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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

Dan Wetzel's article

I posted this in the BCS Title game thread, but it seems relevant here, too.

scrawford;1014881; said:
A segment from Dan Wetzel's most recent column on Yahoo sports.

"The contenders for the BCS title game are as follows and we'll do our best to break it down with clear efficiency heading into Sunday's 8 p.m. announcement - Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Kansas, Hawaii and Southern California.

Don't blame us for the analysis, we're as impartial as you'll ever find.

Ohio State (11-1) entered the weekend at No. 3 and looks like it's in, essentially because it only lost once. Sure it only played 12 games (to most team's 13), took on a weak non-conference slate, beat no really good teams, lost three weeks ago at home to Illinois and didn't play anyone in two weeks, but in this season ? hey, step on up you're a winner, please try to play better than last year."

Here's the response I sent him:


"When you cite Ohio State's weak schedule and conference, I say good point. When you cite that they haven't played in two weeks, I say what does this have to do with the price of tea in China? When you say "most" teams have played 13 games, I say you're dead wrong.

The fact that Ohio State ended their season two weeks earlier than some teams is irrelevant. They still played 12 games. You could just as easily credit them for not having bye weeks when other teams did.

Of the 8 teams you discuss as contenders for the national title game, only 3 (LSU, Oklahoma and Va Tech) played 13 games. That's less than half, last time I checked.

I enjoy your columns, and I forwarded your playoff articles to all my friends/acquaintances because I felt you put forth a very good plan in a very well-ordered, well-explained way. I'd love to see it happen.

But I ask that when you bash Ohio State (or any other team), please stick to relevant and accurate arguments. Otherwise, you just seem like a biased Buckeye hatemonger. There are enough of those to go around already."

The full article can be read here:

Now what? - NCAA Football - Yahoo! Sports
 
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Tellshow says Ohio State Va Tech

Computer Coach's HI BCS
Rank..Team............W....L..Pts...Rank...Points...BCS...Rank...Points...Points...Points
1 ....Ohio State .....11...1..0.93...1.....1467.....0.978...1.....2779....0.975....0.9610
2 ....Virginia Tech...11...2..0.97...2.....1432.....0.955...3.....2670....0.937....0.9538
3 ....LSU.............11...2..0.95...3.....1405.....0.937...2.....2721....0.955....0.9471
4 ....Georgia.........10...2..0.79...4.....1232.....0.821...4.....2368....0.831....0.8141
5 ....Missouri .......11...2..0.86...9.....1073.....0.715...8.....2132....0.748....0.7745
6 ....Kansas .........11...1..0.73...5.....1161.....0.774...5.....2215....0.777....0.7604
7 ....Oklahoma........11...2..0.73...5.....1161.....0.774...6.....2170....0.761....0.7551
8 ....Southern Cal....10...2..0.70...7.....1134.....0.756...7.....2164....0.759....0.7384
9 ....West Virginia...10...2..0.72...8.....1126.....0.751...9.....2059....0.722....0.7310
10 ...Florida .........9...3..0.65...11.....898.....0.599...11....1757....0.616....0.6217
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1014903; said:
Tellshow says Ohio State Va Tech

Computer Coach's HI BCS
Rank..Team.......W ...L..Pts...Rank...Points...BCS...Rank...Points...Points...Points
1 ....Ohio State 11...1..0.93...1...1467...0.978...1...2779...0.975...0.9610
2 Virginia Tech 11 2 0.97 2 1432 0.955 3 2670 0.937 0.9538
3 LSU 11 2 0.95 3 1405 0.937 2 2721 0.955 0.9471


(Working of formatting)


I'd take that. If anything just to listen to Miles whine for a month :biggrin:
 
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Tellshow's Projections - Mighty Close but VT at #2 by a Nose

Tellshow has the top 4 projected thusly:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Virginia Tech
3 - LSU
4 - Georgia

Now, Tellshow is normally pretty good at these projections - but is far from infallible. Especially when the relative margins are small. Last week, for instance, Tellshow over-rated LSU's projected position in the coaches poll. At that time it resulted in a projected 5 spot being reduced to the #7 slot in the BCS.

This week, the margin for error in Tellshow's projection is razor thin.

Virginia Tech is projected to an overall lead above LSU of just 0.02 points in the computer polls. Also, the projected Coaches Poll and Harris Interactive rankings are flipped, with Coaches having VT at 2, LSU at 3, HI having LSU in the 2 spot.

As few as 7 Coaches votes, or 15 HI voters flipping from VT to LSU would overcome a 0.02 edge for VT in the computer polls.

If the computer polls are actually even closer, say 0.01, then all it needs is 4 Coaches and 7 HI voters to flip.

Highly Volatile.
 
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methomps;1014417; said:
I see you guys get your wish of avoiding us. Pretend all you want that it is about playing for the NC, but you know deep down that you are just ducking us.

There might be some truth to that except that we play LSU. I never did think Georgia had a prayer.

Either way, gonna be a helluva game, especially playing Les Smiles.
 
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Buckeyes #4 in Sagarin (ELO_Chess)....if this is the low it gets thrown out anyway.

Sagarin's (ELO_Chess) has VT #1.

BuckeyeMike80;1014841; said:
Just a guess but here is how I think the computer polls will break out....

