BCS Standings & Title Game Contenders - 2010 season

[JBaney45]

Isn't the first BCS release next weekend? If so, what the heck is ESPN releasing any polls for when none of the games next week have been played? Truly idiotic move.

It was meant to be a simulation of what things would look like if the BCS was released today.

However they are still missing a part of the computer formula, and the BCS computer formulas weren't really designed to be accurate this early in the season, there's a reason they wait to release the BCS standings, the formulas are meant to give us the top 2 teams at the end of the regular season.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

It was meant to be a simulation of what things would look like if the BCS was released today.

However they are still missing a part of the computer formula, and the BCS computer formulas weren't really designed to be accurate this early in the season, there's a reason they wait to release the BCS standings, the formulas are meant to give us the top 2 teams at the end of the regular season.

I understand that, but with no reliable way to justify how they pulled that ranking out of their collective a[censored]s, the OSU fan in me is saying that this is just a cheap attempt by E$pn to create some controversy and and build up B$U. Heck, if I pulled a simulation of preseason Coaches rankings in the spring, would ESPN put that on their prime time show too?

 

[Tonyank]

I really want MSU and OSU and Oregon and TCU and BSU and Nebraska to all go undefeated!!!!! and help get rid of this Mythical NC game...Maybe???? One Day ?????



GIVE US A GOD DAMN PLAYOFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[starBUCKS]

I really want MSU and OSU and Oregon and TCU and BSU and Nebraska to all go undefeated!!!!! and help get rid of this Mythical NC game...Maybe???? One Day ?????



GIVE US A GOD DAMN PLAYOFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like the playoff option for every year we're not 1 or 2

 

[Tonyank]

I like the playoff option for every year we're not 1 or 2

agreed

 

[JXC]

Jeff Sagarin's computer ranking used in the BCS has Ohio State #23. Twenty fucking three. How the hell is that possible?

Here is his top 25...I've bolded the teams that make this poll a complete joke.

1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Michigan State
6. Oregon State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Auburn
10. Nebraska
11. Arizona
12. Nevada
13. Air Force
14. Missouri
15. South Carolina
16. California
17. Alabama
18. Delaware (FCS school)
19. Florida State
20. Michigan
21. Kansas State
22. Wisconsin
23. Ohio State
24. Virginia Tech
25. James Madison (1 loss FCS team)

The fact that this is what will be used in choosing who goes to the NCG is ugly. Granted I know it's early, and things will change as the season goes on. But the fact that computers have so much strength is a joke. How can humans think a team is #1 (using brains) and computers have them at 23.

 

[JBaney45]

I understand that, but with no reliable way to justify how they pulled that ranking out of their collective a[censored]s, the OSU fan in me is saying that this is just a cheap attempt by E to create some controversy and and build up B. Heck, if I pulled a simulation of preseason Coaches rankings in the spring, would ESPN put that on their prime time show too?

Well the formulas for each of the rankings used in the computers aren't exactly a mystery so it wouldn't be difficult to project that, albeit time consuming. They did say they were without one ranking in the computer though, so never know how that's going to skew things.

 

[pokey]

The fact that this is what will be used in choosing who goes to the NCG is ugly. Granted I know it's early, and things will change as the season goes on. But the fact that computers have so much strength is a joke. How can humans think a team is #1 (using brains) and computers have them at 23.

The BCS formula excludes the highest and lowest computer ranking for each team.

 

[JBaney45]

Jeff Sagarin's computer ranking used in the BCS has Ohio State #23. Twenty [censored]ing three. How the hell is that possible?

Here is his top 25...I've bolded the teams that make this poll a complete joke.

1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Michigan State
6. Oregon State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Auburn
10. Nebraska
11. Arizona
12. Nevada
13. Air Force
14. Missouri
15. South Carolina
16. California
17. Alabama
18. Delaware (FCS school)
19. Florida State
20. Michigan
21. Kansas State
22. Wisconsin
23. Ohio State
24. Virginia Tech
25. James Madison (1 loss FCS team)

The fact that this is what will be used in choosing who goes to the NCG is ugly. Granted I know it's early, and things will change as the season goes on. But the fact that computers have so much strength is a joke. How can humans think a team is #1 (using brains) and computers have them at 23.

Again the emphasis is on the END of the year. Computers are not capable of thinking outside the box and margin of victory is not considered. We have played most of our games at home and haven't played great opponents record wise, the computers don't give you slack for scheduling a team like Miami Fl and passing the eyeball test, playing Eastern Michigan hurts you worse then playing a Miami Fl helps you. The opponents of our opponents aren't exactly world beaters either if you look at that angle. The computers are meant to get it (close to) right at the end of the year not now, remember the computers have 0 interest in holding a team at a spot like the human voters do, these rankings will change fast and furiously, just playing Wisconsin next week should give us a nice boost.

The BCS formula excludes the highest and lowest computer ranking for each team.

Oh yea, and there is that.

 

[TheIronColonel]

It was meant to be a simulation of what things would look like if the BCS was released today.

However they are still missing a part of the computer formula, and the BCS computer formulas weren't really designed to be accurate [strike]this early in the season[/strike] at all, there's a reason they wait to release the BCS standings, the formulas are meant to give us the top 2 teams at the end of the regular season.

FIFY

 

[jlb1705]

Jeff Sagarin's computer ranking used in the BCS has Ohio State #23. Twenty fucking three. How the hell is that possible?

Here is his top 25...I've bolded the teams that make this poll a complete joke.

