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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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1) LSU
vs. 11/17 @ Ole Miss W 41-24
vs. 11/23 Arkansas
vs. SEC Championship vs. probably Georgia

3) Kansas
vs. 11/17 Iowa State W 45-7
vs. 11/24 Missouri
vs. Big 12 Championship vs. Oklahoma

5) Missouri
vs. 11/17 @ Kansas State W 49-32
vs. 11/24 @ #4 Kansas
vs. Big 12 Championship vs. Oklahoma

6) West Virginia
vs. 11/17 @ #22 Cincinnati W 28-23
vs. 11/24 #24 Connecticut
vs. 12/01 Pittsburgh

7) Ohio State
vs. 11/17 @ #21 Michigan W 14-3

8) Arizona State
vs. 11/22 #11 USC
vs. 12/01 Arizona

2) Oregon ELIMINATED
vs. 11/15 @ Arizona L 24-31
vs. 11/24 @ UCLA
vs. 12/01 Oregon State

4) Oklahoma ELIMINATED
vs. 11/17 @ Texas Tech L 27-34
vs. 11/24 Oklahoma State
vs. Big 12 Championship vs. Kansas/Missouri

Key:
Helps the Bucks Chances
Hurts the Bucks Chances
 
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Yertle;999073; said:
So, we're basically sitting at 4th right now behind LSU, winner of Kansas/Mizzou, and WVU.

1. LSU has two tough games in Arkansas and SEC champ game (Georgia?). I'd say that they have about a 75% chance at winning each game, which means they have a 56% chance at winning out.

2. Kansas/Mizzou winner just has to win the Big 12 champ game. I assume that will be Oklahoma, and if Bradford is back to 100% (he should be), I'd say there is a 75% chance at Kansas/Mizzou winning.

3. WVU has UConn and Pitt left. I'd say they have a 60% shot at beating UConn and 90% at Pitt. That gives them a 54% chance at winning out.

So, we need at least 2 of the 3 scenarios to come true. There is a 23% of all three teams winning out (Buckeyes finish at #4), 42% chance that one team loses (Buckeyes finish at #3), a 30% chance that 2 teams lose (Buckeyes finish at #2), and a 5% chance that NONE of them win out (Buckeyes enter the NC Game #1). Basically. given these estimates on each of the remaining games, I'd say the Bucks have a 35% chance at getting to New Orleans (30% plus 5%). Not bad. Not bad at all. And it should make the next two weekends a lot of fun to watch.

Oh yeah, one more stat that I'm particularly fond of: 14 is bigger than 3!!!!
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Why would we want the Mizzou/KU winner to win the Big 12 champ game?
Also, way too much math in there. :wink2:
We need 2 of the following 3:
Oklahoma (or Texas) to win the B12 championship game.
LSU to lose.
WVU to lose.

None of the teams ahead of us are above losing in their next 2 games, and it's entirely possible we'll wind up #1 and playing a 2 loss Georgia, USC or Oklahoma in the title game, or even a 1 loss Kansas who didn't win their conference.
This season has been beyond a clusterfuck in the rankings so far, and it certainly doesn't seem to be slowing down after this weekends results.
Yertle is right, the next couple weeks are going to be pretty sweet to watch.
 
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Yertle;999105; said:
Tough to say. Oklahoma looked bad for 3-1/2 quarters last night, so I don't want to get too excited about our chances.
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Our hopes ride firmly on their starting QB actually being able to play the last 2 games. I think they can take care of business with him at the helm but concussions are tricky business, who knows if he can come back.
 
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greyscarlet;999081; said:
If the big ten is smart they have the officials issue an appology for not reviewing the play in the Illinois game. They don't need to go as far as saying it changed the game (as that would be disrespectful to illi) , because the talking heads would likely fill in the blanks. The more that play gets shown on tv the more likely voters would be to jump tOSU over wvu in the polls.
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and... while we're at it, i'd give anything to destroy the first 10 seconds of espn's highlight film showing MHart's only 10+ yard carry in THE GAME yesterday to make it seem like that little poodle actually DID something to back up his trash-talking. rant rant rant...

i know... wrong thread, wrong day... time to let it go. the guy's a "never-ran".
 
