BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[HoltWVU75]

West Virginia and the Big East is a fucking Joke. They're going to get their ass handed to them in a Big Bowl game, just as they did when Major Somthing or other took them to #1 considerations a few years back. Why the polls don't correct for the weakness of the Big East is beyond me.

Oklahoma took itself out on Saturday and will end Dorthy's run through Oz, moving us up two more spots, but not before Dorthy and Toto prove that Mizzou isn't ready for prime time.

If the final choice ends up being between West Virgina and OSU I can't believe that logic won't kick in...

Course it might be nice to see Georgia beat LSU in 'lanta and putting us in Katrina land with the Mountaineers... perfect storm for another Shared BCs argument if OSU would win out and LSU would kick the doors off of Oklahoma/Kansas/USC whatever in the whereever bowl.

Gonna sit down and fire off an e-mail to ESPN about the final standings all being decided at sites which favor SEC and PAC 10 teams. See how far that puppy sails before the guys who pay the freight got all puffy and stop it.

Cinci, not to be rude...but I think I heard the same thing two years ago when we played the almighty SEC champs...i cant remember the final score, but if you dont care to google 2006 Sugar Bowl, I would appreciate it. As for the weak ass big east, how about the weak ass big 10 this year?

Not trying to argue, or make anyone mad, or start crap, etc....but if your going to dog the Big East, take a look in the mirror. We dont have the best conference, but damn, were not the dumps like people have enbedded in their heads. 4 years ago when the ACC took those teams, the big east got a shitty wrap, but good god, we have made huge strides since then. We won a BCS bowl, Louisville won a BCS bowl, big east went 5-0 last year in bowls, yes, 5-0...ZERO losses. Big East has 4 ranked teams in the top 25...thats got to count for something....

give the Big East some credit......dont have to give major love, but wake up from your shell and realize the big east is a decent conference. Oh yea, and as for the Major Harris reference, what WVU did 20 years ago surely reflects what our players will do today....(hello sarcasm)

 

[Jaxbuck]

WVU caught UGA napping and beat them by a FG. Lets not make it out to be some kind of world beating effort.

Other than that the only non Miami BCS activity I can recall from the BE was L'ville winning a close one last year vs Wake freakin Forrest and Pitt getting reamed by some mid major.

The BE is a lot better than it was a few years ago but overall its still a pretty bad league. One of the best players on the WVU defense was an absolute reject from ttun. That tells me quite a bit.

 

[HoltWVU75]

Oh im sorry, I didnt realize winning by 3 didnt count as a win. You sound like a UGA fan (well we won the last 3 quarters). caught napping, no, how about we busted their ass with 4 touchdowns to start the game. And like any other team in the history of sports with a big lead, we didnt play with the same passion and fire as the first quarter and a half. When Slaton busted that 52 yard TD int he 4th quarter, was UGA still napping? But what I just said doesnt count.

The big east has sent 3 teams to post-miami BCS bowl games. Pitt ( who sucked and lost to Utah int he Fiesta), WVU ( who's win against UGA in the Sugar doesnt count) and Louisville (who's win also doesnt count because they got paired with an ACC team). 2 wins, 1 loss.......

The Big East cant help who we play in bowl games, all we can do is go out and win. But I guess its a no win situation. You win, it was because you played a bad team or caught them napping, if you lose, its because you suck.

As for our best player. Ryan Mundy has played great for us this year, why take anything away from him? He may have sucked at Michigan, but he plays good here and thats all we can ask. Who gives a damn about what he did at Michigan. Also, hes not our best player on D. I would say Dykes and Dingle are (two DL).

 

[Jaxbuck]

Oh im sorry, I didnt realize winning by 3 didnt count as a win. You sound like a UGA fan (well we won the last 3 quarters). caught napping, no, how about we busted their ass with 4 touchdowns to start the game. And like any other team in the history of sports with a big lead, we didnt play with the same passion and fire as the first quarter and a half. When Slaton busted that 52 yard TD int he 4th quarter, was UGA still napping? But what I just said doesnt count.

Ok smart ass where in the fuck did you read me saying it didn't count? I simply pointed out the score was close and you are always running around here acting like you obliterated them. For someone who's always pulling the "I'm not here to start anything" shit you aure are quick with the nasty little sarcasam in response to shit that wasn't even said.

As for our best player. Ryan Mundy has played great for us this year, why take anything away from him? He may have sucked at Michigan, but he plays good here and thats all we can ask. Who gives a damn about what he did at Michigan. Also, hes not our best player on D. I would say Dykes and Dingle are (two DL).

Once again you illiterate fuck I said one of your best players and I hate to break it to you if a guy sucked in another league and is good in yours it reflects negativley on the level of competition in yours.

Now if you want to have civil debates then fine but if you want to keep throwing hissy fits based on things that werent even said I can guarntee you a quick trip back to whatever WV shithole message board you crawled the fuck out from under.

 

[Steve19]

Well deserved GPA Chris. Welcome and we'll look forward to your update.

 

[HoltWVU75]

Jax, geez. Calm down buddy. Im sure your not 7, so quit acting like it. The reason I was being a smart ass is because EVERYONE says we caught UGA napping. And fuck yea, I gloat about a BCS win. I cant remember the spread on the game, but Im sure it was UGA by a lot. Everyone and their brother picked against us, and it made it that much better that we won. Im sorry if I got excited about winning a BCS game.

And your right, Im sorry. I did read the Mundy statement wrong, and I apologize. But Im defending one of my players after you shit on him. Hes healthy now, has great work ethic, and a very polite guy. I understand he had his troubles while playing at Michigan, but hes playing good now and deserves some credit.

again, Im sorry to make you mad. Ill go back to my whatever WV messgage board i crawled the fuck out under after while....

p.s. Im not over here to start anything, I try to be as classy as possible, but at times, a little sarcasm doesnt hurt anybody. Unless they get really mad like you do.

