2021 CFB Playoff Discussion

[Jake]

MaxBuck top 5:

1. Georgia
2. tOSU
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma
5. Juggalos

I'll guarantee today's AP poll will look nothing like that. Bucks won't even be top 4. But it's October and the AP poll so who cares?

Just need to keep taking care of our own business.

 

[Jaxbuck]

It’ll be higher than usual this year, but it won’t end up as high as it appears right now

when the polls come out today, it is practically certain that half of the Buckeyes’ remaining regular season games are against top 10 teams. But there is almost no chance that all 3 of those teams will be in the top 10 when the Buckeyes play them.

PSU will likely still be in the top 10; their only game before October 30th is against Illinois, and they can probably win that even if Clifford is still out. But MSU and TTUN play each other the same day Ohio State plays PSU. Experience suggests that there’s no way the loser stays in the top 10. TTUN also has to play in Happy Valley before The Game. That’s a game they might lose, but it probably won’t be enough of a boost to get them back in the top 10 if they win it, and Sparty has NO opportunity to work their way back in to the top 10 before playing the Buckeyes if they should happen to lose to TTUN.

So Ohio State’s SOS will be good this year, but there will be plenty of opportunities for those with a financial interest in the SEC to use circular reasoning to claim it’s overblown.

And it doesn’t matter. If the Buckeyes handle their business, they’re in. The only thing SOS could affect is seeding.

Some have made decent arguments that seeding matters sometimes in the CFP. My response would be two-fold: 1) At worst seeding matters only marginally and it is not something that Ohio State fans should whine about imo, and 2) Seeding only really matters at the top, and the chances of Ohio State actually deserving the #1 seed this year are very, very small.

Don't forget that, barring a major upset, OSU gets a chance to apply a proper, prime time Rodgering to a #4ish Iowa team right before selection day.

That can't hurt. Well, us anyway. It's likely to hurt them quite a bit.

 

[RhodeIslandBuck]

I generally agree with the premise that if we win out, we're in. However, there is a worst case scenario that would make it a little tight IMO.

- Bama wins out, including the SEC CG

- Georgia wins out, minus a loss in the SEC CG

- Oregon wins out, including the Pac-12 CG

- Oklahoma wins out, including the Big 12 CG

While I feel (like most) that this scenario is unlikely, I'm just not sure how we would fit in, in that particular case. But also equally unsure how you could leave out a 12-1 buckeye squad playing at this high of a level. Regardless, I'm still hoping for any of these four teams to drop another, makes the path a bit more clear.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I generally agree with the premise that if we win out, we're in. However, there is a worse case scenario that would make it a little tight IMO.

- Bama wins out, including the SEC CG

- Georgia wins out, minus a loss in the SEC CG

- Oregon wins out, including the Pac-12 CG

- Oklahoma wins out, including the Big 12 CG

While I feel (like most) that this scenario is unlikely, I'm just not sure how we would fit in, in that particular case. But also equally unsure how you could leave out a 12-1 buckeye squad playing at this high of a level. Regardless, I'm still hoping for any of these four teams to drop another, makes the path a bit more clear.

We need to see if OSU looks like they are still playing at this level when they hit the tougher part of the schedule first and foremost. I agree that a Bama win over an undefeated UGA in the SEC CG is a bad outcome for the rest of CFB and that's why I wasn't overly thrilled Bama lost last night to be honest.

 

[BB73]

We need to see if OSU looks like they are still playing at this level when they hit the tougher part of the schedule first and foremost. I agree that a Bama win over an undefeated UGA in the SEC CG is a bad outcome for the rest of CFB and that's why I wasn't overly thrilled Bama lost last night to be honest.

I was pleased. If UGA wins out, I see Bama as needing a lot of help to have a case to be in the CFP. They should (emphasis on should) be behind a 1-loss Conference champ from the B1G, Big XII, and PAC-12. And an undefeated Cincy team would have a good argument to be ahead of 2-loss Bama also.

 

[RhodeIslandBuck]

I was pleased. If UGA wins out, I see Bama as needing a lot of help to have a case to be in the CFP. They should (emphasis on should) be behind a 1-loss Conference champ from the B1G, Big XII, and PAC-12. And an undefeated Cincy team would have a good argument to be ahead of 2-loss Bama also.

For sure, if Bama finishes 11-2 with no SEC championship, their chances are slim to none.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I was pleased. If UGA wins out, I see Bama as needing a lot of help to have a case to be in the CFP. They should (emphasis on should) be behind a 1-loss Conference champ from the B1G, Big XII, and PAC-12. And an undefeated Cincy team would have a good argument to be ahead of 2-loss Bama also.

