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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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Assuming all current scores hold up, West Virginia stands to widen their lead slightly over Ohio State in the BCS because of where they stand in the computer polls. Ohio State is ranked ahead of Oklahoma who is ranked ahead of West Virginia by the computers, so while both will benefit from Oklahoma's loss, WVU stands to gain a little more because Ohio State will only see the benefit in the human polls and not among the computers.

The nice thing though is that Ohio State would stand to benefit over West Virginia in a similar fashion in the human polls (where it really counts) if Missouri loses. The gap between West Virginia and Ohio State in the BCS standings is a little over a percentage point in the overall average - the slimmest margin between positions among the top eight. These kind of quirks are going to make things interesting in the coming days and weeks.
 
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I tend to think the human polls tend to overreact immediately following a loss and correct later. Win a big one on the road, on a national stage, and suddenly Illinois looks more like a fluke. M*ch may be down this year, but I think the aura of the game helps, and it was a fierce battle in bad conditions.
 
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Week 1 teams to cheer for:

Thursday Night:

U of Oregon @ The University of Arizona (+13)

U of A needs 2 wins to become bowl eligible and possibly save Mike Stoop's job. Last game beat UCLA at home by 7 making it back to back wins for the Cats. Lost to USC 20-13 earlier. QB Willie Tuitama has thrown for 3,145 yards so far (1st PAC 10, 8th NCAA). Our good friend Louis "Big Foot" Holmes on D.


Saturday:


West Virgina @ U of Cincinnati (+6 1/2)

UC comes in at 8-2 off of back to back wins vs South Florida and UConn. They still have a chance to win the Big East and head to a BCS game. A good run defense will present Slaton and Devine a challange.


Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (+9)

Here is a team that has dropped off the radar just about harder than anyone else. They have lost 3 out of their last 4. They're 4-1 at home, 7-4 overall and averaging well over 40 ppg. QB Graham Harrell is a tad outside of 5,000 yards passing this year. Expect a shoot out in Lubbock.

Iowa State (+25 1/2) @ U of Kansas

If you just take a look at their last 4 games you'll see a completly different team than their 3-8 record shows. They put Oklahoma's back to the wall losing 17-7, then played at Missouri tough losing 42-28...last week they beat Kansas State 31-20... then this past weekend down 21-0 at half, they storm back to win 31-28 vs. Colorado.

L.SU. @ Ole Mississippi (+18)

Even though they are 3-8, they ...ok there's not much great to say about them. I think I'll bet big on LSU this weekend. I don't think even if Eli came back they'd have a shot. (please jinx please jinx)

Missouri @ Kansas State (+8)

At 5-5 they'e one game off from being bowl eligible. A very wishy washy team. Who will show up? The team that went into Austin and beat Texas by 20. Or the one that lost to Nebraska last week 73-31, They have the ability to put points on the board. At home they are 4-1 this year, the loss 30-24 to Kansas. Jordy Nelson leads them with 1,347 yards recieving ant 9 td's.
Click to expand...



2 Down...

3 (Kansas/ Missouri)

LSU
Kansas
Missouri
West Virginia
Ohio State
 
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In speaking with other knowledgable football/bcs people...

The bcs rankings may change in the next week and a half in our favor due to the computers. The computers are done by individual firms that put in seperate data to make up new polls if you will place teams in a order per the data entered. The top and bottom rank from those"polls" get tossed and then that avg is put into the mix with the other 2 polls (coaches and harris) according to the 3 new averages the BCS poll is created. The computers usually love Ohio State(like they do again this year) and with OKLA's loss it opens us up to have good things happen after the kan/miss game- esp if missouri wins. At that point we may jump wv because we are extremely close point-wise in the bcs. so we may have an additional possibility w/o a WV loss. The biggest help would come from a okla miss big 12 title with okla winning knocking all 3 teams out. an LSU or WV loss is a definite bonus. We also got a lot of help from other teams and may get more. Wash beat cal today. They play hawaii(if they are still undefeated) would give us sos points in the comps with a wash win. So there are a lot of possibilities left, which is why you keep hearing everyone saying that they will have to wait til next weeks games to get a clearer understanding. Plus all of the DIV-2 tms wont count in the comps so mich looks better. Obviously the easiest way for the bucks to get in is......

at least 2 of 3 loses from LSU,WV, KAN/MISS

so root for....OKLA/TEX,UCONN/PITT,ARK/UGA/TENN, and for safety USC.

GO BUCKS!!!!

:oh:
 
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Having Oregon go down and the likely B12 champ get that 2nd loss were the two most unlikely upsets imo going into this weekends games. Now its

1. LSU loss to Arkansas or SEC CG
2. B12 south win B12 CG
3. WVU loss to Uconn or Pitt
4. USC beat ASU just to be safe.

3 out of 4 gurantees us a NC game
2 of first 3 probably does as well
1 of first 2 might still do the trick
 
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jwinslow;998912; said:
If #1 & #2 happen, but WVU remains unscathed... is there any chance UGA could leapfrog OSU?
Click to expand...


I would say no way. 2 losses is just too much to overcome even if the human voters wanted it to happen(which I don't think is the case.) 2 losses seems to be the line of demarcation for the CFB collective conciousness even if its 2 SEC losses.
 
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I could see Arkansas beating LSU (especially if LSU plays as bad as they did this week), McFadden alone gives them a chance

and I wouldint be shocked to see Ohio State ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings tommorow
 
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