1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Michigan State
6. Oregon State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Auburn
10. Nebraska
11. Arizona
12. Nevada
13. Air Force
14. Missouri
15. South Carolina
16. California
17. Alabama
18. Delaware (FCS school)
19. Florida State
20. Michigan
21. Kansas State
22. Wisconsin
23. Ohio State
24. Virginia Tech
25. James Madison (1 loss FCS team)

The fact that this is what will be used in choosing who goes to the NCG is ugly. Granted I know it's early, and things will change as the season goes on. But the fact that computers have so much strength is a joke. How can humans think a team is #1 (using brains) and computers have them at 23.

Humans don't always have a stellar track record either. As JBaney said, the formulas in use are designed to be accurate at the end of the season. Ohio State to this point has played a bunch of tomato cans, so their ranking isn't going to look as good as it hopefully will after playing the likes of Wisky, Iowa, etc.

Besides, computer rankings don't carry nearly as much weight as you seem to attribute. Six different computer rankings are considered, and the high and low ranking for each team is excluded. The sum of the points from the computer rankings only accounts for 1/3 of the total, meaning each included computer ranking only accounts for 8.33% of a team's potential total. I don't care to do the math, but I think it's plausible that a handful of human voters putting OSU 3rd, 4th, or 5th could have a more harmful effect than one computer ranking them 23rd.

That's the kind of thing I'm more worried about. It's early though and these things usually take care of themselves. I think the best thing we can do as fans is to root for other top teams to lose rather than worrying about the formula. Even if the Buckeyes are ranked ahead of teams like Oklahoma, LSU, Auburn, Boise, TCU, etc., they are still stealing points here and there (not just in the computers, but in the human polls) that the Buckeyes could stand to gain by any of those teams losing.

 

[JXC]

The fact that you all are defending a ranking that has OSU at 23rd is obsurd. I know it's about where teams are ranked at the END, that's why I said that in my original post. Knowing that, I still think it's a joke. And whether you want to realize now, or later, the humans might not be enough to fix the fact that we are going to be ranked behind a lot of these teams at the END. Our SOS isn't going to get that much better with the computers, none of the teams we play are ranked that high, and Minnesota will hurt us a lot too. Right now the Big Ten isn't ranked well in the computers, and that really won't improve since we just play ourselves, and the fact that we don't play the highest ranked team in the Big Ten could hurt us too.

If this doesn't concern you, that's fine. The BCS is a joke...whether it's October or November, or January.

 

[Jaxbuck]

The BCS is just a tie breaking system. Any tie breaker is going to spit out dubious results when its applied mid season.

All OSU has to do is win out.

 

[jlb1705]

The fact that you all are defending a ranking that has OSU at 23rd is obsurd. I know it's about where teams are ranked at the END, that's why I said that in my original post. Knowing that, I still think it's a joke. And whether you want to realize now, or later, the humans might not be enough to fix the fact that we are going to be ranked behind a lot of these teams at the END. Our SOS isn't going to get that much better with the computers, none of the teams we play are ranked that high, and Minnesota will hurt us a lot too. Right now the Big Ten isn't ranked well in the computers, and that really won't improve since we just play ourselves, and the fact that we don't play the highest ranked team in the Big Ten could hurt us too.

If this doesn't concern you, that's fine. The BCS is a joke...whether it's October or November, or January.

I'm not defending the ranking, I'm saying it doesn't matter.

To wit:

Since the adaptation of the current formula, in 2004 after the hue and cry over the 2003 split championship debacle, every single team that ranked either first or second in the two human polls (AP in 2004, Harris since 2005, and the Coaches poll) played in the BCS national title game.

Let's take a look: (Coaches-AP/Harris)

2004: USC (1-1) vs. Oklahoma (2-2)
2005: USC (1-1) vs. Texas (2-2)
2006: Ohio State (1-1) vs. Florida (2-2)
2007: Ohio State (1-1) vs. LSU (2-2)
2008: Oklahoma (1-2) vs. Florida (2-1)
2009: Alabama (1-1) vs. Texas (2-2)

On the other hand, finishing first or second in the computers meant nothing. A few teams did that and ended up watching the BCS title game on TV:

2006: Michigan (T-2 in computers), lost out to T-2 Florida
2007: Virginia Tech (1), lost out to No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Ohio State
2008: Texas (2), lost out to No. 3 Florida
2009: Cincinnati (2), lost out to No. 3 Texas

http://bcsguru.blogspot.com/2010/09/do-computers-really-even-matter.html

 

[DiamondBuck]

Jeff Sagarin's computer ranking used in the BCS has Ohio State #23. Twenty fucking three. How the hell is that possible?

Here is his top 25...I've bolded the teams that make this poll a complete joke.

1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Michigan State
6. Oregon State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Auburn
10. Nebraska
11. Arizona
12. Nevada
13. Air Force
14. Missouri
15. South Carolina
16. California
17. Alabama
18. Delaware (FCS school)
19. Florida State
20. Michigan
21. Kansas State
22. Wisconsin
23. Ohio State
24. Virginia Tech
25. James Madison (1 loss FCS team)

The fact that this is what will be used in choosing who goes to the NCG is ugly. Granted I know it's early, and things will change as the season goes on. But the fact that computers have so much strength is a joke. How can humans think a team is #1 (using brains) and computers have them at 23.

I'm not familiar with Sagarin's algorithm but I find it curious that 3-2 Cal is ranked so highly. They lost to Nevada and Arizona and have beaten UC Davis, Colorado and UCLA. I would think they'd be heavily penalized for the two losses. I guess the algorithm must value losses to quality teams.