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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
“Things are about to get really interesting,” Herbstreit said. “We keep thinking, ‘Has Ohio State improved as much as they looked or is it maybe just their opponent?’ Because they lost to Oregon, and they didn’t look that much better against Tulsa defensively. They gave up a ton of yards. Then they made some switches … and they’ve played a lot better. Their offense, let’s just make one thing perfectly clear, CJ Stroud is your guy. He’s got the best trio of receivers on one team in the country. He’s got a freshman running back that’s probably the top freshman back in the country and probably one of the best freshman in general. They’ve got an NFL tight end in Ruckert. They’re going to score 45 points per game. There it is.
“They’re going to get to a point where it gets tough. At Indiana. Penn State. At Nebraska. Those aren’t easy games, by the way. Purdue at home. Michigan State. At Michigan. They get a bye week, and then they roll up their sleeves for the second half. Then we find out how good they really are. They will get the chance to show it. They won’t need help. It’s all right in front of them. They play No. 7, No. 10, No. 8, and if they end up playing Iowa, No. 2. You’ll find out how much that defense has improved. Right now, they are trending in the right direction after that loss to Oregon.”
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
The College Football Playoff’s mock selection committees met last week, providing media members and athletic directors an inside look at how the real committee selects its top 25 each week, seeds teams in their rankings and slots those programs in the four-team playoff and New Year’s Six bowls.
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
1. GEORGIA, 0.9998
It is abundantly clear that Georgia is the best team in the land at the midseason junction as the Bulldogs continue to pound the opposition with relentless aggression defensively and an offense that can beat you in a variety of ways. So far, so good for a team most expected to be Kirby Smart's best of his tenure. Georgia is ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time in 40 years and that is a testament to how far this program has come under Smart's direction.
2. IOWA, 0.9394
Iowa pulled off one of the biggest wins in recent memory by edging Penn State at home. They have a quick turnaround with Purdue this weekend, but at least play them at home. It is up to Kirk Ferentz to make sure his team does not have an emotional letdown against a middle-of-the-road Boilermakers squad.
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
If you're bored, FiveThirtyEight's playoff predictor is actually a fun tool. You can click through scenarios and watch teams' playoff and national title odds jump up and down.
After pushing a button, I'm pleased to report that the simplest "control your own destiny" scenario for Ohio State – winning every remaining game – would get the Buckeyes into the playoff with greater than 99% certainty.
So at the end of the day, things are really simple: just win, baby!
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Just saying, if
We're in the a Cotton Bowl would that mean BigXII or PAC referee crew? That would have meant Buckeyes vs Tigers in that final if so. Grrr
We're in the a Cotton Bowl would that mean BigXII or PAC referee crew? That would have meant Buckeyes vs Tigers in that final if so. Grrr
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If you're bored, FiveThirtyEight's playoff predictor is actually a fun tool. You can click through scenarios and watch teams' playoff and national title odds jump up and down.
After pushing a button, I'm pleased to report that the simplest "control your own destiny" scenario for Ohio State – winning every remaining game – would get the Buckeyes into the playoff with greater than 99% certainty.
So at the end of the day, things are really simple: just win, baby!
This is the same website with terrible predictive power based on political polls.
You'll notice, all of these polls etc. never put up the results of their claims. Either on field, or what the shadow committee will do.
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
I'm not sure the AP is political, but ESPN's FPI sure the hell is. I have no idea what ELO is, Electric Light Orchestra? I look at stuff like this just as something for amusement and board discussion purposes. Eleven Warriors even says it is just a "fun tool". Besides, their claims are a "moving target". Their "claims" keep changing each week. I'm guessing right after the CFP Committee announces the top 4 teams, they will have those 4 teams as 100% chance of making the playoffs.
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With respect to 538, I was talking about actual politics. 538 does a lot of political prediction making, and has infamous results. See 2016.
We see the error in those results much more glaringly.
Nobody sits down to parse out what the record of Bowl Games is relative to end-of-season rankings, let alone mid-season rankings. That goes for BCS computers, AP and Coach poll voters, CFP committee, ESPN' FPI, etc.
There's nobody following up and asking "Well how successful are these predictions" when it comes to football.
