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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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spadukins;1002435; said:
Look, I am not saying that WVU won't lose one of their remaining games and I'm not saying that LSU will lose one of their remaining games.

-BUT-

If I had to bet my next paycheck on who I thought was MORE LIKELY to lose one of there remaining games, there is no doubt in my mind, that my money would be a hell of alot safer betting on LSU to drop one. I think most knowledgable college football fans would agree with that assessment...except you obviously.:wink2:

That's all I'm saying. I'm a Buckeye fan and I want my Buckeyes to play for the title and the Big East sucks for the most part and we shouldn't count on ANY help from the likes of UConn and Pitt.

By your reasoning, all UConn and Pitt have to do is put pressure on Slaton and White and WVU will fold right up huh? Hmmmmm. Sound like easy enough of a task for Pitt and UConn. No problem at all. I sure hope they have thought of that. This coaching and game prep must be pretty easy huh? Listen guys, just stop Slaton and White and we'll win, ready break!

You are a football genius. Maybe you should apply for the opening at scUM.

Yeah, it's not as if Slaton and White haven't had any previous experience as being "go-to-guys" for WVU and having other teams trying to key on them and stop them week in and week out over the course of their entire college careers. You obviously believe that these two upcoming games will be the first time for that am I right? The first time they have faced pressure and they'll just crumble under the weight of it right?

Back to reality. This will be a tall order for Pitt and UConn especially on the road. Not saying it can't happen. Just saying don't bet your next pay check on it!

Don't get too attached to your little wish of having Les Miles face Tressel in the title game this year that you mentioned a few posts back or your stated desire to see Tennessee win the SEC so Les Miles has to eat crow about what he supposedly said about some PAC Ten doormat.

What is most important to most of us is the Buckeyes getting a shot. That's all I care about! I feel alot better about Arkansas and Georgia (or fucking Tennessee if we aren't lucky this weekend) than I do about UConn and Pitt.

Anything can happen. I'm just talking about the odds and you seem to be talking about some ridiculous personal little wish list that you want to see fulfilled for some silly bullshit reason. Good God man! Give that shit up!

Go Buckeyes!!!!
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Well let's take a look shall we?
The only players consistently doing anything near 100 yards per game? Steve Slaton and Pat White.

What happens when you hold Steve Slaton to near 50 yards only and take Pat White out of the picture? (See South Florida's victory over WVU)

Would Arkansas have a victory if it weren't for Darren McFadden? Would Illinois be where it is if it weren't for Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall?

I said if they could contain them, it would be a victory. I never said it would be easy to contain them. By pressure I meant tackles for losses. I'm sorry that wasn't clear enough for you.

I also said it would be cool if we faced LSU. Do I think it's a guarantee we're going to play them? Fuck no. We need a wing and a prayer to pull that off.

As you put it, if I had to put my paycheck on one of the games and I was forced to do so, I would pick the WVU/uConn game 1000 times before I picked the LSU/Arkansas game. I don't ever recall saying that I wanted Tennessee to win the SEC title either. In fact, if Tennessee played LSU for the title, I'd give the edge to LSU. Georgia on the other hand would be much more of a challenge.

Oh and most knowledgeable football fans picked Ohio State to finish 4th in the Big10. Most knowledgeable football fans knew we were going to blow out Florida. So "knowledge" really isn't anything but like what I posted, an opinion.

So I don't know what I did to piss you off, but whatever it was, I'm sorry. Now back the fuck off of me.
 
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This whole thing is such an f'n joke. They add another bowl game, then change the rules when it doesnt suit them.

First we have 100 bowls. Then we have bcs bowls and non-bcs bowls. Then we add another bcs bowl.........Oy, if we only had a playoff!? Either way, we look good- so I guess my little rant doesnt matter ; ) Go-Bucks!
 
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Since we've gone way off topic here I offer this little tidbit:

SEC........Baaaaad. Big Ten.......Goooood. That ought to do it!

Now for what I hope is the final volley of this minor distraction.