 

[BB73]

Well, with Arizona St. getting nailed by USC, tOSU is not in any real danger of being jumped from behind. I also think it's unlikely that tOSU will jump a West Virginia team that wins its remaining games. It also doesn't matter to tOSU who wins the Missouri/Kansas game: the winner stays ahead of tOSU, and the loser drops behind.

I think it's simply down to needing 2 of these 3 things to happen:

1. Big 12 South champ defeats Kansas/Missou winner
2. LSU loses to either Arkansas OR the SEC East champ
3. West Virginia loses to either UConn OR Pitt

 

[Jaxbuck]

Jax, geez. Calm down buddy. Im sure your not 7, so quit acting like it.

You aren't my buddy and I've got your 7 swinging.

again, Im sorry to make you mad. Ill go back to my whatever WV messgage board i crawled the fuck out under after while....

p.s. Im not over here to start anything, I try to be as classy as possible, but at times, a little sarcasm doesnt hurt anybody. Unless they get really mad like you do.

I thought you were gone for good after our last little exchange. Remember you running this act because I said your team was shit and USF was going to beat you? You stayed away a long time after that, what made you crawl back out from under now? Think your one trick pony team is going to grab a NC all of a sudden?

Bad news, you have to beat one good team to win one of those. Teams with a one dimensional offense and mediocre defense have a hard time doing that

 

[Jaxbuck]

Well, with Arizona St. getting nailed by USC, tOSU is not in any real danger of being jumped from behind. I also think it's unlikely that tOSU will jump a West Virginia team that wins its remaining games. It also doesn't matter to tOSU who wins the Missouri/Kansas game: the winner stays ahead of tOSU, and the loser drops behind.

I think it's simply down to needing 2 of these 3 things to happen:

1. Big 12 South champ defeats Kansas/Missou winner
2. LSU loses to either Arkansas OR the SEC East champ
3. West Virginia loses to either UConn OR Pitt

Yup.

That what I've been saying, the real longshots happened already(Oregon and Oklahaoma getting those second losses). The rest of it is still a technically a longshot I guess but much more plausible.

The fun starts if all 3 happen.

 

[Bobcat94]

Working from Sagarin-predictor ratings as an estimate of team strength (to produce pointspreads), and some research on football simulation (for the likelihood of a team favored by X number of points losing)... LSU losing at least one of their last two games (35%, about 1-in-3) is about twice as likely as West Virginia losing at least one (17% ,about 1-in-6).

The full calculation including all relevant games, yields a probability of 25% that Ohio State gets to New Orleans, though that probability increases dramatically (to 66%) if we can assume a leap over West Virginia in the standings without West Virginia losing. (That is only a possibility, not a certainty, so the real odds are somewhere between 25% and 66%. The less likely OSU leaping West Virginia is, the closer the odds are to 25%; the more likely, the closer to 66%.)

The full calculation is here:
OSU odds to BCS title game: 25%

I'll redo it early next week when some of the games are decided, as that will probably shift the odds again.

From that calculation, the odds of various BCS title games pairings are:

28% LSU vs Kansas
26% LSU vs West Virginia
14% Ohio State vs West Virginia
12% West Virginia vs Kansas
6% LSU vs Missouri
4% Ohio State vs Kansas
3% Ohio State vs LSU
3% West Virginia vs Missouri
3% Ohio State vs someone else (Arizona State, maybe?)
1% Ohio State vs Missouri

Note that Ohio State's most likely opponent by a factor of 3-4 is West Virginia (14%, vs 4% for the next most likely Kansas). The reason for this is that West Virginia is by far the most likely team to win out from here. As a result, it is far more likely that the Big XII North winner and Louisiana State fall out, than one of those teams and West Virginia do so.

And the chance of each individual team actually making the title game (these add up to 200% because there are two teams in the game):

LSU - 63% (should be 65, artifact of rounding intermediate numbers)
West Virginia - 55%
Kansas - 44%
Ohio State - 25%
Missouri - 10%
Someone else (LSU, WVa, KU/MU winner all lose) - 3%

Wow, a GPA for his first post? That must be a BP record!
(Well deserved, of course)

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

Yup.

That what I've been saying, the real longshots happened already(Oregon and Oklahaoma getting those second losses). The rest of it is still a technically a longshot I guess but much more plausible.

The fun starts if all 3 happen.

Bring on Hawaii!

 

[osucollegebuck]

If Georgia gets to the SEC Championship and beats LSU, is there any danger in them jumping over us now? I guess ideally GA Tech beats them this weekend and they get annoyed and go beat up on LSU. Well for now Go Razorbacks tommorow.

 

[BengalsAndBucks]

If Georgia gets to the SEC Championship and beats LSU, is there any danger in them jumping over us now? I guess ideally GA Tech beats them this weekend and they get annoyed and go beat up on LSU. Well for now Go Razorbacks tommorow.

The only way a 2 loss team goes is if there are not 2 1-Loss teams in college football, and there is no way of that happening. Ohio State and Kansas are both guaranteed to finish with at most 1 loss. No worries about getting jumped by Jawja.

 

[Carmen Ohio]

The only way a 2 loss team goes is if there are not 2 1-Loss teams in college football, and there is no way of that happening. Ohio State and Kansas are both guaranteed to finish with at most 1 loss. No worries about getting jumped by Jawja.

Sorry, but if Kansas loses to Missouri they will not be in the championship game over their own conference champion.

 

[coastalbuck]

Sorry, but if Kansas loses to Missouri they will not be in the championship game over their own conference champion.

And thus they finish with one loss...