Here are the three issues involved with the Michigan cheating scandal: (1) what to do about the past; (2) what to do about the future; and (3) how to get a quick resolution.
(1) The only team that was truly damaged in this scandal was Ohio State, whose loss to Michigan in 2021 cost them the Big Ten Title Game and a chance for the Playoffs; and whose loss in 2022 cost them the Big Ten Title Game; Michigan's opponents in those Big Ten Title Games were also potentially damaged, if those teams were "scouted" during the season. Nothing, not even forfeiting games can make Ohio State whole; vacating games would make Iowa the Big Ten champs for 2021 and Purdue for 2022.
(2) The Big Ten has real problem on its hands – the reputation of the league and the integrity of its brand are in jeopardy. Most immediately, there are two Big Ten teams – Ohio State and Penn State – that have a legitimate chance to make the Playoffs this season, with Ohio State's invitation being nearly guaranteed if they beat Michigan. There are also obvious issues with the league's "gambling partners" and with state and federal gaming regulators (what Michigan was doing was essentially a "reverse point shaving" scheme, see more below), not to mention the four powerful new members who now may not want to bring their huge media markets into a tainted league. And of course, the existing members (especially Ohio State, who suffered the most) are extremely pissed off and out for blood. The Big Ten does owe Michigan some "due process", but if the league really has the damning evidence of cheating then it needs to do something before things get really out of hand.
(3) The only way to get a quick resolution is to get Michigan to "plea bargain". Show them the smoking gun(s), make them an offer they can't refuse. What would that be? In my opinion, it would be something like this: (a) Michigan vacates all 33 wins from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 season up to this point; (b) Michigan forfeits all future games this season (those games would not be played at all); (c) Michigan fires all football coaches, and all staffers who might have had knowledge of this scheme; and (d) Harbaugh and the coordinators receive lifetime bans from coaching at Big Ten schools. In that scenario, Michigan wins a little bit – their "cheated" wins are vacated not forfeited, and they don't suffer any scholarship reductions or future bowl bans. The Big Ten also wins a bit because they prevent their "cheating" program from interfering with their flagship program's current playoff chances and they avoid any future embarrassment that would result from Michigan potentially winning an NC that would end up being vacated or forfeited; in addition, they have the "good look" of being proactive and meting out swift justice.
So, why did Michigan do this? Yes, to beat Ohio State, win Big Ten titles, and go to the playoffs. But why scout Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, and the rest of the Big Ten bottom dwellers? Did Michigan really need an extra advantage to beat those teams? Was it simple paranoia? Were they scouting the bums to perfect their sign stealing system against MSU, PSU, and OSU? Or was something else going on here? As mentioned earlier in this thread, over the last three seasons, Michigan is 17-5-1 against the spread versus Big Ten teams, including 4-0-1 this year to date. It looks to me like Michigan was running what I will call a "reverse point shaving" scheme, where instead of "playing down" to bad competition to keep games close (within the spread) they were "cheating up" to cover the spread. Follow the money, folks. If someone affiliated the Michigan program won lots of cash betting on Michigan to cover, then this could get really ugly (like Federal pen ugly).
Just some thoughts to brighten your morning.
