We all know the offense felt clunky. Here are some thoughts after rewatching and charting:
-Overall I think the biggest issue with the offense was the lack of RPOs. I counted 8 before garbage time, and I'm pretty sure that they turned off the pass options after halftime because Sayin wasn't throwing them. In the first half they had 3 successful plays on 5 RPOs, and would have had another had Sayin's pass to Tate not been knocked down at the LOS. Specifically in 12 personnel they ran basically no RPOs (2 despite running 14 times out of 12P)
-I thought 11p looked good. 52% success rate, and 63% rushing success rate. Most of the successful rushes came with Kacmerek in the game.
-12p running game was bad, successful on just 5 out of 14 runs. TE blocking from Klare and Roberts was typically the culprit, a couple bad reps from Inniss as well. Lack of RPOs did not help here; they ran a lot from under center
-Overall the backs leave a lot to be desired. Very little ability to make anyone miss. There were a number of runs where they blocked it up well but a safety made an open field tackle. They tend to run straight to contact rather than trying to make a move in the open field. Jackson is the best of the lot but not by much. I didn't think Donaldson ran well in short yardage, even though a few were successful. He just has no power or pad level at all
-Passing game had more misfires than normal. Some miscommunications. Some PBUs by Illinois. But I did think there were 3 plays that illustrate that Sayin is operating at a very high level right now overall:
1. The first 3rd down throw to Smith, Sayin is working the left side and comes back to the middle on time to hit the backside dig. It looks open, but there are a lot of QBs who struggle to get back to it on time when they start their read to the other side
2. The out route in the 1st quarter on 3rd and 9 to Tate. Sayin sees the soft corner and throws with outstanding anticipation. Lets the ball go very early and gives the corner no chance to make a play
3. 2nd and 12 seam ball to Klare on the first drive out of halftime. Another throw with some anticipation, fits it into a tight window before the safety can come down. Encouraging to see him rip the ball into a tight window in the middle of the field
-On the weird fake screen/incompletion to Smith, Illinois got very lucky that they were blitzing. If they weren't, Tate would have been wide open for a touchdown because the corner had his eyes on Smith the whole time.
My biggest takeaway is that I don't think they are calling their best stuff and are perhaps challenging the offense to execute more basic stuff in challenging circumstances. For example a few times near the red zone they ran into loaded boxes, could easily have gone to the dropback game. But it feels like they are season planning instead of just game planning. Add in that 24 of their 57 plays before garbage time were in the red zone and you have the recipe for a game that feels clunky.
I'm pretty confident that once they face a real test we will see more RPO, more 11 personnel, and maybe actually some 12 personnel with Max Klare split out in the slot. They will focus on calling what works instead of just what they want to rep. So overall, my only true concern is that the running backs just aren't very good and are not going to get extra yards. But I think they can still have a very good offense in spite of that because of how good the passing game can be.
