BCS Standings & Title Game Contenders - 2010 season

[BB73]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's a guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Ohio State
2) Unbeaten SEC champion (LSU or Auburn with a win in the SEC Title game)
3) Unbeaten Oregon
4) Unbeaten Nebraska or Oklahoma (with a win in the Big XII Title game)
5) Unbeaten Sparty
6) Unbeaten Mizzou or Oklahoma State as a Big XII Champion
7) One-loss Alabama as SEC champion
8) Unbeaten Boise State
9) One-loss LSU/Auburn/S Carolina/Arkansas SEC Champion
10) Unbeaten TCU or Utah
11) One-loss Ohio State
12) Undefeated Nevada.

 

[Steve19]

This sure didn't take CBS long....

New bowl projections: Ohio State-Oregon for title

That looks pretty good to me. Ohio State will need a lot of help to get back into it if they lose any of the remaining games.

The BCS formula uses the proportion of total points (25 points for each 1st-place vote, 1 point for each 25th-place vote) each team receives across the voters in the two polls. So, in a close race, being #1 may not be all that different than being #3.

If Ohio State, Oregon, and Boise State receive similar numbers of votes in the top three positions on ballots, then the computer polls become even more important, and that is Ohio State's Achilles heel this year. For the computers, the highest and lowest computer rankings are discarded, then the rankings are averaged across the remaining four rankings. Winning and losing, by Ohio State and by its former opponents, counts...not the margin of victory. Illinois will have given us a boost yesterday, Miami will have hurt us and them.

Ohio State may average #6 or worse in the computer rankings, due to the weak schedule played to date. Marshall, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan are among the worst teams we could have played.

Bottom line: Ohio State probably has its destiny in its own hands, but must keep poll voters in mind while winning out. Wisconsin and Iowa games are very important in my mind. A win at Camp Randall probably sees Wisconsin drop out of the top 25. Iowa is less likely to fall out if beaten by Ohio State. However, it is noteworthy that the Big Ten is not well represented in the Top 10.

It is in the interest of Ohio State that the teams remaining on its schedule win every game except those against other teams remaining on its schedule.

 

[MaxBuck]

I'm thinking Ohio State vs. Sparty would be pretty cool.

 

[Diego-Bucks]

I'm thinking Ohio State vs. Sparty would be pretty cool.

Absolutely, it would be a very interesting game!

 

[Diego-Bucks]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's a guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Ohio State
2) Unbeaten SEC champion (LSU or Auburn with a win in the SEC Title game)
3) Unbeaten Oregon
4) Unbeaten Nebraska or Oklahoma (with a win in the Big XII Title game)
5) Unbeaten Sparty
6) Unbeaten Mizzou or Oklahoma State as a Big XII Champion
7) One-loss Alabama as SEC champion
8) Unbeaten Boise State
9) One-loss LSU/Auburn/S Carolina/Arkansas SEC Champion
10) Unbeaten TCU or Utah
11) One-loss Ohio State
12) Undefeated Nevada.

This is probably how I would see the pecking order. Except I do think that TCU or Utah will have the schedule to bump them up onto Boise States order. Fact is, Utah will have played a more difficult schedule than Boise, and I think the voters will note that.

 

[Jake]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's a guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Ohio State
2) Unbeaten SEC champion (LSU or Auburn with a win in the SEC Title game)
3) Unbeaten Oregon
4) Unbeaten Nebraska or Oklahoma (with a win in the Big XII Title game)
5) Unbeaten Sparty
6) Unbeaten Mizzou or Oklahoma State as a Big XII Champion
7) One-loss Alabama as SEC champion
8) Unbeaten Boise State
9) One-loss LSU/Auburn/S Carolina/Arkansas SEC Champion
10) Unbeaten TCU or Utah
11) One-loss Ohio State
12) Undefeated Nevada.

One-loss Bama as SEC champion could finish as high as #2 in the pecking order. I have no doubt they would be ahead of unbeaten Sparty, Mizzou or Oklahoma State.

 

[Diego-Bucks]

One-loss Bama as SEC champion could finish as high as #2 in the pecking order. I have no doubt they would be ahead of unbeaten Sparty, Mizzou or Oklahoma State.

