCLA. That UCLA team was not that good but they showed up to play because that was all they had that season. With Ricky boy showing up there, the school put out that advsertising piece about the LA football dynasty being over and essentially saying that there season rests on beating USC. I for one want any USC win to look like the one this weekend and if the are going to lose great. Because when they go down the street to UCLA they will have a dogfight on their hands regardless of records and especially if they are in the title picture. So I for one arent that concerned with USC, I am a bit more concerned that their wont be a 2 loss sec team and or b12 team.

Beat PSUck!!!
:oh:
 
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By the looks of the first BCS polls OSU may not have as big a mountain to climb...

ESPN - College Football BCS Standings, NCAA College Football BCS Standings, NCAA Football BCS Standings

9th overall- .0722 from #5 in total points for bcs (one spot in poll jump in harris and coaches would give that) and .0172 from # 7

5th in the comps- will go up with psu(bcs #3)/northwestern (bcs #22) wins and minnesota(bcs # 24)winning out besides against NW

10th on each poll(with wins would definitely go up, along with cannibalization of b12 and sec) could also get bump from voters with new life shown due to beanie and prior and pumped defense


interesting points
flor-12 in comps...im sure it'll go up but still

usc-10 in comps...im sure will go down

lsu- t-19 in comps...should go up

ok st- 3 in comps

big ten outside of psu gets a 5-7 point higher rank from comps compared to polls

games that help out rank with us winning

#3 psu vs #9 osu
#1 tex vs #6 ok st(with ok st losing is a for sure jump for us)
#7 georg vs #13 lsu(if lsu wins we are in front of both)
= 2-3 poll spots at least(no unforseen upsets)

maybe we are overrated...maybe we shouldnt go the the game again... maybe the voters hate us(the money we bring may beg to differ)... maybe we should hope for a good bowl matchup instead... but if we win out and do it impressively I believe we will be in the title hunt
 
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A caller on Rivals Radio today brought up the idea that Oklahoma could play Texas in the National Championship game. First, I think Alabama and Penn State need to lose. Hopefully, Ohio State takes care of Penn State. Alabama likely has tough games coming sometime, though I don't know their schedule. Texas and Oklahoma, of course, need to take care of business.

Then, I think there's the issue of Michigan in 2006. I think a lot of voters would want to avoid the re-match, if possible. Oklahoma would have to smoke through the rest of their schedule - no near-misses. USC might need to lose another game, as would Alabama (second loss), Florida, LSU, maybe even Ohio State. Oklahoma State would be out because Oklahoma wins the rest of their games (per my previous statement), and Oklahoma State won't leapfrog Oklahoma if Oklahoma wins that game.

Hm. I'm probably missing something else.

It might be interesting to see a re-match. But I also don't really like the idea.
 
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The case for a rematch gets even weaker when you considered OU wouldn't even have won their division, nonetheless their conference, if they ended up playing Texas. OU is done, plain and simple. Texas has to lose two games in their division for OU to be back in the conference championship picture.

Florida, Georgia, and Alabama control their own destiny. If one of those teams wins out they are SEC champs at the cost of the other two teams. The same goes for TTU, UT, and the other OSU.

Where things get messy is where you put USC. However, I think USC is done because their SOS is very weak, and their conference so bad that the back end of their schedule doesn't give them any opportunity to advance.
 
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