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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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playultimate;999056; said:
Don't need to jump them in the computers. We'll jump them in the human polls. Mizzou is sandwiched between OSU - WV in the Harris and USA Today. If they lose, OSU gains points, WV gains nothing.

Here's the math:

Harris: .8029 (mizzou) - .7500(osu)= .0529

and

USA Today: .7960(mizzou) - .7633(osu) = .0327

Total of .0856

Divide that .0856 by three and you get .0285

Add .0285 to .7744 to get .8025.

.8025 (osu) > .7863 (wv)

Even if WV gains on us in the computers for wins over Cincy, Uconn, and Pitt, the gains we earn in the human polls (2/3rds of the BCS) could overcome that.
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Not so sure about that. Your math is fine but the logic is not. WV is already ahead of OSU in both human polls. OSU can gain points with a Mizzou loss, but that still doesn't put them above WV. The pollsters would have to make a conscious decision to place OSU ahead of WV. I don't see that happening, unless WV barely escapes Uconn or flat out loses. OSU needs to be above WV in the computers to overcome WV's lead in the polls.
 
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So, we're basically sitting at 4th right now behind LSU, winner of Kansas/Mizzou, and WVU.

1. LSU has two tough games in Arkansas and SEC champ game (Georgia?). I'd say that they have about a 75% chance at winning each game, which means they have a 56% chance at winning out.

2. Kansas/Mizzou winner just has to win the Big 12 champ game. I assume that will be Oklahoma, and if Bradford is back to 100% (he should be), I'd say there is a 75% chance at Kansas/Mizzou winning.

3. WVU has UConn and Pitt left. I'd say they have a 60% shot at beating UConn and 90% at Pitt. That gives them a 54% chance at winning out.

So, we need at least 2 of the 3 scenarios to come true. There is a 23% of all three teams winning out (Buckeyes finish at #4), 42% chance that one team loses (Buckeyes finish at #3), a 30% chance that 2 teams lose (Buckeyes finish at #2), and a 5% chance that NONE of them win out (Buckeyes enter the NC Game #1). Basically. given these estimates on each of the remaining games, I'd say the Bucks have a 35% chance at getting to New Orleans (30% plus 5%). Not bad. Not bad at all. And it should make the next two weekends a lot of fun to watch.

Oh yeah, one more stat that I'm particularly fond of: 14 is bigger than 3!!!!
 
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If the big ten is smart they have the officials issue an appology for not reviewing the play in the Illinois game. They don't need to go as far as saying it changed the game (as that would be disrespectful to illi) \, because the talking heads would likely fill in the blanks. The more that play gets shown on tv the more likely voters would be to jump tOSU over wvu in the polls.
 
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Yertle;999073; said:
So, we're basically sitting at 4th right now behind LSU, winner of Kansas/Mizzou, and WVU.

1. LSU has two tough games in Arkansas and SEC champ game (Georgia?). I'd say that they have about a 75% chance at winning each game, which means they have a 56% chance at winning out.

2. Kansas/Mizzou winner just has to win the Big 12 champ game. I assume that will be Oklahoma, and if Bradford is back to 100% (he should be), I'd say there is a 75% chance at Kansas/Mizzou winning.

3. WVU has UConn and Pitt left. I'd say they have a 60% shot at beating UConn and 90% at Pitt. That gives them a 54% chance at winning out.

So, we need at least 2 of the 3 scenarios to come true. There is a 23% of all three teams winning out (Buckeyes finish at #4), 42% chance that one team loses (Buckeyes finish at #3), a 30% chance that 2 teams lose (Buckeyes finish at #2), and a 5% chance that NONE of them win out (Buckeyes enter the NC Game #1). Basically. given these estimates on each of the remaining games, I'd say the Bucks have a 35% chance at getting to New Orleans (30% plus 5%). Not bad. Not bad at all. And it should make the next two weekends a lot of fun to watch.

Oh yeah, one more stat that I'm particularly fond of: 14 is bigger than 3!!!!
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Damn, where were you 38 years ago when I was taking some statistics classes at OSU? :biggrin:
 
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Yertle;999073; said:
2. Kansas/Mizzou winner just has to win the Big 12 champ game. I assume that will be Oklahoma, and if Bradford is back to 100% (he should be), I'd say there is a 75% chance at Kansas/Mizzou winning.
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You really think there is only a 25% chance that oklahoma would beat kansas or missouri?
 
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Taosman;999091; said:
Yertle, I believe your subtraction is off! 2 losses in front of us would move us up to #5! :tongue2:
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Is that sarcasm or did you not realize oregon and oklahoma already lost to put as 5... and since missou and ku play eachother we might as well be 4 for these purposes.?
 
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