I don't think so, I believe that one-loss is not going to trump an undefeated Big-12, Big Ten or Pac-10 champ. I just doubt the voters will allow it to happen.

 

[JBaney45]

One-loss Bama as SEC champion could finish as high as #2 in the pecking order. I have no doubt they would be ahead of unbeaten Sparty, Mizzou or Oklahoma State.

Sparty, Mizzou and Oklahoma State would have to beat enough good teams to earn their spot above Bama imo.

 

[muffler dragon]

1) Unbeaten Ohio State
4) Unbeaten Nebraska

I'm really pulling for this "last" opportunity.

 

[3074326]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's a guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Ohio State
2) Unbeaten SEC champion (LSU or Auburn with a win in the SEC Title game)
3) Unbeaten Oregon
4) Unbeaten Nebraska or Oklahoma (with a win in the Big XII Title game)
5) Unbeaten Sparty
6) Unbeaten Mizzou or Oklahoma State as a Big XII Champion
7) One-loss Alabama as SEC champion
8) Unbeaten Boise State
9) One-loss LSU/Auburn/S Carolina/Arkansas SEC Champion
10) Unbeaten TCU or Utah
11) One-loss Ohio State
12) Undefeated Nevada.

Oh how I would love to play LSU in the title game.

Would love to see BSU too, so would could shut them up. But MSU and Nebraska would be awesome for obvious reasons. I think Nebraska is very possible.

 

[Gatorubet]

Oh how I would love to play LSU in the title game.

LSU has some great athletes. Given a month to prepare, even Les can prepare a decent game plan - and you'll have to deal with a bunch of defensive beasts. Not saying you will not win, but LSU with a month to get ready is not BSU.

 

[southcampus]

I still think Nebraska is a damn good team. I thought before the season that they were a pretender but their defense is no joke, and their offense is dynamic. Oregon has an electric offense but their defense is a big liability. We saw last year what happens to that offense against a good defense. I think us, 'bama, nebraska, and boise would run a train on them.

 

[Diego-Bucks]

I still think Nebraska is a damn good team. I thought before the season that they were a pretender but their defense is no joke, and their offense is dynamic. Oregon has an electric offense but their defense is a big liability. We saw last year what happens to that offense against a good defense. I think us, 'bama, nebraska, and boise would run a train on them.

While maybe not a train, I do think those teams would be fine against Oregon. The Ducks haven't done as much to impress me offensively that would lead me to believe they have a better, more dynamic O than what they've had in the past. I do think that their offense is great, but not definitively better than their past seasons. So I agree that, with their past trends against good defenses, they are susceptible to the other top teams. Oregon's defense still isn't dominant since they rely almost exclusively on the turnover and "big-play" which, by most statistics, is more anomalous than reliable.

 

[Buckeye doc]

LSU has some great athletes. Given a month to prepare, even Les can prepare a decent game plan - and you'll have to deal with a bunch of defensive beasts. Not saying you will not win, but LSU with a month to get ready is not BSU.

I agree. I was really surprised how good the offenses looked last night in the FLA/LSU slugfest. LSU really struggled offensively against WVU at home. Maybe the defensive strength isn't quite there relative to the last few seasons for the SEC. I think LSU has a good defense and I didn't expect FLA to put up almost 30 points on them. I have been saying all season that while Bama has a good defense it is nothing like last years, from which they lost 9 starters.

I'd still like a crack at the SEC's best this year - only way to get that monkey off our back.

 

[southcampus]

While maybe not a train, I do think those teams would be fine against Oregon. The Ducks haven't done as much to impress me offensively that would lead me to believe they have a better, more dynamic O than what they've had in the past. I do think that their offense is great, but not definitively better than their past seasons. So I agree that, with their past trends against good defenses, they are susceptible to the other top teams. Oregon's defense still isn't dominant since they rely almost exclusively on the turnover and "big-play" which, by most statistics, is more anomalous than reliable.

By run a train on them, I meant all teams would win. I've been mildly impressed with Boise's defense, especially their defensive line. I'm very impressed with Bo Pelini defenses since he's been in Nebraska. Alabama's defense is okay. Although they did give up 35 yesterday. Our defense proved it last year. It will be interesting to see the Harris Poll later today I believe.