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2024 College Football Playoffs Discussion (12 Team Format)

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GET RATIOED. Eleven years ago, Bud Elliott of CBS Sports created the Blue-Chip Ratio, which examines the percentage of four and five-star prospects on a college football team and identifies whether that team can win a national title.

Since its inception in 2013, the Blue-Chip Ratio has been “an excellent method for identifying the top 10% of teams that have a shot at winning a title,” Elliott wrote this week. “To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes. … This has been consistently true since the advent of modern internet recruiting rankings.”

Does the Blue-Chip Ratio guarantee a team will win the national title? No. Does the Blue-Chip Ratio guarantee a team will compete for a national title? No. But it never hurts for a team to have a roster full of four- and five-star talent. (Unless you’re Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M). And this season, Ohio State will have the most four and five-star talent in college football.



While I loved learning that Ohio State has the most Blue Chips in the sport, I was reminded of a comment head coach Ryan Day made about his team in March. He said the Buckeyes are talented, but it will be the “no-talent issues” that make the difference in 2024.

“You see the potential,” Day said. “But for as much talent as we have, it will be the no-talent issues that help us win and reach our goals. That’s been the focus now. Once we get on the field, that’s what we focus on. It isn’t seeing Jeremiah (Smith) run a go-ball. It’s the discipline of knowing what to do. It’s the focus. It’s the running the ball. It’s the effort. It’s all the things that take no talent. That’s the focus.”

Like head coach, like assistant coach, James Laurinaitis made a similar comment last week.
 
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ScriptOhio said:
somehow I don't see them supporting a plan that in the second round could get one of their teams playing at a cold weather school.
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Right. They already have the majority of the bowl games in their territory. So we should they vote to change? And add in the fact that an away game for them could put them in weather that puts them at a disadvantage.
 
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Zurp said:
Right. They already have the majority of the bowl games in their territory. So we should they vote to change? And add in the fact that an away game for them could put them in weather that puts them at a disadvantage.
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So blow jobs and luxury cruises all around sayall the Big Ten ADs. Why work to get equitable sites for a national play off system?
 
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cincibuck said:
So blow jobs and luxury cruises all around sayall the Big Ten ADs. Why work to get equitable sites for a national play off system?
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Yep. Nobody fought harder against the current round of home sites than Gene Smith who happens to...checks notes...be on the board of the Fiesta Bowl. And don't get me started on Delaney who gladly sold out the interests of conference members to protect his beloved Rose Bowl.
 
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www.elevenwarriors.com

The Weekender: Looking Forward to Cold Weather First-Round Games, Oregon Rising, and the Pac-12's Slow Death

A look at how cold weather will impact first-round games of the expanded CFP, Oregon sees momentum on and off the field, and the Pac-12 continues its slow death.
www.elevenwarriors.com www.elevenwarriors.com

DREAMING OF A WHITE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS​

In the 26 seasons in which college football made varying degrees of effort to pick a national champion on the field, one thing was consistent from the BCS to the four-team CFP: the games that mattered were played in a controlled climate, indoors or in great weather cities. That changes this season when the expanded playoff will see teams rated five to eight host first-round CFP games on campus on Friday, Dec. 20, and Saturday, Dec. 21.

Some of these games will be played on campus in warm weather climates. Others will not. And that's something northern college football fans have dreamt about for decades.

Matt Stahl of AL.com looked at historical weather conditions for these first-round games had they been played from the start of the BCS era in 1998. While not every game would have kicked off in a blizzard, there would have been plenty of fun on the weather front.

The snowiest first-round game would have come in 2016, when 7.4 inches fell in Madison on December 18 and 19 when Wisconsin would have hosted Southern California at Camp Randall. No other game even came close, with the second-snowiest Friday-Saturday coming that same year, when Michigan would have hosted Florida State
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Stahl's research found snowy conditions in 15% of these games and wet weather in nearly half of the 104 games.

Cincinnati might have hosted the third-rainiest first round game seven years later. In 2020, Cincinnati would have played Georgia during a Friday and Saturday when 1.2 inches of rain fell.
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A substantial 65 of the 104 games would have been played during a two-day stretch in which the low temperature dropped below freezing. Think cold alone does not matter? Some might remember the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl, played in unusually cool 40-degree weather in Orlando. Miami players wore sleeves and huddled around heaters on the sidelines, while the underdog Badgers wore no sleeves and proceeded to bully the Hurricanes up and down the field.

December can't get here soon enough.
 
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ScriptOhio said:
www.elevenwarriors.com

The Weekender: Looking Forward to Cold Weather First-Round Games, Oregon Rising, and the Pac-12's Slow Death

A look at how cold weather will impact first-round games of the expanded CFP, Oregon sees momentum on and off the field, and the Pac-12 continues its slow death.
www.elevenwarriors.com www.elevenwarriors.com

DREAMING OF A WHITE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS​

In the 26 seasons in which college football made varying degrees of effort to pick a national champion on the field, one thing was consistent from the BCS to the four-team CFP: the games that mattered were played in a controlled climate, indoors or in great weather cities. That changes this season when the expanded playoff will see teams rated five to eight host first-round CFP games on campus on Friday, Dec. 20, and Saturday, Dec. 21.

Some of these games will be played on campus in warm weather climates. Others will not. And that's something northern college football fans have dreamt about for decades.

Matt Stahl of AL.com looked at historical weather conditions for these first-round games had they been played from the start of the BCS era in 1998. While not every game would have kicked off in a blizzard, there would have been plenty of fun on the weather front.


