BCS Title Contenders (Can tOSU get there?)

[fourteenandoh]

If the second loss comes against a PAC-10 school then USC will have two conference losses. I assume that there will be a PAC-10 team with one loss that will be the conference champ at that point. Loosing the PAC-10 should all but disqualify USC.... as much as that would annoy the college football world.

u can't go if you don't win your conference right? good point.

 

[BrutusBobcat]

If you look at Tellshow's BCS rankings, the biggest problem is that OSU and the rest of the B10 are getting hammered in the computers, not the human polls. The rest of our schedule simply isn't that strong, and it's going to take a lot of upsets to move us forward.

Not to knock the thread at all, but this will have a lot more relevance if events unfold in such a way as to put the Bucks in the top 10 in the BCS by the end of next weekend.

I do think that the pollsters look at number of losses and quality of losses. If the season ends up with a group of one loss teams, as it stands, the loss to USC is a bad one and would put us behind a number of other BCS one loss schools. What I don't think would happen is that OSU would end up behind two loss schools, even USC. While we love to believe that the national media exists to crucify Ohio State, that's a level of bias that's really unheard of. I'll bet all of my vCash right now that a one loss OSU team does not finish behind a two loss team in either Harris or USA Today.

Still, I think there's at least a half dozen teams that could or would finish ahead of OSU in the final polls if they have only one loss:

Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, Texas (depending on the loss), USC, Georgia and possibly Missouri would finish ahead of Ohio State if all had just one loss. That's mathematically impossible since many of them play each other, so a one loss OSU team is virtually guaranteed to be in the top 5 if there are no unbeatens.

No one loss mid-major will finish ahead of OSU, nor would a one loss Penn State for obvious reasons.

Still, it proves the point that we need a substantial number of two-loss major conference teams in order to be in the discussion, which has not happened often, historically speaking. We're basically looking for a replay of the 2001 season.

 

[Mac]

The rest of our schedule simply isn't that strong, and it's going to take a lot of upsets to move us forward.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on that one. We have the following:

#6 Penn State
#18 @ Wisconsin
#27 @ Michigan State
#31 @ Northwestern
#34 @ Illinois

I wouldn't say it isn't really tough, but 4 of the 5 are road games and that's no cupcake

 

[3074326]

Whether or not we like it or agree with it, the media and pollsters will insist on pointing to Sep 13th. We all know that we're a markedly better team now with Beanie back and Pryor at the helm, but unfortunately the powers that be still haven't forgotten the last two NC games and Sep 13th...

Agreed. The media's perception of the Big 10 is that it is weak. If we beat PSU, they were overrated and untested. If we lose, this discussion is irrelevant.

The following are what matter to the pollsters:
We're Ohio State
41-14
38-24
35-3

They don't care that we're a different team. As I've said 3140913 times on these forums, this is reflected in this week's polls. We'll have to convincingly beat the rest of our opponents and hope for all ahead of us to lose at least two games, possibly more in some cases.

 

[BrutusBobcat]

I'm going to have to disagree with you on that one. We have the following:

#6 Penn State
#18 @ Wisconsin
#27 @ Michigan State
#31 @ Northwestern
#34 @ Illinois

I wouldn't say it isn't really tough, but 4 of the 5 are road games and that's no cupcake

Unfortunately, according to the computers, those are:

#8 Penn State
#26 Wisconsin
#28 Michigan State
#17 Northwestern
#62 Illinois

My point was specifically about the computers not loving us or the teams we play in the Big Ten.

Given that we're talking about getting back into the BCS title game, and the rest of the major conference contenders have multiple games against top 10 and top 25 teams, that makes it unlikely that the computers will show us any favor, which was the point of my first paragraph. It's an uphill fight with the algorithms, and our conference isn't helping.

 

[cincibuck]

After last year's incredible ending, jumping five teams in the space of two weeks, I'm not ruling out anything. The fact that the loss was early, on the road, without Beanie and with Pryor used less than half the snaps will all factor in IF the bucks run the table. The mitigating factors will be that on national TV OSU never mounted much of anything offensively after the initial drive and the defense looked as if USC could have named the score. I don't see anyone getting out of the SEC without at least one loss and then there's the chance of a 2 loss team upseting a one loss team in their Championship game (screw the money, bad idea). Same with the Big 12.

What seems sure to me is that if Notre Dame losses only one more game, they'll be in a BCS bowl and it will be a the expense of a Big 10 team. The only way I see 2 Big 10 teams in a BCS this year is if Penn State losses to us and we beat everyone else.

 

[rocketman]

This game was fun to play last year.

IF WE WIN ON SATURDAY...