Coqui;1002506; said:
What happens when you hold Steve Slaton to near 50 yards only and take Pat White out of the picture? (See South Florida's victory over WVU)

I also said it would be cool if we faced LSU. Do I think it's a guarantee we're going to play them? Fuck no. We need a wing and a prayer to pull that off.

As you put it, if I had to put my paycheck on one of the games and I was forced to do so, I would pick the WVU/uConn game 1000 times before I picked the LSU/Arkansas game.

So I don't know what I did to piss you off, but whatever it was, I'm sorry. Now back the fuck off of me.
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1. WVU's South Florida loss was a road game and SF has a better defense than UConn anyway. I hope I'm wrong but UConn is probably going down hard on Saturday.

2. If LSU doesn't lose again the odds against the Buckeyes playing for the title go way, way, wwwaaaaayyyyy up! (Not as if they aren't way up there already.:wink2:) So stop wishing to play LSU would you please? We (Ohio State) don't need any misguided prayers being answered such as LSU winning out.:wink2:

3. Don't compare the WVU/UConn game with the LSU/Arkansas game when talking about whether you'd bet a paycheck. The choices would be WVU/UConn and LSU/Georgia-Tennessee since those are the tougher games the two have left to play and you knew what I meant by that analogy or at least you should have. Why the hell would I compare WVU's toughest remaining game with LSU's easiest. Come on dude.

4. I am not pissed off at you. I must also apologize because I now realize that some of this is a misunderstanding. I mistakenly combined something you said with something about that another poster said (Bobby Hoying). His was the post that I originally responded to and then you responded to my response to him and I was a work today and I wasn't totally focused on who I was responding to. My bad.

5. It appears you are kind of new to this forum. Welcome. Hopefully we can both laugh about this little back-and-forth we've had here come December 2nd. I hope. Happy Thanksgiving to you.

Go Buckeyes!!!!

P.S. Everything bad I said previously about Michigan and Les Miles, I meant that and I'm not sorry for posting it whether it belongs in this thread or not. Just so you know my heart is in the right place.:wink2:
 
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thinking arkansas has a real good shot this weekend at lsu. uconn should make it closer than the 17 point spread against w va. mizzou or kansas is out. 4 teams ahead of us. only have to get to #2 for a title shot. we're on cruise control. happy as hell to go to rose bowl, be 11-1, and beat the school up north, but it's not over yet.:oh:
 
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ytownbuckeye;1002606; said:
thinking arkansas has a real good shot this weekend at lsu. uconn should make it closer than the 17 point spread against w va. mizzou or kansas is out. 4 teams ahead of us. only have to get to #2 for a title shot. we're on cruise control. happy as hell to go to rose bowl, be 11-1, and beat the school up north, but it's not over yet.:oh:
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That is the ticket! Great season regardless, go Buckeyes! :io:
 
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for gits and shiggles

I'm not tech savvy enough to do it, but could someone link us to a pre-season prognostication from espn, cfn, cnn or etc???

I think at this time it would be fun to read about our 2007 campaign being a rebuilding year.

I would shore appreciate it!

Go Bucks!
 
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spadukins;1002174; said:
What's more likely?

LSU loses to either Arkansas at home or Georgia/Tennessee in SEC Champ.

-Or-

West Virginia loses to either UConn or Pittsburgh (Both at home).


If the Bucks are going to get to New Orleans, one of those two things HAS to happen. Period.

I'll be rooting for UConn and Pitt but damn! It's UConn and Pitt!!

Oh and if Michigan is silly enough to hire Les Miles (he's not the best option out there for scUM in my opinion and I hope they do hire him) then he'll get his proper welcome back to the Big Ten next November when he comes to Columbus and gets ABSOLUTELY CREAMED by the soon to be National Champion Buckeyes!

This 4 game win streak against Michigan, you might as well start calling it 5 because those losers are going into a major rebuilding year in 2008 and THE GAME just might get as lopsided as it has ever been.

They are coming to our house and who are they bringing with them?