Stahl's research found snowy conditions in 15% of these games and wet weather in nearly half of the 104 games.


A substantial 65 of the 104 games would have been played during a two-day stretch in which the low temperature dropped below freezing. Think cold alone does not matter? Some might remember the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl, played in unusually cool 40-degree weather in Orlando. Miami players wore sleeves and huddled around heaters on the sidelines, while the underdog Badgers wore no sleeves and proceeded to bully the Hurricanes up and down the field.

December can't get here soon enough.
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That's interesting. I still think that there will be some tampering, somehow. For instance, let's say Central Florida is 10th and maybe Ole Miss in 9th. #9 should play at #8 and #10 should play at #7. Well, #7 is Arizona. (Yeah, even I know this is a far-fetched scenario, already.) And #8 is Wisconsin. I'm guessing that somehow, magically, without any other explanation, either #7 and #8 will switch, or #9 and #10 will switch. They will do what they can to keep the SEC from going to a cold-weather stadium.
 
Upvote 0
ScriptOhio said:
www.elevenwarriors.com

The Weekender: Looking Forward to Cold Weather First-Round Games, Oregon Rising, and the Pac-12's Slow Death

A look at how cold weather will impact first-round games of the expanded CFP, Oregon sees momentum on and off the field, and the Pac-12 continues its slow death.
www.elevenwarriors.com www.elevenwarriors.com

DREAMING OF A WHITE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS​

In the 26 seasons in which college football made varying degrees of effort to pick a national champion on the field, one thing was consistent from the BCS to the four-team CFP: the games that mattered were played in a controlled climate, indoors or in great weather cities. That changes this season when the expanded playoff will see teams rated five to eight host first-round CFP games on campus on Friday, Dec. 20, and Saturday, Dec. 21.

Some of these games will be played on campus in warm weather climates. Others will not. And that's something northern college football fans have dreamt about for decades.

Matt Stahl of AL.com looked at historical weather conditions for these first-round games had they been played from the start of the BCS era in 1998. While not every game would have kicked off in a blizzard, there would have been plenty of fun on the weather front.


Stahl's research found snowy conditions in 15% of these games and wet weather in nearly half of the 104 games.


A substantial 65 of the 104 games would have been played during a two-day stretch in which the low temperature dropped below freezing. Think cold alone does not matter? Some might remember the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl, played in unusually cool 40-degree weather in Orlando. Miami players wore sleeves and huddled around heaters on the sidelines, while the underdog Badgers wore no sleeves and proceeded to bully the Hurricanes up and down the field.

December can't get here soon enough.
Click to expand...
How is it that: 1. I’ve seen plenty of NFL playoff games played in places like Green Bay, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Denver. 2. I’ve seen lots of bowl games played in sloppy weather in “great weather” cities. And yet we have to have the Bowl Games to have a true national champion?
 
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scarletandgame.com

Vegas loves the Ohio State football team's chances to win a national title

The Ohio State football team is one of the most talented rosters in the country. Vegas agrees and loves their chance to win a national title.
scarletandgame.com scarletandgame.com

Ohio State football team has high odds to win a national championship​

According to FanDuel, the Buckeyes have +400 odds to win a national championship. They have the second-best odds to win a title. The only team who is ahead of them is Georgia and they sit at +300. Georgia is going to be a very solid team, but they certainly aren't dominant.

There isn't a truly dominant team in college football this season. There are a lot of teams who will have a chance to win a title this year. It should make for a great regular season of college football, especially in the first year of the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

Ohio State has the best chance of any Big Ten team. The next closest Big Ten team on the odds board is Oregon, which is +800. They are a distant third. It's clear that Vegas loves both the Buckeyes and the Bulldogs. Ohio State will have to face the Ducks though and that won't be easy.
 
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Vegas now sees Ohio State as the most likely team to make the CFP​

College Football Playoff Berth Odds​

Likely reflecting the underwhelming week that the Big Ten had last Saturday, OSU has shot up to the most likely team to make the College Football Playoff. At -850, in order to win $100 by betting on the Buckeyes to make the CFP field, you would have to wager $850. While I think the chances of Ohio State making the top 12, it might not be worth the risk.

Last week, DraftKings had OSU at -650, but FanDuel (again, the far wiser and more insightful of the big online sportsbooks) clearly understands how good the Buckeyes are. UGA remained steady at -750, meaning that Ohio State simply dumped them, going from second to first place.

You will notice some shifting in the rankings, with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish falling from third place last week to a tie for 16th following their loss to Northern Illinois. Then, the Texas Longhorns jumped from fifth (at -260) to third at -600.
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CFP_Schedule_Announce_Graphic_Twitter.jpg


2024-25 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
DATE GAME TIME (ET) PLATFORM
Fri., Dec. 20 CFP First Round Game 8 p.m. ABC & ESPN
Sat., Dec. 21 CFP First Round Game Noon TNT
CFP First Round Game 4 p.m. TNT
CFP First Round Game 8 p.m. ABC & ESPN
Tue., Dec. 31 Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl 7:30 p.m. ESPN
Wed., Jan. 1 Playoff Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl 1 p.m. ESPN
Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential 5 p.m. ESPN
Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl 8:45 p.m. ESPN
Thu., Jan. 9 Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl 7:30 p.m. ESPN
Fri., Jan. 10 Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic 7:30 p.m. ESPN
Mon., Jan. 20 CFP National Championship (Atlanta, Ga.) 7:30 p.m. ESPN
 
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