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bukIpower
Head Coach
Going to get real interesting if Alabama finds a way to beat UGA and OU/Cincy/OSU stays unbeaten.
You'd think it'd go
1. OU
2. Alabama
3. OSU
4. UGA
I refuse to believe that they'd put Cincinnati in after having only 1-2 decent wins and then the rest all AAC wins. That said they're #3 right now so we'll have to see them drop in the next few weeks. If they go into the final week ranked 1-3 I'm not sure the committee would leave them out.
I'm really hoping for...
1. UGA
2. OU
3. OSU
4. Cincinnati
I'd love to see the battle of Ohio but no way OU would be #4 if they win out.
You'd think it'd go
1. OU
2. Alabama
3. OSU
4. UGA
I refuse to believe that they'd put Cincinnati in after having only 1-2 decent wins and then the rest all AAC wins. That said they're #3 right now so we'll have to see them drop in the next few weeks. If they go into the final week ranked 1-3 I'm not sure the committee would leave them out.
I'm really hoping for...
1. UGA
2. OU
3. OSU
4. Cincinnati
I'd love to see the battle of Ohio but no way OU would be #4 if they win out.
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RhodeIslandBuck
This guy's a real jerk
I think the win and in thing is a bit overstated for OSU. We still need Oregon or Oklahoma to drop a game for it to be that secure IMO.
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Undefeated GeorgiaUndefeated OU1-loss Bama (#1 doesn’t happen)1-loss Georgia1-loss Ohio StateWho cares
If the Buckeyes win out, there are 3-4 wins on their schedule that are better than any of UC’s. While UO does have the head to head, I don’t see the comparison between the two being close enough for the committee to use it. That win over the Buckeyes will be Oregon’s entire resume; the Buckeyes will have 3-4 wins that are better than anything else on the Ducks’ resume.
Even if the committee were inclined to put the Ducks in ahead of the Buckeyes, the only way it keeps the Buckeyes out is if Oklahoma and Bama both win out the rest of the way.
The chances of the committee being so inclined are incredibly small
The chances of OU, UO, and Bama ALL winning out from here are incredibly small
The chance that all of the above is true (and it would have to be), is so small as to be unworthy of consideration
But it should be unworthy of consideration for another reason.
This is all predicated on the Buckeyes winning out, and that is going to be extremely difficult, even if they’re as good as I HOPE they are.
see the above post
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AJHawkfan
Wanna make $14 the hard way?
The way I see it:
1.) SEC Champ (Assuming they have less than 2 losses)
2.) B1G champ (Assuming they have less than 2 losses and is not a school named Iowa - in other words, tOSU, PSU, ttun or maybe even Sparty)
3.) Oklahoma (Assuming they are undefeated --> Big XII Champ)
4.) Juggalos (Assuming they are undefeated)
4a.) PAC 12 Champ (Assuming they have less than 2 losses)
4b.) Georgia (Assuming they lose the SEC CG to Bama and have only 1 loss)
The Juggalos are on the fringe of getting in now. They could really use some help to solidify their spot. Bottom line - as I see it - If Bama and Georgia both come out of season with 1 loss, they're both in and UC is going to be left out.
1.) SEC Champ (Assuming they have less than 2 losses)
2.) B1G champ (Assuming they have less than 2 losses and is not a school named Iowa - in other words, tOSU, PSU, ttun or maybe even Sparty)
3.) Oklahoma (Assuming they are undefeated --> Big XII Champ)
4.) Juggalos (Assuming they are undefeated)
4a.) PAC 12 Champ (Assuming they have less than 2 losses)
4b.) Georgia (Assuming they lose the SEC CG to Bama and have only 1 loss)
The Juggalos are on the fringe of getting in now. They could really use some help to solidify their spot. Bottom line - as I see it - If Bama and Georgia both come out of season with 1 loss, they're both in and UC is going to be left out.
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Just need one of the two SEC schools to get a 2nd loss and it should all take care of itself.
Worst case is UGA stays #1 all year and loses close to a 1 loss Bama in the SEC CG. That will knock someone out but if OSU runs the table from here, I don't think it's OSU.
Worst case is UGA stays #1 all year and loses close to a 1 loss Bama in the SEC CG. That will knock someone out but if OSU runs the table from here, I don't think it's OSU.
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