Chad Henne - Gone
Mike Hart - Gone
Jake Long - Gone
Adam Kraus - Gone
Tim Jamison - Gone
Shawn Crable - Gone
Jamar Adams - Gone
B. Englemon - Gone
Chris Graham - Gone
Mario Manningham - Most likely Gone because he can't stand Mallet.

I'm having a hard time thinking of anyone they have coming back who has done ANYTHING yet that would classify him as a leader or a star player.

Arrington? Mallett? Trent? No proven go to guys coming back. Not one! Lllllloyd Carr sure knows when to tuck tail and run because next year could and most likely will get ugly for the Mays and Blew!

Let's see how brave Les Miles is. If he's smart he'll stay put. He doesn't want any of what Tressel and the Buckeyes are cooking!!!

Have a nice off season scUMmers and Les Miles go fuck yourself!!!!

Go Buckeyes!!!!
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You must not have seen the games Michigan had no chance in hell of winning, and yet won. It is The Rivalry, and talent becomes a lot less important on that glorious afternoon, and heart is the imperative.

As to Les Miles, he is from Ohio, so he obviously can coach.:) And he has shown he understands rivalries as well by his wins over Oklahoma. I think he would be a good fit for Michigan, and I personally want a strong Michigan, undefeated until the last game. And how sweet would it be for the coach of the top-ranked team in the SEC to run to the Big Ten. Would be good propaganda against the SECers.

GO BUCKS!
 
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spadukins;1002174; said:
What's more likely?

LSU loses to either Arkansas at home or Georgia/Tennessee in SEC Champ.
-Or-
West Virginia loses to either UConn or Pittsburgh (Both at home).
Click to expand...
Working from Sagarin-predictor ratings as an estimate of team strength (to produce pointspreads), and some research on football simulation (for the likelihood of a team favored by X number of points losing)... LSU losing at least one of their last two games (35%, about 1-in-3) is about twice as likely as West Virginia losing at least one (17% ,about 1-in-6).

The full calculation including all relevant games, yields a probability of 25% that Ohio State gets to New Orleans, though that probability increases dramatically (to 66%) if we can assume a leap over West Virginia in the standings without West Virginia losing. (That is only a possibility, not a certainty, so the real odds are somewhere between 25% and 66%. The less likely OSU leaping West Virginia is, the closer the odds are to 25%; the more likely, the closer to 66%.)

The full calculation is here:
OSU odds to BCS title game: 25%

I'll redo it early next week when some of the games are decided, as that will probably shift the odds again.

From that calculation, the odds of various BCS title games pairings are:

28% LSU vs Kansas
26% LSU vs West Virginia
14% Ohio State vs West Virginia
12% West Virginia vs Kansas
6% LSU vs Missouri
4% Ohio State vs Kansas
3% Ohio State vs LSU
3% West Virginia vs Missouri
3% Ohio State vs someone else (Arizona State, maybe?)
1% Ohio State vs Missouri

Note that Ohio State's most likely opponent by a factor of 3-4 is West Virginia (14%, vs 4% for the next most likely Kansas). The reason for this is that West Virginia is by far the most likely team to win out from here. As a result, it is far more likely that the Big XII North winner and Louisiana State fall out, than one of those teams and West Virginia do so.

And the chance of each individual team actually making the title game (these add up to 200% because there are two teams in the game):

LSU - 63% (should be 65, artifact of rounding intermediate numbers)
West Virginia - 55%
Kansas - 44%
Ohio State - 25%
Missouri - 10%
Someone else (LSU, WVa, KU/MU winner all lose) - 3%
 
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Just to make sure I understand the Rose Bowl scenario.. If USC wins out and shares the Pac10 title with UofO, they will be an at-large BCS team. If USC loses, then ASU would still need to beat AU to get to the Rose assuming UofO beats Oregon St. If UofO loses to Oregon St, then the winner of USC-ASU goes to the Rose if they win their last game. If ASU loses, they might get an at-large BCS invitation if they win their last game.

It'll be great to see the Bucks back in the Rose Bowl if that's where they end up. I'd most like to see them play a 2-loss USC team. So for that to happen, I think Oregon has to lose against Oregon State. :confused:
 
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