Here is the current AP top10:
1. Notre Dame ... 11-0 1,500
2. Alabama ...... 10-1 1,399
3. Georgia ...... 10-1 1,316
4. Ohio St ...... 11-0 1,292
5. Oregon ....... 10-1 1,246
6. Florida ...... 10-1 1,171
7. Kansas St .... 10-1 1,064
8. LSU ........... 9-2 1,048
9. Texas A&M ..... 9-2 1,028
10. Florida St .. 10-1 1,026
Let's say Notre Dame loses at USC while we beat Michigan...no way ND doesn't drop beneath us. Alabama will likely play Georgia in the SEC title game...the loser will drop below us. The puts us #2 in the AP behind the SEC rep in the BCSCG going into the bowls.
Since ND had lost, if Oregon beats Oregon State, Oregon would likely go back up into the #2 BCS ranking and face the SEC champ in the BCSCG (I don't Kansas State can overcome the ass-whupping Baylor put on them). Unless ND wins big in their BCS bowl I don't see them jumping back over us in the AP. The loser of the BCSCG wil have two losses and likely will stay/drop below us in the AP poll, whether they were the AP #1 SEC champ or Oregon. If the SEC champ loses against Oregon they will drop below us, and Oregon will likely jump us...this scenario is our only real chance of being AP #1 since if the SEC champ beats Oregon and they're already ranked ahead of us, we'd remain #2 in the AP.
So, in summary, if Notre Dame loses at USC and the SEC champ loses in the BCSCG, we have a slim chance at finishing as AP national champs, provided we beat Michigan.