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Great thread, I think I'm retarded now from reading it from the 1st page. Look boys and girl, focus on GOING TO THE ROSE BOWL!!!! We controled our own destiny, and we lost a game. Is there a chance for our buckeyes to go to the NCG, Yes! But our 2007 regular season is over, we've WON the BIG TEN Title and are going to pasadena :) Let fate decide anything else. Just dont be dissapointted, or say "we got screwed" if we dont go the BCS NCG!!!


PS FUCK WVU, KANSAS/MIZZ and LSU :biggrin:
 
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A very big mistake if you ask me
Sporting news


Big Ten may have made a very costly mistake
td.yspwidearticlebody { font-size: 13.5px; }By Tom Dienhart - SportingNews

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/sports/tsn/n...3CkXPoyVhkMvrYF/*http://www.sportingnews.com/
Did the Big Ten make a $4.5 million mistake by allowing an officiating crew that was facing a suspension this weekend to work last Saturday's Illinois-Ohio State game?
As I reported last week, a source told me the conference plans to suspend the crew that officiated the Nov. 3 Purdue-Penn State game based on a review of its work in that game. That same crew worked one of the biggest Big Ten games of the year last weekend in Columbus. Incredible. Why would the Big Ten assign the crew -- a few of whom could be fired for their work in the Purdue-Penn State game -- to a game of this importance?
 
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Best Buckeye;999123; said:
A very big mistake if you ask me
Sporting news


Big Ten may have made a very costly mistake
td.yspwidearticlebody { font-size: 13.5px; }By Tom Dienhart - SportingNews


... That same crew worked one of the biggest Big Ten games of the year last weekend in Columbus. Incredible. Why would the Big Ten assign the crew -- a few of whom could be fired for their work in the Purdue-Penn State game -- to a game of this importance?
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this is what i don't understand... who knew before last saturday that this game was going to be THIS big or wind up meaning SO much? i'm not saying that the crew did a good job, but come on... who knew? sounds like a witch hunt to me.
 
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It was stupid for them to be officiating that game, and they made some horrible calls, but I really hope this doesn't turn into sour grapes if we don't make the title game. Illinois won that game in the fourth quarter when our defense couldn't get off the field, not in the first quarter on a missed fumble call.
 
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Pheasant;999131; said:
It was stupid for them to be officiating that game, and they made some horrible calls, but I really hope this doesn't turn into sour grapes if we don't make the title game. Illinois won that game in the fourth quarter when our defense couldn't get off the field, not in the first quarter on a missed fumble call.
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Exactly. Lets be happy with the Rose Bowl people.
 
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We still have a shot now that oklahoma is out of the picture and also Missouri or Kansas will lose next saturday becuase the play each other then Oklahoma plays the winner and hopefully then can beat that team. Just hope West Virginia can lose
 
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OHSportsFan9;999182; said:
If Mizzou (#3) beats Kansas (undefeated, #2) how far will Kansas fall? They would have the best "quality loss" losing to the #2 team in the country.
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They would not be even the B12 north champ and they have also been, imo, the team the pollsters are most wanting to drop if they lose. Kansas isn't going to get any benefit of the doubt from the pollsters imo.
 
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OHSportsFan9;999182; said:
If Mizzou (#3) beats Kansas (undefeated, #2) how far will Kansas fall? They would have the best "quality loss" losing to the #2 team in the country.
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Doesnt Kansas have the easiest schedule in college football History though ??? I heard that on ESPN last night, or it could have been my cat that told me, i had a little to drink :)
 
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Tonyank said:
Doesnt Kansas have the easiest schedule in college football History though ??? I heard that on ESPN last night, or it could have been my cat that told me, i had a little to drink :)
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Kansas has the 77th ranked SOS, with a 9-1 opponent next week.

tOSU has the 40th ranked schedule.

I'll still hope for a blowout one way or the other just to release any doubt that the loser of the game may remain in the top 5.
 
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