Ohio State will have:

1 -#3 rankings - Colley Matrix

2 - #2 rankings - Peter Wolfe and Massey

3 - #1 rankings - Sagarin, Billingsley and Anderson & Hester

Of course this could change. The only one I could plug and play games into was the Colley Matrix which ends up jumping LSU to #1 and Va Tech to #2 over Ohio State at #3.

Wolfe has Ohio State at #3 last week, but Virginia Tech is RIGHT behind them. I wouldn't be surprised to see Virginia Tech jump to #1 there.

Massey has Ohio STate tied with UGA for #3. Given the funkiness that is college football this year, I think UGA might pull ahead of Ohio State there because of LSU's win. I'd be surprised if UGA Is more than .01 ahead of Ohio State but that's enough. LSU will likely be 3rd there.

Needless to say, Ohio State has a better than even chance to come out as the #1 team in the nation in the computer polls as well (lowest and highest are thown out, leaving 2 #1s and 2 #2s) and no one else will probably match that.
 
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jlb1705;1014555; said:
Maybe that's what they should say then instead of, "The BCS is not working." I can possibly get behind what you're saying, but the system that is in place IS working to the extent that it's doing what it was designed to do.

If you move to a playoff setup though, they're probably just going to use a similar mechanism to select and seed the teams. Then you just have same crap dressed up as something else, and the regular season becomes somewhat diminished (though not to the extent that some would probably argue.)
Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1014882; said:
1997: This STINKS! We need a system that gets rid of human bias. It's absolute CRAP that Nebraska is champion AND Michigan is Champion. How the hell can a single sport have TWO champions?!?!?!?!?

2007: This STINKS! We need a system that gives up what humans see so easily! It's absolute crap that we're having forced upon us a SINGLE champion out of all these undeserving teams. We should crown TWO champions....

In line with Jlb, the BCS was put in place to "get rid of" human bias. And its absurd that the objection to the BCS is it doesn't put in to the championship game whatever team the humans "want" If it's all about what humans want, go back to the old damned system.
Let me first start by saying I am completely against a playoff system. I am for an optional 4-team playoff (meaning this is not implemented on all years), and I have posted that before.

BCS was put in place to "get rid of" human biases. But 66% of the BCS are determined by human polls. As the system became more understood, voters can manipulate the system, and they have learned to do so. Urban Meyer lobbying for his team's selection and the events unfolding this year. Therefore, it is evident that the BCS has not gotten "rid of" the human bias. The BCS is not working, but again, it is far from what E-SPiN is suggesting.

What I would like is an optional 4-team playoff. Let me describe it. Here, the BCS would be used as guidelines, not the be-all end-all of rankings, and human selectors should select four teams. This year, the teams would be OSU, LSU, Georgia and Hawaii (this is just a suggestion).

Last year (2006), they would be OSU, scUM, Florida and Louisville. If Florida should've played the winner of scUM vs. Louisville, given that Florida won. Otherwise, OSU should've been crowned NC or must've had to play Louisville given they beat scUM.

Obviously, in 2004, the teams would be USC, Auburn, Oklahoma and Utah. Similarly, the Auburn vs. Utah winner should've played against USC in 2004.

In 2003, the teams would've been USC, LSU, scUM and Oklahoma. LSU and USC should've played for the NC.

In 1998, Tennessee, Tulane, OSU and Florida State should've played. If FSU had won, they should've played winner of OSU vs. Tulane. Or similar to 2006, Tennessee should be crowned champion if won against FSU or played the OSU vs. Tulane winner. You can create these scenarios during every year except 2002 and 2005.

Obviously, 2002 and 2005, there need not be a playoff. IMO this is the best solution available. There might also be a minor modificaiton so that teams like Hawaii (2006), Tulane (1998) and Boise State (2006) would've to play a qualifier team like USC, one of Arizona or UCLA, Kansas State or Florida(if I remember right), and Louisville respectively to qualify for the optional playoff. Again, keyword, optional.
 
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DDN


OSU gets another title shot ? against whom?

One BCS analyst says Buckeyes will face LSU, but five other contenders want a shot, too


By Staff and Wire Services

Sunday, December 02, 2007

In 36 days, Ohio State gets a shot at redemption.
The Buckeyes, who were embarrassed by Florida in last season's national championship game, likely will make a return trip to college football's season finale.


OSU, which woke up Saturday ranked No. 3 in the Bowl Championship Series standings, should rise to No. 1 because the last big Saturday of the college football season was pretty much like the rest of them ? nuts.
Oklahoma knocked off No. 1 Missouri 38-17 in the Big 12 title game, and No. 2 West Virginia fell to rival Pittsburgh 13-9. It was the third time in two months that Nos. 1 and 2 have lost on the same weekend. Before this season, that hadn't happened even once since 1996.

Cont....
 
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DDN

Football's BCS system leaves few people satisfied

By Kyle Nagel
Staff Writer

Sunday, December 02, 2007
Mike Slive, the Southeastern Conference commissioner and Bowl Championship Series coordinator, held a conference call to discuss the BCS. As you might imagine, he got plenty of questions surrounding the possibility of a college football playoff or a plus-1 format, in which another game is played after the BCS bowls to serve as the national championship.
The next day, I had lunch with a friend who has developed a playoff proposal that includes using the current bowls, even the lower ones, as sites for the early-round games and playing rounds two weeks apart.



Cont...
 
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