Oh, if it’s two losses then fuck them, they are out.

best case from here is they pick up that second loss or UGA picks one up before SEC CG and it becomes an elimination game, not a guarantee of two teams getting in.

 

[kujirakira]

Somebody said yesterday that Iowa is basically "B1G Champ" placeholder, and I agree 100% with that sentiment.
It's up to Buckeyes to make it us. Thanks to events in last couple weeks, this team controls its own destiny again.

I was pleased. If UGA wins out, I see Bama as needing a lot of help to have a case to be in the CFP. They should (emphasis on should) be behind a 1-loss Conference champ from the B1G, Big XII, and PAC-12. And an undefeated Cincy team would have a good argument to be ahead of 2-loss Bama also.

We've seen this before, though. If they beat undefeated Georgia in CCG, leaving 2 1-loss SEC teams... both of them are headed to the Playoffs.

 

[heisman]

B1G contenders/pretenders matchup on Oct. 30.

PSU@OSU
ttun@Sparty

 

[BB73]

Somebody said yesterday that Iowa is basically "B1G Champ" placeholder, and I agree 100% with that sentiment.
It's up to Buckeyes to make it us. Thanks to events in last couple weeks, this team controls its own destiny again.



We've seen this before, though. If they beat undefeated Georgia in CCG, leaving 2 1-loss SEC teams... both of them are headed to the Playoffs.

Yes. But if they played each other as undefeated teams, they’d both be in no matter who won. Now there’s a chance that 1 of them will be out, and that’s a good thing to me.

 

[kujirakira]

Yes. But if they played each other as undefeated teams, they’d both be in no matter who won. Now there’s a chance that 1 of them will be out, and that’s a good thing to me.

Agree there. It's good any time one of them drops a game.
I just don't think 1 is ever enough. Need 2 losses to count them out. It would help a ton if Georgia finds a loss on their schedule somewhere. Then it's just the SEC champ that goes, which is how it should be anyway.

 

[Zurp]

MaxBuck top 5:

1. Georgia
2. tOSU
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma
5. Juggalos

Dang. We can do that?

Zurp Top 5:
1. Ohio State (because DUH!)
2. Akron - I think they're better than they're showing on the field.
3. Rutgers - Bad luck for them so far, but they're a top 3 team.
4. Maryland - I did have them up at #2, but they lost by a bunch this past weekend.
5. Alabama - I moved them up from #6 to #5. I know they lost, but so what? They lost to an SEC team.
6. Penn State - They were #5 on my poll. I couldn't have two #5 teams so I had to move them to #6.
7. Iowa - I moved them up from #20 to #7.
8. A bunch of women wearing lingerie - I'm pretty sure they couldn't catch a cold, but they certainly pass the eye test. Actually, screw it, move them to #1, and everyone else down a spot. Eye test it is. Pin their ears back and speed in space and stuff.
9. Actually, never mind. I win.

 

[ScriptOhio]

The Iowa Hawkeyes earned a 23-20 come-from-behind victory over Penn State. While the Hawkeyes came in at No. 2 in the AP Top 25, Brett McMurphy of The Action Network has the Hawkeyes as the No. 1 seed in his College Football Playoff seeding projections. McMurphy has Iowa at the top, facing No. 4 Georgia in the Cotton Bowl. In the Orange Bowl, No. 2 Oklahoma faces No. 3 Alabama.

Just sayin':

1) McMurphy is still an ass. I rank him up there on the Mt. Rushmore of All Time Asshole Talking Heads with Mark May and Trev Alberts.

2) If the Ped State QB (i.e. Clifford) didn't get hurt Iowa would not have won.

3) Hell, scUM might actually be better than Iowa this year.

 

[Systems_id]

Dang. We can do that?

Zurp Top 5:
1. Ohio State (because DUH!)
2. Akron - I think they're better than they're showing on the field.
3. Rutgers - Bad luck for them so far, but they're a top 3 team.
4. Maryland - I did have them up at #2, but they lost by a bunch this past weekend.
5. Alabama - I moved them up from #6 to #5. I know they lost, but so what? They lost to an SEC team.
6. Penn State - They were #5 on my poll. I couldn't have two #5 teams so I had to move them to #6.
7. Iowa - I moved them up from #20 to #7.
8. A bunch of women wearing lingerie - I'm pretty sure they couldn't catch a cold, but they certainly pass the eye test. Actually, screw it, move them to #1, and everyone else down a spot. Eye test it is. Pin their ears back and speed in space and stuff.
9. Actually, never mind. I win.

Sir I believe you left out plucky Tulsa.

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Need to root hard for UGA to pick up a loss before the SEC!CG. If Bama and them both go in with one loss, that should effectively end any ESPN hopes of two sec! teams getting in.