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2021 CFB Playoff Discussion

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Oh8ch said:
If OSU wins out the teams that get in ahead of them are:

Alabama if they win out.
Georgia if they win out or lose only the SEC CG.
Oklahoma if they win out.
Oklahoma State if they win out (thus beating OU twice).

That's it. And since only one of the last two can happen - we would be in.

If we beat MSU, PSU, UM and the West champ nobody else has a schedule that would justify passing us.

Other than Oregon there is nobody in the PAC with less than 2 losses.

The ACC is becoming more of a joke conference every week. (Half the committee members will be surprised to learn that Pitt and Wake even have football teams.)

Cincinnati's best hope was that ND was for real. You can't compare wins over ND and SMU to what we are facing. Their only other hope is that the results vs our two common opponents (IU and Tulsa) trend dramatically in their favor. Despite our slight "struggle" with Tulsa, this weekend will put an end to that pipe dream.
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Still think a 12-1 conference champ Oregon gets in over us but otherwise, I think this post is spot on.

Also I think the chances of Oregon winning out are basically zero.
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
Still think a 12-1 conference champ Oregon gets in over us but otherwise, I think this post is spot on.

Also I think the chances of Oregon winning out are basically zero.
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I understand that head to head is an issue, but they do not have a single ranked team on their remaining schedule. Their SOS is crap and ours would be through the roof.

The committees criteria as I understand it is biased towards the end of the season. We would have 3 top 10 wins in our last five games against a loss in our 2nd game. Their only big win is in game 2 against a new QB. The committee looks at that shit. No way do I see that standing up.

We just need the wins.
 
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Oh8ch said:
I understand that head to head is an issue, but they do not have a single ranked team on their remaining schedule. Their SOS is crap and ours would be through the roof.

The committees criteria as I understand it is biased towards the end of the season. We would have 3 top 10 wins in our last five games against a loss in our 2nd game. Their only big win is in game 2 against a new QB. The committee looks at that shit. No way do I see that standing up.

We just need the wins.
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Wish I was as sure about that as you. The outrage would be real (and completely justified) if we were chosen over them given identical records.
 
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Oh8ch said:
I understand that head to head is an issue, but they do not have a single ranked team on their remaining schedule. Their SOS is crap and ours would be through the roof.

The committees criteria as I understand it is biased towards the end of the season. We would have 3 top 10 wins in our last five games against a loss in our 2nd game. Their only big win is in game 2 against a new QB. The committee looks at that shit. No way do I see that standing up.

We just need the wins.
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Updated: We would have 3 2 top 10 wins...Fucking Ped State lost...scUM plays Sparty next week and the loser is likely to drop out of the top 10 too...Might be a long shot, but maybe Iowa can win out and get back in the top 10 before B1G CCG.

Regardless, Ohio State definitely needs to:

just-win-baby-al-davis.gif


If they do I honestly believe that things will work out and they'll be in the CFPs.....:nod:
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
Wish I was as sure about that as you. The outrage would be real (and completely justified) if we were chosen over them given identical records.
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You have to look at it both ways. Our one loss has been to a top 10 team.

Oregon's one loss was to 4 loss Stanford.

That our loss was in fact to Oregon only goes so far or you would have to put Stanford in the playoffs.
 
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Oh8ch said:
You have to look at it both ways. Our one loss has been to a top 10 team.

Oregon's one loss was to 4 loss Stanford.

That our loss was in fact to Oregon only goes so far or you would have to put Stanford in the playoffs.
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I understand where you're coming from for sure, I just think when two P5 teams have the same record, both won a CC, and played each other, the head to head SHOULD be the determining factor (otherwise the whole "most important regular season" notion
kinda goes out the window).

That's not to say that's how the committee will view it, given their unpredictable nature, but another Oregon loss would make me significantly more comfortable.
 
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Too add a bit to the Oregon argument - only two of their six wins have been by more than 7 points. A win over 0-7 Arizona and a win over a Stony Brook team that lost to Fordham, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Towson.

If the committee can ignore that in favor of a head to head match what is the point of a committee?

And FWIW I once took a look at rematches in CFB. It was several years ago and there weren't that many at the time - 20 or so.

But what I found was that the team who won the first game won the second only half the time. Which leads to the argument that head to head means nothing.

Of course that not only weakens Oregon's case, it undermines the argument for a play off at all.
 
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To follow up on rematches I just checked Wikipedia.

In bowl game rematches the loser of the first game is 15-9 in the second.

In conference championship games the winner of the first game is 29-16.

I don't know what to make of all that but it makes the case for "proving it on the field " interesting.
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
Still think a 12-1 conference champ Oregon gets in over us but otherwise, I think this post is spot on.

Also I think the chances of Oregon winning out are basically zero.
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Oh8ch said:
I understand that head to head is an issue, but they do not have a single ranked team on their remaining schedule. Their SOS is crap and ours would be through the roof.

The committees criteria as I understand it is biased towards the end of the season. We would have 3 top 10 wins in our last five games against a loss in our 2nd game. Their only big win is in game 2 against a new QB. The committee looks at that shit. No way do I see that standing up.

We just need the wins.
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Imo it would come down to an "eye test".
We would need more weekends like this where Oregon struggles with a decent, but unranked, UCLA while we absolute pummel our opposition.
See also 2014 Wisconsin.
Much as I enjoy seeing PSU implode, they didn't do us any favors the last 2 weekends. Neither did Iowa, for that matter.
These teams should remain in top 25, but assuming we beat them... it's not going to be as impressive as previously thought, unless Day runs up the score.
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
I understand where you're coming from for sure, I just think when two P5 teams have the same record, both won a CC, and played each other, the head to head SHOULD be the determining factor (otherwise the whole "most important regular season" notion
kinda goes out the window).

That's not to say that's how the committee will view it, given their unpredictable nature, but another Oregon loss would make me significantly more comfortable.
Click to expand...
I understand PED had an extra loss in 2016 but in 2016 the committee could have given PED the nod but instead put us at 4 and PED at 5.
 
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