• Alabama needs to lose to Kentucky. Do the wildcats have it in them to pull off an upset like they did last year?
• Texas needs to lose to Colorado. The Buffs upset OU last year. Can they take it to the Longhorns?
• OU needs to lose to Baylor. Can the Bears do... something? Anything?
• Mizzou needs to lose to Nebraska. Can Bo Pelini fire up the Huskers?
• BYU needs to lose to- who am I kidding? They won't lose to anyone on their schedule besides maybe the Utes. Utah State doesn't stand a chance this week, but we can dream.
• USF is in the same category, their schedule is too easy for them to fail. If the Wannstache pulls off another miracle, I hope its this Thursday.
• Texas Tech needs to lose to KSU. This might be the most probable upset of the weekend.
• USC needs to lose to Oregon. Another Trojan loss doesn't help our credibility, but the best chance I see at making another title run is convincing the pollster that we are a different team and that game should be treated as a mulligan. Remember, VT was #3 at the end of the regular season, with some yahoos saying they deserve to be in the NC game over LSU even though they got their asses handed to them by the Tigers. One of the big reasons was because of Tyrod Taylor's emergence as a playmaker. Sounds familiar... (It's about as flimsy of an argument one can make, but damnit I want to believe!)

For those arguing against contemplating a NC run: This is an internet message board. The whole point of this site is to make crazy, off-the-wall arguments and have fun about it. If you don't want to think we have a shot at making it to the title game, then don't visit this thread. None of us here actually play for the Buckeyes (I hope) so idle speculation won't actually harm the team. Personally, as things stand now, I don't think we have a snowballs chance in hell to make it to Miami, but who cares? Upsets make CFB special.

Well... one down. :)

 

[OHSportsFan]

Utah losing helps in the sense that there won't be some BCS spot taken by a non-BCS team.

But it does legitimize (at least a bit) USC's loss to Oregon St., because they have put together back-to-back top 25 upsets. The more they get respect, the more USC gets respect and thus climbs back into the title picture.

Edit- game isn't over yet, getting ahead of myself.

 

[SDCaliBuck]

To me its as much about the timing of these losses too...



Until we beat Wisky and then a top 5-6 PSU team we will start to look pretty again.

Unfortunately, I think that the media will denegrate the position of UW and PSU when we beat them. That will just reinforce their opinion of just how far down the Big 10 has fallen. I don't see anyone in the media changing their mind on the Bucks.

Sad, but undoubtedly the truth.

 

[mross34]

tOSU's "Magic Number"

According to BB73's model in the first post, after last night's USF loss, tOSU needs 33 losses occur to have a decent shot to get back into the NCG.

Two of these losses, Penn State and Northwestern, are in our own control. That leaves us with 31 losses left.

This week, at least 6 of those losses will occur, due to the following games:

Kentucky at Alabama
Missouri at Nebraska
Texas at Colorado
Texas Tech at Kansas State
Oregon at USC
Auburn at Vanderbilt

tOSU needs all of the teams involved in these games to lose at least once more, therefore, regardless of the results of these games, at least 6 more will come off of the "magic number".

That will leave us at a max of 25 after this week, and hopefully some upsets will occur dropping that number even further.

All we gotta do is get better every week, TCB, and watch teams in front of us fall.

And it all starts with whippin some Badger ass this weekend.

Go Bucks. Beat Bucky.


NOTE: I'm not using "magic number" in the traditional sense of the word, as there are no standings based purely on wins-losses in the BCS.

 

[pnuts34]

I hate to say it, but that USC game was or "do or die" game! Losing that game in the fashion we did, has given voters even more reasons not to vite us into the NC. Voters didn't want us in a 3rd consecutive NC to begin with, and now they have a reason to keep us out of it which they will. It is very easy to see a 2 loss SEC or Big 12 team in the NC before us. And even with the lose to Oregon St., USC is still probably the best team in the nation, and more than likely won't lose another game so we might as well put them in one slot. But then again, thats why the games are played, but we have slim to no chance to being in the NC, we're more than likely gonna end up in the Rose Bowl.

 

[rocketman]

The three most probable upsets for the weekend based on the spread are Texas Tech at KSU (7.5), Mizzou at Nebraska (10.5), and Texas at Colorado (13.5). All road games for the higher ranked team, with Nebraska and Colorado having formidable home field advantages. If we beat Wisconsin handily, and at least Texas Tech loses, I think we crack the top 10 next week in the coaches poll. If all three win (plus an OSU victory), we'll probably be at 11 as I doubt anyone would have us jump Georgia who's idle this week.

So... with that said, Go Wildcats! (the Kansas State and Kentucky varieties)

 

[Yertle]

Utah losing helps in the sense that there won't be some BCS spot taken by a non-BCS team.

But it does legitimize (at least a bit) USC's loss to Oregon St., because they have put together back-to-back top 25 upsets. The more they get respect, the more USC gets respect and thus climbs back into the title picture.

Edit- game isn't over yet, getting ahead of myself.

Heh heh heh...

By the way, is there an official rule that you need to win your conference in order to play in the NC Game? When was it created? Obviously it's newer than 2003.

 

[BB73]

Heh heh heh...

By the way, is there an official rule that you need to win your conference in order to play in the NC Game? When was it created? Obviously it's newer than 2003.

There's no such rule. Georgia was hoping to make it to BCS #2 last year without playing in the SEC Championship Game.

 

[Yertle]

I didn't think there was a rule. Seems like there should be though. Somehow, you can be in a situation where you're not good enough to play for your conference title, but you are good enough to play for the national title. Hmmmmm... something's stinky. Maybe the NCAA should stop f-ing around with the clock rules and starting fixing the real problems.