TheMightyQuinn;702775; said:
I just watched the UF preview of the NC on FCS Atlantic. They think their running game is even with ours because they average 1 more yard per carry on 1st down. I think X-rayRandy found a new job.
I can tell you where they got that worthless stat from. Down here in the "Sunshine State", there is a cable sports channel called the "Sunshine Sports Network" or something to that effect. They have done a preview of the NC game that has been running every other day or so for the last 3 weeks (at least). That show is where the "1 more yard per carry on 1st down" stuff comes from.
As one of BP's local stat geeks, one thing that I feel especially qualified to comment on is the proper use of statistics. XRAYrandy is a great example of someone who has no flippin' clue of how to derive meaning from numbers. It was prescient of you to observe that the Gator attempt to draw conclusions from this stat is the same kind of error.
This error is borne of the assumption that all 1st downs are created equal. This is simply not the case.
One of the few things that I didn't keep stats on this year was the number of times that I observed that Ohio State passed liberally on first down until they had a lead, and then ran almost exclusively on first down after building a comfortable lead. Running right at a defense that knows you're going to run is a very different thing than running a reverse at a team that you're trailing by 3.
While this adequately explains that OSU is better at rushing on 1st down than the season-long stats indicate; it is only a part of a much larger point. And that point is:
It is simply not possible to quantify the amount of untapped potential that Ohio State's offense has left on the field this year. Perhaps more accurately, the untapped potential cannot be quantified in a way that would be interesting, and it's effect within the context of our schedule strength would be extremely difficult to quantify meaningfully.
Jim Tressel did not care about style points in 2002 when we would have been left out of a title game if there had been 3 undefeated teams. So how much more potential is left untapped as he manages a season with a much more powerful offense and with a team that is ranked #1 in the preseason?
This is why my stats focus on things that I find interesting. This is why I'm not a betting man. The outcome of a game is a simple, efficient, effective and more importantly an interesting means of determining the relative strength of teams. While the game is a single data point, and it may be several sigma outside the mean of numerous contests between the two schools, it is the only data that matters.
The team with more points at the end of the game will hoist the crystal football. Troy Smith and Jim Tressel know what it takes to make that happen. While this doesn't guarantee victory, it is as close as any team can get to it this year.
And it is a more meaningful fact than any set of numbers will ever be.
